Dylan Cleaver: Shape of things to come among Super 15 contenders

Richie McCaw. Photo / Alan Gibson

Halfway through the Super 15 and a clean and tidy good-bad split has emerged.

So much so that even taking into account the ebb and flow of form over a long season, it's possible to start drawing some strong conclusions about who will be involved in the post-season and who is going on holiday.

Take out a red pen and draw a line through the Lions, Cheetahs, Force, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Rebels and Brumbies. Unless they can call on hitherto unseen reserves of brilliance they are as good as cooked.

Then put a big question mark beside the Bulls. They would need a massive upswing in fortunes to thrust themselves into contention, but they at least have favourable draws and pedigree in this competition.

That leaves you with seven no-hopers, one team on the cusp of being counted out and seven contenders.

That is unlikely to provide a dynamic start to the reconfigured, American-style conference era that Sanzar bosses would have been hoping for, with intrigue and jockeying for playoff positions continuing up to the final whistle of the 18th round.

As it stands, the teams we thought would be good largely have been. Ditto for the teams you suspected would be bad. If you swapped the Highlanders and Hurricanes on the table, and to a lesser extent the Bulls and the Sharks, it's as most pundits would have predicted.

NEW ZEALAND CONFERENCE

If the season was to end tomorrow, New Zealand would have three representatives in the playoffs. That's a surprise given that the "derby system" combined with the more even spread of talent was meant to most adversely affect this conference.

The Crusaders, Blues and surprising Highlanders have put daylight between themselves and the stragglers, the Hurricanes and Chiefs.

There's a suspicion, however, that the Highlanders are only one or two more injuries away from sinking back into the pack. It's likely you will need upwards of 55 points to make the playoffs.

The Crusaders and Blues should cruise this, but the Highlanders might find themselves a win short.

Likely finish: Crusaders (P), Blues (P), Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs.

AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE

The full-bodied Reds have a two-game buffer over the Waratahs and a closer look at their respective draws would suggest that the Reds will continue to run away with this conference, especially if they win the interstate clash this weekend.

The Waratahs are out of the playoff spots as of now, but expect them to claw their way back in and hold off the Bulls and Highlanders for that final position.

Forget about the Rebels and the Force, even if the former have been surprisingly competitive at times.

Likely finish: Reds (P), Waratahs (P), Brumbies, Rebels, Force.

SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE

Defending champion the Bulls have the draw to launch a second-half-of-the-season assault, but have probably left themselves too much work to do. Even captain Victor Matfield seemed resigned after his side's spirited loss to the Reds.

With two dreadful teams in the Cheetahs and Lions, that leaves the Sharks and Stormers to wave the South African flag. Neither side has fully convinced, even if the Stormers' win-loss record is exceptional.

Likely finish: Sharks (P), Stormers (P), Bulls, Cheetahs, Lions.