Gregor Paul: Circle this trio then it's anyone's guess

Gregor Paul

We are back in calculator territory - although this year's Super 14 permutations are more about working out the final order rather than the identity of the four playoff contenders.

Assuming the Bulls beat the Western Force and the Sharks beat the Highlanders overnight, those two and the Hurricanes are going to be mighty hard to budge out of the semifinals. You'd go as far as to say they are safe.

The draw has made it kind of easy to understand how things are poised. The final wash-up will be determined by the result this week in Hamilton where the Hurricanes play the Chiefs and the following week in Durban when the Sharks host the Bulls.

It's a bit dangerous, especially as this year we have seen the underdog bite at surprising times, but let's make the assumption the Hurricanes will beat the Reds in their final game and the Chiefs will beat the Brumbies in theirs.

Let's also be so bold as to take for granted the Bulls will beat the Cheetahs and score four tries in Pretoria this week and the Sharks will topple the Waratahs.

Now a much bigger risk to take is to believe that the Chiefs will have been victorious this morning in Cape Town. But let's say scenario one is that they have.

In scenario one, the Hurricanes are guaranteed to finish no lower than second if they beat the Chiefs. They could only be caught by the Bulls who will need to take maximum points from their last three games.

If the Hurricanes take maximum points from their last two games, they win. If they win both and take just one bonus point they are likely to finish top on points differential even if the Bulls take the maximum available to them.

The Chiefs in this scenario could get a maximum of 44 points which would leave them third ahead of the Sharks whose potential maximum if they lose to the Bulls is 43 points.

If the Hurricanes win in Hamilton and the Bulls lose in Durban in this scenario then the Hurricanes will be top, the Sharks could finish second if they take all their bonus points, the Bulls third if they do the same and the Chiefs fourth.

If the Chiefs beat the Hurricanes then they could top the table if the Sharks beat the Bulls. In scenario one, the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Bulls and Sharks can't be ousted from the top four - they will all qualify with their final positions determined by bonus points and the outcomes in Hamilton and Durban.

But the complexion of the competition will be entirely different if the Chiefs happen to lose to the Stormers this morning.

If that eventuates, the Crusaders, Waratahs and even, at a push, the Blues, will all come into the equation.

The Chiefs have to take something out of this morning's clash in Cape Town - even a losing bonus point will be critical. If they take nothing, the maximum points they could accumulate would be 42 - the same total the Waratahs and Crusaders could both reach if they win their last two games.

Very few would fancy the Waratahs to score a four-try victory in Durban so they are maybe not the real threat. The Crusaders, however, have to play the Reds at home and the Blues away.

A maximum points win in Christchurch is achievable as it is in Auckland given the porous state of the Blues defence.

The third scenario is that there is a major upset - the Reds beat the Hurricanes or the Bulls are lowered by the Cheetahs. If that happens forget the calculator. Forget trying to make sense of anything - it will go to the wire and we won't know anything for sure until the final whistle is blown in the final round-robin game in Durban.