Crusaders carry Kiwi hopes into playoffs

Owen Franks (right) of the Crusaders smashes at Wycliff Palu of the Waratahs during a Super 14 match in Christchurch last month. Photo / Getty Images

Aside from the hardy annuals, the Crusaders, who had to gatecrash the semifinals after a near-terminal, three-game slump through weeks 11 to 13, the locals have ranged between underachieving (Blues and Hurricanes) to ignominious and embarrassing (Chiefs and Highlanders).

Instead, the South African and Australian sides impressed most. The Waratahs quietly compiled an excellent season, while the Brumbies were in with a chance on the final weekend of round robin. The Reds, though fading late, were the biggest improvers and look to have the basis of a side that will challenge for the foreseeable future.

South Africa's talent is stacked in three sides - the Bulls, the Stormers and the Sharks. Two of those teams feature this weekend while the Sharks came home with a rails run, but their horror start left them too much to do.

You could look at the playoffs, note that New Zealand has as much representation as Australia and argue there is nothing to panic about, but look behind that facade and you will find that teams from these shores were the worst offenders in any number of fundamental areas - penalty concession, lost lineout ball and, crucially, goalkicking.

Rugby analyst Peter Thorburn believes the goalkicking woes can be put down in part to skills coach Mick Byrne no longer being a full-time New Zealand Rugby Union employee.

"He would go around the franchises and the provinces keeping an eye on things, but no longer does that," Thorburn said. "Some of it gets sent to him on video, but it's not the same as he being by the kicker's side, working through his mechanics."

As for the penalties, Thorburn said New Zealand sides had adapted slowest to the changing laws and interpretations in recent seasons.

"It's not that New Zealand teams aren't smart, but we haven't been as innovative as the other teams."

It has added up to a scenario where, for just the third time in Super rugby history (2001 and 2007 also), no semifinal or final will be on New Zealand soil.

But there's still the Crusaders ... as there ever was.

Semifinal 1 - Bulls v Crusaders:

BULLS

15 Zane Kirchner
14 Jaco van der Westhuyzen
13 Jaco Pretorius
12 Wynand Olivier
11 Francois Hougaard
10 Morne Steyn
9 Fourie du Preez
8 Pierre Spies
7 Dewald Potgieter
6 Deon Stegmann
5 Victor Matfield (c)
4 Danie Rossouw
3 Werner Kruger
2 Gary Botha
1 Gurthro Steenkamp

Reserves: Bandise Maku, Bees Roux, Flip van der Merwe, Derick Kuun, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Stephan Dippenaar, Pedrie Wannenburg.Seeded:1st

Record:10-3
Competition Points:47
Points differential:+91
Tries scored:47
Tries conceded:32
Kick stats:76/100 (76 per cent)

KEY MAN: First five-eighth Morne Steyn. He is two points shy of Dan Carter's Super rugby points-scoring record (221) and not even the wildest Crusader optimist believes that mark will remain.

He might not be the flashiest player, but the Bulls rarely get the credit they deserve for their try-scoring exploits. If the Bulls are two points down late in the game, you don't want them with the ball in your half. Whether it be off the kicking tee or out of hand, Steyn is lethal.

WHAT SPINS THEIR WHEELS: Steyn, by virtue of wearing the kicking boots, might be the key man, but it is the brilliant Fourie du Preez that drives the engine.

"He is a super player," Peter Thorburn said. "He's combative, kicks brilliantly and takes the right options time after time."

Justin Collins believes they are not far from the complete article.

"I played them in Pretoria with the Blues last year and we just couldn't dent them." They lost 26-59. "They were so solid across the board."

HOW THE WHEELS COME OFF: They have lost Gerhard van den Heever and Bakkies Botha to suspension, but they have the depth to compensate. A more tangible weakness might be the defensive frailties of "some of their highly touted players", according to Thorburn.

"'Pierre Spies is big but he misses tackles, so does Morne Steyn. They have a physical midfield [Wynand Olivier and Jaco Pretorius] but their defensive configuration is not always good."

VERDICT: "I didn't like them resting all their players for the match against the Stormers," Collins said. "It comes across as complacent and the last thing you want to show a side like the Crusaders is complacency."

CRUSADERS

15 Colin Slade
14 Sean Maitland
13 Robert Fruean
12 Daniel Bowden
11 Zac Guildford
10 Dan Carter
9 Andy Ellis
8 Kieran Read
7 Richie McCaw (c)
6 George Whitelock
5 Sam Whitelock
4 Brad Thorn
3 Owen Franks
2 Ti'i Paulo
1 Ben Franks

Reserves: Daniel Perrin, Wyatt Crockett, Chris Jack, Thomas Waldrom, Kahn Fotuali'i, Tim Bateman, Jared Payne.

Seeded:4th
Record:8-4-1
Competition Points:41
Points differential:+93
Tries scored:43
Tries conceded:24
Kick stats:65/92 (70.6 per cent)

KEY MAN: Tighthead prop Owen Franks. "He's become a beast at scrum time," says Thorburn. "If you look at his back, it's like Carl Hayman's was." It helps that Franks has the rather large Brad Thorn behind him, but so long as the loosehead side of the scrum does not suffer under Stuart Dickinson's often-barmy interpretations, the Crusaders should have a great platform from which to work.

What spins their wheels: Playing in late May is what gets them excited. This is their 12th trip to the post-season, which is more than the other three semifinalists combined.

"They have great teamwork at this time of year," Thorburn says. "They defend well and demonstrate great physicality in their tackling."

Justin Collins, who played his final game of Super rugby last season, said the fact the Crusaders had to fight in the last week just to make the playoffs would hold them in good stead.

