2018 hasn't quite happened for Beauden Barrett yet. Photo / Photosport
The statistics say the Crusaders will win. History says the Crusaders will win. Recent form says the Crusaders will win. The presence of so many All Blacks in their pack, says the Crusaders will win.
The probable inclement weather in Christchurch combined with home advantage says the Crusaders will win.
This list go on for a while yet, but we all surely get the point that the Crusaders are strong favourites to beat the Hurricanes in Saturday's semifinal.
Favourites to the point where a few die-hard Wellingtonians aside, no one can imagine the Hurricanes winning.
But perhaps everyone is forgetting a few salient points about the Hurricanes, the most obvious being the bloke who wears their No 10 jersey.
2018 hasn't quite happened for Beauden Barrett yet. The world's best player hasn't looked like the world's best player for much, or indeed, any of this year.
When he played against the Chiefs in Hamilton two weeks ago, he didn't look remotely like the world's best player and may have had the worst Super Rugby game of his career.
He didn't quite bounce back last week in the quarter-final but he was less inaccurate if still strangely reticent to take control. He looked like he was holding something back, deliberately trying to operate on the margins.
Whether that was a lack of confidence or deliberate ploy may well be answered on Saturday and the suspicion would be, it was a deliberate ploy and that we will see a more forceful, more engaged Barrett in Christchurch.
There's no specific reason for believing this will be the case other than when it comes to world class players, you have to assume at some stage they will spark into life and typically that's more likely to happen on the big occasion.
If a bleak winter's night in Christchurch playing against a confident and rampant Crusaders side seems an unlikely pace for an ultra-creative running five-eighth to find himself, think back to 2016 as that is precisely what happened.
The Hurricanes came to Christchurch for the final round-robin game lying fifth on the table to the Crusaders' third and needed to defy all the odds and win with a bonus point to change their playoff fate.
No one fancied they could do it and yet Barrett waved his magic wand, was unpredictably brilliant and the Hurricanes won 35-10.
It was the Barrett show from there on in and his ability to control the next three games with his boot and decision-making, before blowing them open with his running, were of such quality that his rival for the All Blacks No 10 jersey, Aaron Cruden, watched on knowing his next career move would be to head to France.
The Hurricanes are two different teams. They are so-so when Barrett isn't quite on his game, and almost unstoppable when he is.
What happens when Barrett is exuding confidence and running from everywhere is that it fires the imagination of those around him.
If he gets into a rhythm and the game becomes more about the unstructured than the structured, then watch how TJ Perenara will suddenly make a miracle play; or how Nehe Milner-Skudder will come to life.
Jordie Barrett, too, has been a little quiet in recent weeks and it probably won't take much more than seeing his brother running into a few holes, to bring him back to the boil.
And this is the thing with the Hurricanes, there really is a switch that goes on and off and they are so loaded with extraordinary players with extraordinary skills, that they can have realistic expectations, albeit they will most likely not be shared by many, that they can blow the Crusaders off the park as they have previously managed.
That switch also appears to work on their defence. Last weekend against the Chiefs, they stepped that up too, seemingly aware that playoff rugby requires the most relentless, organised and disciplined defence.
That they were able to raise their intensity and accuracy is a good indicator they have the right psychological strength to put the form slump they suffered in the last round robin games behind them and head to Christchurch genuinely convinced they can win.