Crusaders’ slim chances of winning Super Rugby not the fairy tale it would seem - Gregor Paul

Levi Aumua of the Crusaders and David Havili of the Crusaders celebrate Johnny McNicholl against the Rebels. Photosport

OPINION

There’s a chance, albeit slim, that the Crusaders do what looked unthinkable even two weeks ago and rise from the dead to claim an eighth successive Super Rugby title.

They may have only won twice this year, but with five games to go, they sit just three points outside a playoff spot, and with a handful of previously injured All Blacks and other key players set to return, the prospect of a late surge down the home straight is a distinct possibility.

There is no doubt both the Hurricanes and Blues, who have each only lost one game so far, are distinctly nervous that they could take top spot in the round-robin and find themselves facing a rejuvenated Crusaders in the quarter-finals.

This is, it could be said, the magic of sport - the sort of storyline that Super Rugby Pacific desperately needs to spark the imagination.

The defending champions have had a horror season, descending into a shambolic state on their two-week trip to Australia which saw them lose to the Waratahs and Force in successive weekends and spark questions about whether they made the right decision in appointing Rob Penney as coach.

And in six weeks, they could potentially topple one of the two sides who have been consistently excellent and storm into the last four with the whole dynamic of the competition altered.

These are the sorts of fairytales sport delivers and why it’s addictively captivating.

But the Crusaders winning in 2024 would not be the fairy tale it seems.

Far from illustrating their depth of resilience and defiance, it would highlight that Super Rugby Pacific has a playoff system that rewards mediocrity and endangers the credibility of the competition.

Super Rugby takes 14 weeks to shake out just four of the 12 teams. All that rugby and only four teams don’t make the cut, and with a straight one-plays-eight playoff format, there is no significant reward for the team that endures those 14 weeks the most effectively to finish top of the ladder.

Christian Lio-Willie celebrates his try against the Rebels. Photo / Photosport

If the Crusaders are good enough to win three playoff games the story stacks as remarkable, but to believe that, is to ignore the fact that they should never have been in the playoffs in the first place.

By allowing two-thirds of the teams to progress, the system sets the pass mark at just 33 per cent – and not even New Zealand’s failing education system is willing to drop the bar that low.

The Blues or Hurricanes could win 13 of their 14 regular season games and find themselves playing a team in the quarterfinals that only won four.

It is a patently dysfunctional format that enables a club with a 28 per cent win ratio to make the playoffs.

The system does at least give the team that won 93 per cent of its games home advantage, but it’s a bit like letting the pupil who scraped a pass mark in media studies stand on the stage with the Dux and have the parents clap them both as if they achieved on the same level.

This system has been in place since 2022, but its lack of credibility is only likely going to be fully exposed this year because of the possibility of the Crusaders mounting a late season revival which could see them win just seven of 17 games and yet be crowned champions.

The Crusaders have been directionless and rudderless for much of the year – almost clueless at times – but there is enough individual talent when everyone is fit for them to be a handful regardless of what sort of input they are receiving from the coaching team.

For the Blues, Hurricanes and Chiefs, who, along with the Brumbies, have set the standard this year, it would be a bitter pill to swallow if the Crusaders are able to once again walk off with the silverware.

The Crusaders won in 2017 with a 94 per cent win ratio. In 2018 and 2019 it was 89 per cent; 83 per cent in 2022 when Super Rugby returned and 77 per cent last year.

But the Crusaders could win this year with a 41 per cent ratio and it would be a tough sell to see them as genuine and deserving champions no matter the heroics required to win three playoff games.

If the playoffs format was amended - as it almost certainly will be next year with the competition destined to only have 11 teams due to the collapse of the Rebels - to only allow the top six to progress, the performance gap between the best and worst qualifier would be greatly reduced.

The Reds currently sit sixth with four wins, but looking at their schedule, they would be confident of finishing with a positive win ratio.

Having a tighter system that would mostly require teams to win more games than they lose to reach the playoffs, would instantly drive up the credibility factor.

So too would a six-team playoff format allowing the two clubs who finish one and two on the ladder to go straight into the semifinals and earn a more substantial reward for their endeavour.

Super Rugby should be a triumph for excellence, not a means for mediocrity to be celebrated.