Inga Tuigamala: Time to back the underdogs

Opinion

History says it is wisest to back the home sides when it comes to the Super 14 semifinals, but rules are made to be broken.

I'm picking victories for the Hurricanes and Crusaders, which would mean this year's competition coming down to an epic battle in the capital.

The Chiefs gained a little edge by beating the Hurricanes in Hamilton during the regulation games, but Canes coach Colin Cooper would have learned plenty from that.

I've had to eat my words already this season by doubting the Chiefs' credentials, but the loss of three key players has really hurt their chances. The Hurricanes will also be really hurting from their recent defeat in Hamilton.

The loss of Richard Kahui, in particular, is huge. He is the glue in that Chiefs backline and, in my opinion, his presence has brought out the best in others such as Stephen Donald.

As an aside, Donald has proved himself the best of the New Zealand first five-eighths this season and almost booked his place as the All Blacks' No 10 while Dan Carter is sidelined.

I believe the Crusaders have got the nous and proven record in pressure situations to do the business in Pretoria.

There won't be anything flash from them, but if their pack can front up to the Bulls I really believe they will upset the odds.

The Bulls showed two years ago, when they won the title, how they really lift when they get to this stage. They will be absolutely formidable.

But the Crusaders are the best defensive team in the competition by some stretch and they know better than any team how to play finals rugby. They are virtually injury-free and have been grinding towards the semifinals, which means they are well-practised in the type of rugby that you need to win these games.

I don't think the travel factor will bring the Crusaders down, either. When you get to this point in the season, so close to a final appearance, the adrenalin takes over and compensates for potential lethargy.

A new Super 15 has been unveiled, and it will be a waiting game to see if it succeeds.

I wish I could offer some brilliant crystal-ball gazing and solutions to the problem of the long seasons which are draining our players. But I am as baffled as the bloke in the butcher shop.

I was sitting around with some friends discussing the new format and we had trouble getting our heads around the whole thing.

I like the conference idea because it will keep travel to a minimum.

But it still seems to me that the season will run from February to November, which gives the top players very little time to recover properly for the next season. And it also seems that the workload on the best players may actually increase slightly due to the revamp.

NZRU chief executive Steve Tew says protecting the All Blacks is the priority.

The NZRU also says it is very conscious about looking after the grassroots and the NPC, but I'm not sure how this system does that.

Tew said a compromise was reached between the Sanzar partners, but how far should you compromise? What is New Zealand rugby really going to gain out of this format?

The All Blacks are also being asked to play all over the world, which only adds to the strain. I know that earning dollars is paramount, but to what extent do you take that? There will always be consequences.

I am far from convinced about the overall merits of the Super 15 and the way the game is being run. Time will tell.