"They had to work bloody hard. They're fighters who won't lie down," he said.

HOW THE WHEELS COME OFF: "Their lineout is a bit erratic, there's no doubt about that," said Thorburn, aware they face one of the world's best lineouts.

Collins agrees: "It's probably not as solid as it could be, but then again I haven't seen too many New Zealand lineouts you could bet the house on. It's not a strength at the moment."

VERDICT: Collins believes that the Bulls' home advantage is still intact, even if the game has been shifted to Soweto, where support for the Crusaders is likely to be more pronounced. Nevertheless, he is picking a rare semifinal away win. "I think they'll beat them over there," declares Collins, the Super rugby centurion. "I can sense some complacency in the Bulls."

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Semifinal 2 - Stormers v Waratahs

STORMERS

15 Joe Pietersen
14 Gio Aplon
13 Jaque Fourie
12 Juan de Jongh
11 Bryan Habana
10 Peter Grant
9 Dewaldt Duvenage
8 Duane Vermeulen
7 Francois Louw
6 Schalk Burger (c)
5 Andries Bekker
4 Adriaan Fondse
3 Brok Harris
2 Tiaan Liebenberg
1 Wicus Blaauw

Reserves: Deon Fourie, Eusebio Guinazu, Anton Van Zyl, Pieter Louw, Ricky Januarie, Willem De Waal, Tim Whitehead.

Seeded:2nd
Record:9-4
Competition Points:44
Points differential:+194
Tries scored:36
Tries conceded:17
Kick stats:71/91 (78 per cent)

KEY MAN: It's hardly pushing the boat out to suggest that Schalk Burger is the key figure, given his Springbok pedigree and sustained excellence over the past five years. His ability to mix the loose with the tight, to spoil and, less often, create, allows the likes of Andries Bekker and Tiaan Liebenberg to roam free.

WHAT SPINS THEIR WHEELS: "They're very mean when it comes to conceding tries," Thorburn said, suggesting that defence is the foundation stone of this side.

"Their defensive patterns are extremely good."

But that does not mean they are are a grinding outfit, with Collins pointing out they have scored some of the most outstanding tries of the competition, most notably against the Blues at Eden Park.

Thorburn loves the way the Stormers do the little things right. "They kick-off well, they chase well and they receive kick-offs well. They're a very well drilled team."

Like the Australian teams, the Saffas don't mind giving a bit of gyp if it serves a purpose.

"We have got the mental edge on them after beating them earlier in the season," first-five Peter Grant said of the Stormers' 27-6 victory over the Tahs in week two.

HOW THE WHEELS COME OFF: Thorburn had to think long and hard before identifying Bryan Habana's penchant for leaving the line in search of intercepts as a possible weakness, especially if that enables Turner to get around the outside of him.

Juan de Jongh, though undoubtedly talented, is not that big at 85kg, and 103kg centre Tom Carter might get some value running down his channel.

Collins, when asked to identify the Stormers' weaknesses, simply said there were none. Fair enough, but here's the thing: the team that most experts acknowledge as the best in the Super 14 this year, somehow managed to lose four games, including to the Brumbies at home.

VERDICT: If you have not worked it out, the Stormers are the hottest of hot favourites. Not quite a banker, but close.

WARATAHS

15 Zane Kirchner
14 Kurtley Beale
13 Lachie Turner
12 Rob Horne
11 Tom Carter
10 Drew Mitchell
9 Berrick Barnes
8 Luke Burgess
7 Ben Mowen
6 Phil Waugh (c)
5 Patrick McCutcheon
4 Kane Douglas
3 Dean Mumm
2 Al Baxter
1 Tatafu Polota-Nau
1 Dan Palmer

Reserves: Damien Fitzpatrick, Jeremy Tilse, Chris Thomson, Dave Dennis, Josh Holmes, Daniel Halangahu, Rory Sidey.

Seeded: 3rd
Record:9-4
Competition Points:43
Points differential:+97
Tries scored:45
Tries conceded:31
Kick stats:62/80 (77.5 per cent)

KEY MAN: No8 Ben Mowen made a name for himself last season but this year he has made giant strides. He's the guy they look to to get go-forward, to break the advantage line. Strong and extremely mobile, Mowen also benefits from having Phil Waugh tracking his every move.

WHAT SPINS THEIR WHEELS: The Waratahs are extremely patient. "They just do the basics really well and pray on other teams' mistakes," Collins said. "That's how they beat teams, by capitalising on mistakes."

Thorburn likes the make-up of their backs, with Berrick Barnes pulling the strings at either first or second receiver.

"The back three of Lachie turner, Drew Mitchell and Kurtley Beale has some flair, too," Thorburn said.

The Australians are not averse to a bit of psychological warfare, though any team that doesn't see through it by now must have come down in the last rain shower. "The Stormers are a side that haven't been in finals too often," said Berrick Barnes, the talented playmaker about to play his first semifinal. "They have a lot of pressure riding on them. They have 52,000 [fans at the ground] and a whole town riding on them, too. We are here as underdogs."

HOW THE WHEELS COME OFF: The scrum. No team is asked to reset more than the Waratahs.

"The Stormers could take it to the cleaners," predicted Thorburn. "Though if there is any team that are used to playing, and adjust well, with a scrum that is struggling, it is the Waratahs."

According to Collins, the Waratahs will not have the attacking thrust to beat the Stormers. While the back three have been impressive, they will not get that sort of latitude at Cape Town.

VERDICT: "The only way the Waratahs will win this game is if the Stormers beat themselves," said Collins.