It's a question on the lips of curious New Zealand rugby fans - and no doubt a fair few from New South Wales as well.
Here we are at the climax of this, the last Super 12 tournament and why, oh why, haven't the wheels fallen off the Waratahs yet?
How is it they have finally shown the steely composure and self-belief to complement their star-studded playing roster - a combination that has propelled them to the final against the Crusaders.
This has been a season of firsts for the Waratahs ... first win in Canberra, first win over Queensland, a first final.
Yet until their hard-fought semifinal victory over the Bulls last weekend, the doubters were poised to declare, "We told you so".
You could hardly fault the pessimists. After all, they have gritted their teeth through season after season that started full of hope only to end in humiliation.
The Waratahs' "lowlights" reel has some classic clangers.
Remember the Stormers in 2003? The Waratahs led by 20 points after as many minutes only to fall to bits at Aussie Stadium and lose 29-39.
A few weeks later, with four tries needed for a bonus point and possible semifinals berth, prop Matt Dunning has a "brain explosion" and lands a dropped goal instead.
Fast forward to the Highlanders last year. Again at Aussie Stadium, the home side lead handily but the Highlanders - minus Filipo Levi - sneak ahead 29-28 before Matt Burke's penalty from in front hits an upright.
Rewind, if you must, to the small matter of that famous 19-96 loss at Christchurch in 2002.
Centre Morgan Turinui has been party to some of those Waratahs' wakes and tries to quantify why this year's campaign has all but gone full term.
" It just seems this year there's more composure and confidence. It's an intangible thing - a sense or an aura that surrounds a team.
"We had a really honest look at ourselves in the off-season, we don't hide away from the fact that our history isn't very pretty.
"We needed to figure out why those teams fell away. It used to be in March the Waratahs are on top, in May you don't see them."
Coach Ewen McKenzie made what could prove to be a tactical masterstroke by bringing a leadership expert on board during the pre-season.
Ray McLean, who spent five years in the Royal Australian Air Force as a training and leadership officer, has worked with several Australian sporting teams, including National Rugby League outfit St George Illawarra.
McLean instituted a confronting honesty session, where a player leaves the room and his team-mates write down three things he should keep doing and three things he should change.
"It's about the players being more accountable for what goes wrong, but also for what goes right," McKenzie said.
"It's about putting individual responsibility back on to the players."
The peer evaluation system took some getting used to, say players like prop Al Baxter, who was initially sceptical.
"It was actually a bit of a shock at the start of the season when they brought it in.
"I was a bit fearful, as were a few other guys, that it could become pretty vindictive.
"But it was handled really well. Ray McLean set up some strong parameters and told us that it can turn pretty nasty if you don't stay within those parameters.
"After a few weeks and some benefit was gained, everyone agreed there was some good stuff coming out of it.
"It has definitely helped. It means you can't really hide from things that happened on the weekend or during the week."
Turinui said the honesty system had also enhanced the leadership qualities of a core of senior players, led by captain and halfback Chris Whitaker.
"The way they've run things and the faith the other guys have in them has been crucial.
"Whitaker is an outstanding leader and he's had great support from Phil Waugh, Justin Harrison, Nathan Grey ... we've got a wealth of experience and we didn't use it very well over the past couple of years."
Turinui confessed the Waratahs used to look sideways at each other if they felt the tide of a game was turning against them. Not any more.
"When we've been under pressure, when there's been flat spots in games, that's when the Waratahs would usually wilt away and leak a couple of tries, but [this year] the big players have stood up and dragged the younger guys with them.
"There have been times when you could see it [a meltdown] possibly happening.
"The first time we played the Bulls we got off to a good start but they got back into it with a charge down [try].
"In the past behind the posts there'd be a little bit of panic. There'd be a sense of foreboding, or thinking, 'Here we go again'.
"Now there's never any panic behind the posts. There's always composure and the concentration on the next thing we have to do.
"The ability to recognise and win big moments in matches is the difference this year.
"Our best performance was the Highlanders, but the game against the Stormers [won 25-10 on March 19], in terms of ethos and a sign of how far we've come, was good."
- NZPA
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