Gregor Paul: Overseas pool only a part solution

Jonny Wilkinson. Photo / Getty Images

The offshore market represents a part-solution to a whole problem. Next year New Zealand will have to find 20 new professional players as Super 15 squads expand from 28 to a minimum of 30 and maximum of 32. Every coach will want 32 - but from where will they come?

Places for two foreign players a franchise will help, although it's difficult to believe that, initially at least, we will see the maximum 10 foreigners contracted next year.

Certainly not 10 high quality players, as finance will be the big problem. Juan Martin Hernandez and Freddie Michalak had short stints at the Sharks in recent seasons. Both came for one year because, even though the South Africans pay well by Southern Hemisphere standards, they can't match what's on offer in France.

Michalak scurried back to Toulouse to replenish his war chest after one campaign and Hernandez will do the same - having just signed for Racing Metro in Paris.

These two and Jonny Wilkinson, Brian O'Driscoll and James Hook are the sort who add real value. They will put bums on seats, build credibility and make visible contributions on the field.

If Wilkinson earns a reputed €408,000 ($760,000) a season after tax at Toulon, is he going to come to New Zealand?

Plenty of Australians and South Africans will fancy it. The problem with that is it creates a merry-go-round where the talent pool doesn't expand, components simply swap places.

Some Argentinians will come, but not the big names and not players who will either add commercial value or be discernibly better than domestic options.

It can't be ignored that New Zealand teams will be shopping at the same time as the Melbourne Rebels, who have deeper pockets.

With the Rebels launching and New Zealand squads expanding, there are places for 50 more players next season.

That seems ambitious when the Highlanders have half a squad who are not up to it; the Lions have a whole squad who are nowhere near up to it; the Cheetahs are barely clinging on and the Force, despite a win against the Crusaders, are not much more than cannon fodder.

Expansion will only dilute the quality. The Australians will pinch each other's players and the Brumbies' and Reds' progress could stall as they are weakened to prop up the Force and Rebels.

The Highlanders are unlikely to be any better off, as the other four New Zealand teams will be able to protect 28 players each instead of 24 as has been the case. The Highlanders have lived off scraps, but not much will be swept from the table this time.

For all the drama of the final weekend, there were only six teams chasing four spots.

Next year there will be an extended playoff and the danger is the same six teams will be locked into place weeks before the end because the other teams really are just making up the numbers.

The foreign legion: potential recruitment targets

BLUES

Remain short of depth and quality at first five.

Jonny Wilkinson is committed to Toulon for another season and will want to have a crack at the 2011 World Cup. But what then? Could Auckland be the final chapter in his career?

Quade Cooper is off contract with the Reds this year and while the Force have offered him a massive deal, he is a Maori boy from Tokoroa. Would need to be sure he could still play for the Wallabies if he shifted.

Ronan O'Gara is committed to Munster until June 2011. But after then, he could be open to a move with his Ireland place under threat and virtually all the other boxes of his career ticked.

CHIEFS

Still don't have a rock solid, scary tight five, so will have an eye out for props and locks.

Danie Rossouw is a quality lock who struggles for game time at the Bulls behind Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha. He has signed with the South African Rugby Union until the end of this year. A tough, uncompromising man who would give the Chiefs an edge.

Mark Chisholm is a veteran Wallaby lock who has slipped down the Australian pecking order but who could do a big job for the Chiefs. He's reliable, experienced and street smart.

HURRICANES

No obvious weaknesses but could be in the market for an international name to help regenerate crowds at Westpac Stadium.

CRUSADERS

Much like the Hurricanes but will be aware that several of their key players could be moving on after next year.

HIGHLANDERS

Are in need of quality across the board but particularly in the midfield.

Morgan Turinui is a seasoned pro who doesn't appear to feature in the Reds' long-term thinking.

Doppies la Grange has been outstanding for the Lions at second five and might just see the Highlanders as an upgrade - or at least a team with more potential to win games.

Irish midfielder Gordon D'Arcy is off contract with Leinster next month. He's being hunted by the Ospreys but a big offer to come south may be of interest.