They must beat Sharks to retain hopes of making final four
If the similarities play out tomorrow the Blues will be multiple winners.
They are in Durban where they must beat the Sharks to retain their outside hopes of making the final four, in a scenario which has many parallels to the predicament they faced in the opening season of Super rugby.
In 1996, Blues captain Zinzan Brooke and defeated Sharks coach Ian McIntosh concurred that the Blues won the inaugural title when they outlasted the Sharks a fortnight before the final. If they had lost that day, the Blues would have faced another week in South Africa and a semifinal at altitude against the Bulls in what Brooke agreed would have been a task too great.
Instead they eked out a narrow win against the multi-decorated Sharks and went home to eventually claim the first competition honours.
Tomorrow's sides are not the same calibre as those teams who met 15 years ago, but they are well-matched.
The Sharks have regrouped after a shocking start while the Blues are unsure whether they can crack their loss-win-loss routine.
If they back up with another victory then they will feel they can make the final four with games against the less-fancied Cheetahs and Lions before heading home to a last-round match with the Chiefs.
Even if the Blues win tomorrow it will hardly ease fears about their fate against lesser-fancied foes. Their motley results chart this season remains an ugly reminder of their form.
The Blues have brought in loose forwards Peter Saili and Serge Lilo, but kept the rest of their starting combination which shut the Force out last weekend despite a rusty start and a sloppy end.
Similar troubles tomorrow should be far more costly, even against a Sharks side which has barely fired this year. Coach John Plumtree has struggled to find the right elixir to consistently fire up the South African side.
They have produced alternate patches of strong rugby and elementary mistakes. Consequently they sit below the Blues on the points table, but they are at home and they have won three close matches on the trot in results which were going the other way earlier in the season.
The Blues will be anxious, they will want to play more of the free-wheeling style they favour, but this will be a game where they will need to be more circumspect.
They have to win all three games in South Africa, they need to look after their players rather than burn them out in this opening match. They will come in for some clumping confrontation from the opposition forwards in the next three matches and coach Lam will need to vary his selections and tactics to get through those.
The Chiefs have been the only Australasian side to leave South Africa undefeated this season, but they only played two games for a one-point win against the Sharks and a bizarre 72-65 victory against the Lions.
A one-point win would suit the Blues fine. If Lam's men ever wanted to emulate their neighbours, tomorrow would be a good time to begin.
