Deep down, everyone who has had any prolonged exposure to Southern Hemisphere rugby in the last decade knows Australia can’t sustainably run five professional teams.
The Australians know this too, but a combination of pride, stubbornness, misplaced ambition - and possibly also a sense of belligerence to not be bulliedby their bigger-little brother across the Tasman - has seen the administration doggedly scrap to keep five professional teams alive no matter the cost, no matter the talent dilution, and no matter that the root cause of fan disengagement has been the inevitable lack of competitiveness which has resulted from living so far beyond their means.
That the Australians have followed a self-destructive strategy would be entirely their business but for the fact they are also a vital part of the New Zealand rugby ecosystem, which has meant the madness across the ditch has left the game here a kind of victim of second-hand smoking.
Australia’s problems are New Zealand’s problems, and so the financial predicament in which the Rebels currently find themselves – with reported debts of $20 million and cash assets of $17,000 – is as much a concern in Auckland as it is in Melbourne and is the reason why there was a sense of calamity hanging over the Super Rugby launch this week.
But perhaps the seemingly imminent collapse of the Rebels is not the disaster it is being portrayed as, but in fact the incontrovertible evidence required to force a hard change in attitudes and bring Australia and New Zealand together in a genuinely unified partnership, and could be seen as a golden opportunity to quickly fix many of Super Rugby’s enduring faults.
That Super Rugby has seen steady declines in its overall attendances and broadcast audiences is largely, if not entirely, due to hubris and the decisions that were made to keep adding teams to the competition between 2006 and 2016.
Expansion and globalisation killed tribalism, created disjointed scheduling, placed an immense travel burden on the players, sent costs spiralling and created a labour demand for which there was not a supply.
The net effect was the creation of enormous disparity – where it required a suspension of disbelief to maintain any level of interest in about 90 per cent of the fixtures such was their one-sided predictability.
The Melbourne Rebels' 2024 jersey may be their last. Photo / Getty Images
The arrival of Covid and the enforced creation of Super Rugby Pacific has alleviated the travel burden and created a universally fan-friendly viewing schedule.
But it hasn’t brought labour demand and supply into equilibrium or solved the disparity issue to create the sort of competition-wide, meaningful rivalries that will re-engage fans.
The fundamental problem of a lack of competitive teams still exists, and unless or until Super Rugby Pacific can begin each season with at least 80 per cent of its participants viewed as potential champions, it will be stuck in this continual cycle where it can’t grow its audience and win new investment.
The existing broadcast deal expires in 2025, and that will make it tempting for administrators to look at ways in which they can keep the Rebels alive to avoid muddling through next year with 11 teams – an ugly concept given the complications this presents with the draw – and facing a reduced payment from their rights holders.
Separately, they are already looking at how they can revamp the competition in 2026 as part of their negotiations over the next media rights deal, and again the natural inclination will be to try to hatch a plan to sell broadcasters a 12-team competition – be it with a revived and restructured Rebels or a new entrant.
But even if some slightly deranged billionaire turns up offering to buy the Rebels, it would be a giant mistake for Super Rugby to persevere with a team in Melbourne when the city has made it patently clear it doesn’t love rugby and the competition has such endemic issues linked to its lack of competitiveness.
However sobering, deflating and ego-bruising it may be, rugby administrators need to accept the game is going through a period of retrenchment – clubs have gone bust in England and USA – and it needs to descale its ambitions, lower its costs and buy into the idea that less is more.
For Super Rugby, that means not only terminating the Rebels, but having to axe one more team ahead of the 2026 season.
Downsizing is the right path – the only path, and the demise of the Rebels is a short-term threat but a long-term opportunity.
Last year there was a huge upswing in broadcast numbers in New Zealand when New Zealand teams played each other, which illustrates fans will tune in when they are confident they will see both drama and spectacle.
Super Rugby works when fans can’t predict the outcome and when they can buy into a genuine and historic rivalry, and at the moment, it’s only Kiwi derbies that produce the right, fertile conditions for fan interest to grow.
Cut the Rebels and ditch one more team, and in time, every Super Rugby game will have tension, meaning and credibility.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.
