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Home / Sport / Rugby / Super Rugby

How the Hurricanes became one of the elite

By Niall Anderson
NZ Herald·
26 May, 2015 02:30 AM6 mins to read

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The 2015 Hurricanes are on track to join an elite group of Super Rugby squads. Photo / Getty Images

The 2015 Hurricanes are on track to join an elite group of Super Rugby squads. Photo / Getty Images

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The Hurricanes are on track to join an elite group of Super Rugby teams, and they have a number of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of winning their first Super Rugby title.

Having won 12 of their 13 contests so far this season, the Hurricanes' points differential of +143 is also a key predictor of future success.

Points differential has been proven to be a better indicator at forecasting future results than simple win-loss record, but both new-age and traditional thinking paint positive signs for the Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes' points differential per game currently sits at 11 - an elite figure which 13 sides in Super Rugby history have reached while also leading the competition in points differential.

Out of those 13 sides, 10 have gone on to win the title, with only the 2010 Stormers, 2000 Brumbies and 1996 Bulls failing to raise the trophy at the end of the season.

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Tellingly, the Stormers and Bulls had to go on the road in the playoffs that season, with only the 2000 Brumbies not making the most of the combined powers of a high points differential and home advantage, falling 20-19 to the Crusaders in the final.

Additionally, the Hurricanes are currently 13 points clear at the top of the Super Rugby ladder - a feat which if maintained has never been accomplished before.

Similarly, they can potentially join a select group of teams to have gone through the season with one loss or fewer, joining Crusaders teams from 2006 and 2002, and the 2003 and 1997 Blues sides.

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How have the Hurricanes managed to make the leap from a side which has missed the playoffs for five consecutive seasons to a side with a chance to be remembered as one of the best?

While there are an avalanche of off-field and intangible elements which have already been or cannot be quantified, but statistics from the Herald Rugby Stats Centre with Opta can also give a strong picture of how Chris Boyd's side have managed to be so dominant this season.

How They're Doing It

A world-class backline

The Hurricanes backline has been key to their side's success all season, and it is reflected in their stats. The Canes force their opponents into the most missed tackles in the comp and also beat the most defenders, with Julian Savea (40), Ma'a Nonu (33) and Nehe Milner-Skudder (29) all proving hard to contain

The Canes also have gained the most metres as a team in the Super XV, with Savea (907), Milner-Skudder (717) and Beauden Barrett (612) all being dangerous open-field runners.

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Efficient and productive tackling

Due to the high intensity, end-to-end pace that the Hurricanes enforce upon opponents with their attacking style of play, the Wellington side also make a lot of tackles - the most in the league in fact, with 133.2 per game. They do this without sacrificing accuracy, making the tackles at a strong 88% rate.

A dominant scrum

At scrum time, the Hurricanes forward pack show their worth. The Canes have won the second most scrums so far this season (7.0 per game), but more impressively have lost the fewest (just 0.3 per game). That makes for a 96% success rate which leads the competition by a significant margin.

Phenomenal stamina

This is probably the most impressive element of the Hurricanes' success.

The Wellingtonians have scored a whopping 16 tries in the last 20 mins of games, four more than the next best side. However, they've conceded only 6 in that last-quarter time frame, making a difference of +10, which drastically outguns the next best side - the Stormers - who are only at +4.

Can They Sustain It?

It is a relatively tough road home for the Hurricanes, who have three Kiwi derbies to finish the season, all against teams with impressive points differentials.

The Crusaders (+90), Highlanders (+89) and Chiefs (+87) all make for tough opponents, and even though the Hurricanes have beaten all three before it is probably unlikely they continue beating sides at the +11 per game average they've accomplished so far this season.

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There are also two factors which the Hurricanes can be considered to have caught some luck with so far this season.

Goal kicking

Opponents kick a just a 64% clip against them - and before you raise the possibility of the windy Westpac Stadium resulting in poor goal-kicking, opponents have happened to kick at 77% at Westpac this season, meaning the Canes' good fortune has come on the road.

Only one other side has opponents kicking below a 70% success rate against them, and this is a trait which is more luck than skill - as (once the try or penalty is conceded) Hurricanes players cannot control how successful an opponent can be at their attempt at goal.

Record in close games

This may offend some traditional rugby sensibilities, but winning close games is not proven to be a repeatable skill year over year.

So far this season, the Hurricanes are 6-1 in games decided by seven points or less. As much as we like to think this is "the clutch gene" or a sign of mental strength, nearly every side evens out over time to having a 50% winning ratio in close games.

Of course, if the Hurricanes keep blowing sides out in big wins, they may not have to worry about impending statistical regression in close games.

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The Verdict

So, how should we rate the Hurricanes looking towards the Super Rugby playoffs?

Although their dominance is likely to slightly fade late in the season with tough opponents on the schedule - meaning they are unlikely to reach the elite group of 13 mentioned above - the Hurricanes are still set to be the overwhelming favourites come playoff time.

Their talent-laden backline, dominance at scrum time, exceptional stamina and a small dose of luck have led to the success-deprived side being one of the best Kiwi sides in recent years - and a deserving contender to pick up their first Super Rugby title.

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