Lee Stensness: Champs require a top 10

The Hurricanes are assured of a semifinal spot but can they go further? Despite Friday night's unconvincing display against the Reds, there have been significant improvements in their game, particularly in the tight five.

Jason Eaton has been the main factor in that improvement. His height almost guarantees lineout ball and, if the opposition concentrates defensive efforts on him, it opens other options.

This, coupled with his work rate, means the tight five's effectiveness and competitiveness has increased.

At scrum time, Neemia Tialata's development continues and the front row is solid. They hold their own without really dominating and that probably sums up the tight five as a whole, Eaton excepted.

This leaves a question mark about the Hurricanes' finals chances. Parity may be enough, given the strength of their forward pack is undoubtedly the loose forwards. Rodney So'oialo, Jerry Collins and Chris Masoe can be intimidating as well as creative and destructive if not continually on the back foot.

However, their weakness is speed to the breakdown. Brumby George Smith gave them a lesson, while Marty Holah also shone against them. That lack of a loose ball scavenger could prove crucial with possible finals opponents the Crusaders, Waratahs and Brumbies all having test quality in that department.

While the forward pack is more consistent, the backline is able to conjure up moments of quality befitting their potential - or they can produce not much at all, as happened against the Brumbies and Reds.

The spark they are lacking is at first-five. Past winners of the Super 12 all had world-class first fives and that is not mere coincidence. For the Hurricanes, David Holwell is steady, dependable and will give everything to the cause but even his most ardent supporters could not argue he is world class, while Jimmy Gopperth is inexperienced, erratic and out of form.

It may be unfair to hinge a team's chances on one player or position but can the Brumbies win it without Larkham? Mat Rogers makes the world of difference to the Waratahs and, for the Crusaders, Daniel Carter has exceptional ability and without him, even they would struggle. The true contenders for the title have international quality at number 10.

I believe 2006 will not be the Hurricanes' year - but with another season or two of development (especially the tight five), they could be the real deal.

But international quality at first-five will always be pivotal to their chances, as it is for any Super 14 team.