Highlanders captain Ben Smith. Photo / Photosport.
By Alex McLeod
Eight sides have battled their way through the convoluted 18-team Super Rugby competition to qualify for what is set to be an extremely entertaining playoff series, beginning this week.
With the first pair of these quarter-finalists preparing for battle this Friday, Alex McLeod runs through the eight teams left standing, ranking them from the sides he believes are least to most likely to claim the 22nd Super Rugby title.
Seeded: 8th
TAB odds to win title: $126
The Sharks could perhaps be described as the best team in Super Rugby history to have never won a title.
That sentiment that is unlikely to change this year after the club finished the regular season in the eighth and final qualification spot, meaning they will play every one of their playoff matches away from home.
The number of playoff matches they are likely to play in will probably be restricted to just one however, as they face the top-seeded Lions for a second consecutive week at Ellis Park on Sunday morning (NZT).
The Sharks fell to a 27-10 defeat to the 2016 finalists at home in Durban on the weekend, and that scoreline can be expected to inflate as the Lions will look to play fast and expansive rugby on their own turf.
Unfortunately for the KwaZulu-Natal side, their 2017 playoff picture looks destined to be a one-and-done scenario.
Player to watch: Curwin Bosch
Predicted result: 35-17 quarter-final loss to Lions in Johannesburg
Seeded: 4th
TAB odds to win title: $81
By virtue of qualifying for the playoffs in a position that allows them to host their quarter-final match against the Hurricanes on Friday, the Brumbies are placed slightly ahead of the Sharks in these rankings.
Where they are placed on this list is irrelevant however, as they will get rolled by an in-form Hurricanes side that boasts the best attack in the competition.
The Brumbies, like every Australian side this year, have been well below-par, and if it wasn't for the ultra-flawed structure that exists within Super Rugby, the ACT club would not have even made the playoffs with their 34 points from a 6-9 record.
Luckily for them, Super Rugby requires at least one Australian side to feature in the playoffs, and they just so happen to be the best of a very lacklustre bunch from across the Tasman.
They now face a side that has scored more than twice the number of tries they have (89 to 41), features the joint top tryscorers in the competition thus far in Ngani Laumape and Vince Aso (both 14 tries), and is welcoming back the likes of Beauden Barrett from illness and Dane Coles from a series of long-term injuries.
The only bright spot for the Brumbies will be the return of leukaemia survivor Christian Lealiifano, who is expected play in his first Super Rugby match in over a year.
Player to watch: Henry Speight
Predicted result: 49-12 quarter-final loss to Hurricanes in Canberra
Seeded: 3rd
TAB odds to win title: $51
The Stormers are one of only two foreign sides to defeat New Zealand opposition this season (the other being the Sunwolves, of course), scoring wins over both the Chiefs and the Blues in Cape Town.
The South Africans will have to continue this trend if they are to progress any further in this year's competition.
They have the pace and athletic prowess out wide to come away with a victory, with the likes of of Dillyn Lleyds, SP Marais, Seabelo Senatla and Cheslin Kolbe proving their worth at various stages throughout the season.
The forward pack will also be tough to handle, with Springbok locks Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit providing steel and grit, while loose forwards Siya Kolisi, Sikhumbuzo Notshe and Nizaam Carr have all been impressive.
The Chiefs should head into this clash as favourites, but to completely rule out a semi-final appearance from the Stormers would be unwise.
Player to watch: Dillyn Lleyds
Predicted result: 29-24 quarter-final loss to Chiefs in Cape Town
Seeded: 2nd
TAB odds to win title: $3.10
How can the best Kiwi side with a 14-1 record be listed outside of the top two in a power rankings heading into the Super Rugby finals?
As both Justin Marshall and Chris Rattue alluded to in their columns earlier this week, the recent British and Irish Lions tour has played a big part in slowing the momentum that the Super Rugby powerhouses previously had.
Prior to the arrival of the Lions, the Crusaders were sitting on top of the table with a 14-0 record, beaming after an 83rd minute Mitch Hunt drop goal that sunk the Highlanders to a 25-22 defeat at AMI Stadium.
Fast forward six and bit weeks later, and the Christchurch-based outfit head into the playoffs on the back of two consecutive defeats to the Lions and the Hurricanes - the worst time to concede back-to-back losses for title hopefuls.
As a result of their 31-22 casualty at the hands of the Canes, their spot at the summit of the Super Rugby table has been handed over to the Lions, and instead of being gifted the chance to face a lowly Sharks outfit in the quarter-finals, they now have to earn a semi-final spot against the in-form Highlanders in a tough South Island derby.
Their southern neighbours, who defeated the British and Irish Lions and looked lethal at times against the Reds on Friday, will be seeking redemption after two late losses to the Crusaders this season, a result of which they are very capable of attaining.
Player to watch: Matt Todd
Predicted result: 19-17 quarter-final loss to the Highlanders in Christchurch
Seeded: 6th
TAB odds to win title: $8
Despite a victory over the Brumbies in Hamilton on Saturday evening, the Chiefs weren't able to escape a long haul trip to South Africa to open their playoffs, and will now face the Stormers in Cape Town.
They are favourites to redeem themselves for their 34-26 hiccup against the same opposition in round seven, but the problem for the two-time champions is the return flight back to New Zealand for the semi-final, should they emerge victorious from the Republic.
History shows that travelling one-way to South Africa from New Zealand - or vice versa - isn't always detrimental to a team's playoff hopes, but it is the return flight a week later that is the killer.
