Given the quality of rugby they have played since February, the prevailing view is that a New Zealand team will win Super Rugby. That's strengthened by the fact three of the four teams left are from New Zealand and if the Hurricanes win on Saturday night, the final will be in Wellington.
But the Lions aren't facing hopeless odds. They are a fair to middling chance to win their maiden title. They certainly shouldn't be dismissed as they have the players, the game and the experience to win. And with a bit of luck, they could even have the draw on their side.
The gamble coach Johan Ackermann took in not sending his top side to Buenos Aires for the final conference game is starting to look wiser than anyone realised.
Ackermann gambled that his fresh troops would be too good for whatever Kiwi team had to trek to Africa for the quarter-final.
He was right. He also gambled that if a New Zealand team finished with the number one seeding, they would end up facing a Kiwi team in the semifinal.