Chris Rattue: Long-haul flight will be killer for brave Chiefs

Opinion

Hail the mighty Bulls as the Super 14 champions because the Chiefs have no chance of winning the final in Pretoria.

Fog may have descended on the Hamilton semifinal but the final scenario is as clear as a South African summer's day.

The Bulls and Chiefs are deserved finalists but the home side should be unbackable favourites to take out their second title in three years. The Chiefs' chances are about the same as that of a Welshman holding the Webb Ellis trophy aloft at Eden Park in two years' time.

Two fabulously tense semifinals with two deserving victors - that was the story of the weekend.

The Crusaders made a reasonable fist of giving the Bulls a fright but didn't attack with enough verve to deserve robbing the top seeds of a shot in the final. Semifinals under this format are akin to a shield challenge with the visitors needing to take the game away from the hosts.

At least the underdog Crusaders were gallant in an extremely tough assignment, but the Hurricanes were disappointing in Hamilton against weakened opponents. The Chiefs could have won by more.

The 2009 final will reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the Super tournament.

Loftus Versfeld is a magnificent theatre, a cliff-face of support for the home troops and such a graveyard for visiting teams that even the cynical Crusaders couldn't defend a substantial semifinal lead.

The continued Super presence of rugby-rich South Africa, whose future participation has hung in the balance, is essential on one hand because it gives the tournament a wonderful international flavour allied to the powerful drama that can emanate out of their great stadiums.

Yet the travel factor, including the late arrangements which are necessary in a semifinal situation, means one team may be seriously disadvantaged to the point that the final is a serious mismatch.

The danger about this season's ultimate game, and it is a significant one, is that the Chiefs, and thus the occasion, will be crushed.

The odds are so heavily stacked against the Chiefs that the final is in mortal danger as a credible finish to the tournament, with the Bulls set to prey on an undermanned opponent whose body parts have already burst to a dangerous degree, and whose lungs will do the same on the high veldt.

The weekend's gripping semifinals only reinforced the view that the classy, if haphazard, Bulls will be unbeatable in the final.

The Chiefs made much of the running in their semifinal win over the Hurricanes but Stephen Donald - still not a dead-set test pivot to these eyes - failed to orchestrate the jamming of foot on the throat a la Morne Steyn in Pretoria.

Injuries have rendered the Chiefs as potential grand final cannon-fodder.

Not only are number one prop Ben May and running halfback Brendon Leonard missing, but Richard Kahui and Sione Lauaki will travel with fitness doubts and the Chiefs' key strike weapon Sitiveni Sivivatu is sidelined.

The Bulls were not only in a rampant mood in patches against the Crusaders, but first five-eighths Steyn epitomised a cut-throat attitude in the pursuit of victory through a series of drop goals.

The rebuilding Crusaders have been resilient and courageous, but simply didn't deserve to progress any further. They are under no obligation to play a more expansive game, but it was unlikely their relentless kick chasing tactics and tight formations would produce enough points to topple the Bulls at home.

These Crusaders have a vaguely parasitic attitude, encouraging opponents to risk a level of attacking incompetence that they themselves are not prepared to take. These Crusaders do not play a brand of rugby that deserves to win the title, and it would have been an indictment on the Super 14 if a team had not risen to the occasion and sent the champions packing.

As to the other semifinal, the Hurricanes showed a concerning frailty against the struggling Reds in their final regulation match and that continued into the semifinal. There must be doubts about whether Colin Cooper is the man for the coaching job any more, let alone an All Black prospect.

This was the year for the Hurricanes to strike, yet once again Cooper could only take them so far and not awfully close to winning the title.

South African rugby is a strange mix of excellence and the inexplicable. In the lead-up to yesterday morning's match, the TV broadcaster attempted to play a clip of this year's meeting between the Bulls and Crusaders in Christchurch, but came up with a video of the Crusaders and Blues instead.

The Bulls got over their early blues to storm to victory.

Only overconfidence and distractions can prevent them claiming another victory on Sunday morning. Their lineout - not at its best against the Crusaders - will be primed to sack the Chiefs, whose blunders in this department helped keep the Hurricanes in the game on Friday night.

Steyn will be brimming with self-belief, while halfback Fourie du Preez and number eight Pierre Spies were magnificent in the semifinal and should be the fulcrum again.

Ian Foster's latest Chiefs unit has a stout heart, no doubt helped by the presence of players from the Robbie Deans-inspired school of excellence in Christchurch.

May and locks Kevin O'Neill and Craig Clarke have infused these Chiefs with true southern grit but it won't be enough in Pretoria.