Gregor Paul: He who dares wins

In the last couple of years the Southern Hemisphere has focused on the 12 while the Northern Hemisphere has been more worried about the Super.

The Poms have prattled on for almost a decade now about the Super 12 being pyjama rugby and guilty of encouraging traits that are not conducive to producing successful test match sides.

When they were world champions, they almost had a point.

But look at them now. Their dedication to set-piece rugby has come at a cost. Their backs know how to throw a party but not an accurate spin pass. They have all the qualities of a bunch of headless chickens, except one precious element - speed.

And to think, so many supposedly knowledgeable rugby people in New Zealand called for the adoption of all things English after the World Cup.

Thankfully, All Black coach Graham Henry was smart enough to see that test rugby these days is not just about scrums and lineouts. Possession is misleading.

Teams such as Scotland and Italy often hold the ball for more than half the game and still lose regularly by 30 points.

It's what you do with possession that counts.

Henry and his coaching team have been telling the five New Zealand franchises these last couple of weeks that victory belongs to the teams who are brave enough to be innovative, encourage individual flair and take some risks.

Super 12, somewhat ludicrously, has been hammered for promoting these very qualities.

Admittedly some of the rough and tumble can be more slap and tickle but the powder-puff nature of the forward exchanges is greatly exaggerated.

Once again it's impossible to look past the Blues, even though last year they were more disappointing than a day out in Gore.

They have explosive athletes across the board. Players who can blow the game open on meagre rations. Admiration is deserved when a side can touch the ball six times and score six tries.

The return to full fitness of halfback Steve Devine is crucial. His speed of pass and understanding with Xavier Rush at the base will provide an authoritative calm that was so obviously missing last year.

Expect, too, to see Luke McAlister take some of the creative load off Carlos Spencer's shoulders and provide some flair in the less crowded channels.

However, it's the presence of former Brumbies coach David Nucifora that provides the most cause for optimism.

He immediately identified the need to support the playmakers by adding some more structure. The big donkeys will be kept out of the backline while the outside backs will be encouraged to provide more options.

The Crusaders probably need to go the opposite way and put the emphasis on spontaneity without losing that collective spirit and innate understanding of the gameplan which makes them the force they are.

The signing of Rico Gear gives them some much needed finishing power and with Richie McCaw they can put width on the game without fear of being isolated. Dan Carter and Aaron Mauger are a midfield pairing in possession of everything you need to win this title while the return of Leon MacDonald gives them ability at fullback rather than Ben Blair's less enticing offer of liability.

The Chiefs have passion, a gutsy forward pack and Sitiveni Sivivatu, the best finisher in the business. They also have an alarming injury list and may no longer carry that element of surprise.

The Hurricanes could take on the role of overachiever. Like the Blues they are inundated with individual talent. Ma'a Nonu, Tana Umaga, Conrad Smith and Hosea Gear are the equal of anything in the competition.

Even in Super 12, though, you need a front five who can say boo to a goose.

The Highlanders have that and Nick Evans but precious little else.

Of the overseas contenders, only the Brumbies can match the skill levels of the best Kiwi sides.

They are organised, clinical and almost unbeatable at home. At least they were when Nucifora was at the helm and Joe Roff was influencing so much from the back.

The Reds and Waratahs are expert at turning mountains of promise into molehills. It's a skill they have shown little desire to stop practising.

The South Africans enjoyed something of a renaissance last season.

Or perhaps more accurately they lifted their level from awful to mediocre.

Maybe the Stormers can reach those dizzy heights once more. However, even if they do, making the semifinals is probably the best they can hope for.

As Andy Robinson's England are gradually realising to their cost, you cannot hide behind your forwards forever.

New Zealand teams have been the pioneers in the brave new world of Super 12.

Their reward will be yet another Super 12 title and most probably the scalp of the Lions.