The Chiefs were the victims of such a scenario this time last year when they pummeled the Stormers 60-21 at the Newlands in the quarter-final, but suffered a 25-6 defeat at the hands of the Hurricanes in Wellington a week later.
This year, they face the daunting prospect of playing either the Crusaders or Highlanders back in New Zealand should they claim a quarter-final win over the Stormers for a second successive year.
If the Chiefs are to stand any chance of winning a third Super Rugby title under departing coach Dave Rennie, they will rely heavily on the services of electric pairing James Lowe and Damian McKenzie in the backline, as well as the ever-impressive Brodie Retallick in the forward pack.
Player to watch: Damian McKenzie
Predicted result: 25-21 semi-final loss to Highlanders in Hamilton
Seeded: 1st
TAB odds to win title: $2.90
The boys from Johannesburg are listed as the favourites to claim their maiden Super Rugby title, and it's not surprising to see why.
Like last year, they have performed with supreme attacking ability, have conceded a Super Rugby season record of just 268 points, and have by far been the best side in the competition from outside of New Zealand.
Furthermore, they have secured home advantage for the entirety of their playoff campaign by finishing the regular season at the top of the table, a feat they let slip away in their last game of the season against the Jaguares last year.
With players such as Courtnall Skosan, Andries Coetzee, Malcolm Marx, Kwagga Smith, Elton Jantjies and Jaco Kriel in their squad, they have good strength in every position throughout their side, a key reason as to why they have cruised to the top of the Super Rugby standings.
While they possess excess amounts of talent and have the luxury of home crowd advantage in the playoffs, there is one thing that could be the undoing of Lions' Super Rugby campaign: they are yet to face New Zealand opposition this season.
For all their dominance in the African conference this year, they have only had to play underwhelming sides such as the Cheetahs, Bulls and Sunwolves, as well as clubs from the severely underachieving Australian conference.
The only teams of any real credibility that have challenged them this year are the Sharks, Stormers and Jaguares, who dished out the Lions' only defeat this season back in round three.
Of those sides, only the Stormers have faced the Kiwi outfits this season, and they, unlike the Lions, will be better prepared for the playoffs because of it.
No doubt the Lions have the ability to foot it with the New Zealand franchises for the full 80 minutes on their own turf, but they will meet their match when they face the Hurricanes what should be an epic semi-final battle at Ellis Park.
Player to watch: Kwagga Smith
Predicted result: 30-26 semi-final loss to the Hurricanes in Johannesburg
Seeded: 5th
TAB odds to win title: $4
The defending champions are looking good going into the playoffs, with a win over the Crusaders on Saturday showing that they have the ability to win high-stake matches against high-class opponents.
It is that ability that is going to take them deep into Super Rugby playoffs.
A huge defensive effort will be required from any team if they want to dethrone the Hurricanes, as the Wellingtonians are arguably the best attacking side in the competition's history.
596 points scored, a points difference of 324 and 89 tries are all Super Rugby season records, while Ngani Laumape and Vince Aso are both just one try away from equaling Joe Roff and Rico Gear's record of 15 tries in a Super Rugby season.
Throw the likes of the Barrett and Savea brothers, Nehe Milner-Skudder, TJ Perenara, Vaea Fifita, Brad Shields and Dane Coles into the mix, and the Hurricanes have the make up of a team that could win back-to-back titles.
The only downfall they face is that they will endure the dreaded return trip home from South Africa if they make the final.
An easy win against the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday will see them travel to the Republic to play either the Lions or Sharks, most likely the former.
Should they win in Johannesburg, they would then fly all the way back to New Zealand to face a Kiwi opponent that will have had minimal, if any, travel throughout the playoffs.
For the same reason that the Chiefs will fall short at the semi-final hurdle, the Hurricanes will come up short of a second successive title due to the travel demands they are set to come up against in the forthcoming weeks.
Player to watch: Ngani Laumape
Predicted result: 26-20 grand final loss to the Highlanders in Wellington
Seeded: 7th
TAB odds to win title: $10
Many people will be scoffing at this somewhat bold prediction that the men from the deep south will win their second title in three years against teams like the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Lions.
However, there is good reason to believe that the 2015 champions can add another title to their name.
They head into their quarter-final clash against the Crusaders in Christchurch off the back of a dramatic win over the British and Irish Lions and 40-17 thumping of the Reds, while their hosts go into the match off two losses.
Tony Brown's men are timing their run to the playoffs nicely thanks to the performances of men such as Tom Franklin, Liam Squire, Waisake Naholo and Malakai Fekitoa, and will be desperate to snatch a win over their rivals following two heartbreaking defeats earlier in the season.
The famed strength of character within this Highlanders side is as strong as it has ever been, as was exemplified during their club record nine-match unbeaten run.
Expect them to utilise this vital trait of theirs to relish the underdog tag that they are so frequently labelled with to record a revenge win over the Crusaders on Saturday.
From there onwards, the travel demands required from both the Chiefs and Hurricanes heading into the semi-final and final should be too much for them to cope with, with Squire and Naholo expected to lead the charge to glory.
This gives the Highlanders a prime opportunity to score revenge victories over their opponents in Hamilton and Wellington, allowing them to take home their second ever Super Rugby crown.
Player to watch: Waisake Naholo
Predicted result: 26-20 grand final win against the Hurricanes in Wellington
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