Dylan Cleaver: History nears for McCaw's troops

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Listing the reasons the Reds will win tonight is not easy.

It's not to say they won't - rugby uses a funny-shaped ball and all that - it's just difficult to find a logical reason.

When logic deserts, you're left with a bunch of intangibles, none of which the Reds has any control over - luck, poor refereeing, Dan Carter having an off day with the boot, a couple of critical Crusader errors. Even the vaunted home-ground advantage means little in this game. Sure, the Crusaders would rather be playing this at AMI Stadium, but they've shown they are completely at ease playing in foreign conditions.

Which is not to be dismissive about the Reds. Their revival under Ewen McKenzie has been one of the stories of the year.

The way they have prevailed in plenty of close games, including against the Crusaders in round 12, shows that they have another one of those intangibles, ticker, in spades. The way Will Genia and Quade Cooper have mesmerised defences has been brilliant to watch. They're not as good as the Crusaders though.

Put on your selector's hat and pick a combined 1st XV from the two sides that will start the final.

If our thinking is similar, it will look something like this: Tom Marshall, Sean Maitland, Robbie Fruean, Sonny Bill Williams, Digby Ioane, Dan Carter, Will Genia, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Scott Higginbotham, James Horwill, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Saia Faingaa, Wyatt Crockett.

Even then you'd say the Whitelocks, Zac Guildford, Andy Ellis and Corey Flynn would be unlucky to miss out, while perhaps only Quade Cooper and Rod Davies' omissions would raise eyebrows on the other side. It's not just the cattle where the Crusaders have a serious edge.

Their scrum is seriously good and if referee Bryce Lawrence gets the engagement right they could do some damage to the Reds.

In Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read, they have two athletic lineout forwards the equal to anything the Reds have.

The home side might throw more numbers into the breakdown, but if the Crusaders can control their ball it just gives them more scope to set up one-on-ones with their brutal midfield duo of Sonny Bill Williams and Robbie Fruean.

History is so close for the Crusaders they will feel they can reach out and grab it.

History beckons for the Reds, too, who have never won a Super rugby title in the professional era. You just get the feeling they have to reach a little further to grab theirs.