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KEY POINTS:
Only a fool would write the Crusaders off for the Super 14 title. So here I am, folks, with a pointy hat on my head and dribbling from the corner of my keyboard.
Call it a hunch. Call it mad lunacy. Call it what you like.
Someone has got to write them off, so I'll take up the cudgel.
Because not writing them off is so old hat. Why bother sitting on the fence when there is the prospect of such a thrilling fall to be enjoyed. Here goes. The Crusaders won't win the Super 14 this year, not without Dan Carter's all-round excellence and Robbie Deans magically pushing the right buttons whenever they play poorly.
Deans' response to the bad days has been one of the fascinating and enduring hallmarks of the Crusaders' run. When it came to them needing to bounce back, you could just about put the house on it.
Carter not only directed the traffic, worked the counterattacks, picked perfect moments to run and kicked a lot of points, but he was also one of the smartest inside back defenders in the Super 14. Losing Carter is like losing two people, and two very good people at that.
They had enough classy old hands to compensate for such losses in the past, but not any more.
The Crusaders of 2008 punched above their weight to win the title so convincingly in a campaign in which they only lost two games.
Take Deans, Carter and Ali Williams out of the 2008 side and they are just another team in the pack. Add in Corey Flynn's dodgy lineout throwing plus the loss of the consummate prop Greg Somerville and other trusty warhorses, and the chinks in their armour are just waiting to be turned into decent cracks.
When other sides realise the truth of the matter, they'll move in for the kill. And if Todd Blackadder's mob do win the Super 14, the rest of the comp should be ashamed of itself. Because this is the year to bring the Crusaders down.
The rest of the Super 14 will be spared the blushes, though, because this Crusaders outfit hasn't got what it takes.
The game is speeding up and Blackadder's men will find it increasingly difficult to string the wins together by slowing the game down. They've always got a chance with Richie McCaw on the job, but he can't be everywhere, even though at times he appears to be just that.
When it comes to the Crusaders' favourite weapon, the counterattack, they don't have the overall backline class to make the opposition pay.
The Crusaders didn't win it on Saturday, the Chiefs lost it.
Nothing summed up the Chiefs more perfectly than the incident where Sitiveni Sivivatu ripped the ball forward from a fallen red-and-black tackler, then looked aghast at being pinged for a knock on.
This is what continually brings the Chiefs down - an inattention to small details and a failure to understand how they all add up to a pretty big picture.
The visitors were positioned for a final-quarter charge but were their usual dopey selves, making sporadic busts before quickly running out of patience as the Crusaders defended cleverly without conceding penalties.
On the face of it, the Crusaders started the new season in the way they love to finish it off, playing the percentages well and defending stoutly when the Chiefs mustered up the odd threat in the final quarter.
But that backline, apart from Casey Laulala on his good days, just isn't a big enough threat in the modern era of permanently experimental open rugby laws. Colin Slade is a poor man's Andrew Mehrtens, or a quite rich man's Jimmy Gopperth as we say in the north. Stephen Brett is overrated and can't tackle. Andy Ellis is a lightweight trundler who is just made for All Black trivia questions. Leon MacDonald has been a wonderful footballer but brings a battered head and ageing legs to a position that requires loads of running.
As for the Chiefs, they have turned losing the opening game into an art form. The Chiefs only wake up in about round seven when someone has a brainwave on the motivational front and pins the points table to the dressing-room wall.
There are drunken boxers in Chicago gutters who've got better round one records than the Chiefs. Ian Foster's side will play a lot better than they did on Saturday, and this will probably happen some time in April.
This will be a year of re-evaluation for the Crusaders and new coach Blackadder. If the Crusaders win the title in 2009, I'll eat my pointy hat.
