19 reasons why the Hurricanes won't beat the Crusaders

Pete Samu of the Crusaders runs in to score against the Sharks. Photosport

Beating the Crusaders at home is hard enough, but beating them in a home playoff game has proven to be impossible.

The defending champions hold a distinct home advantage going into Saturday's semifinal against the Hurricanes in Christchurch.

The Crusaders have played 19 previous home playoff games dating back to 1998 and have won every time. Three of those were against the Hurricanes including the 2006 fog final.

And it hasn't even been close in recent times. Saturday's 30-point drubbing over the Sharks was the seventh straight time the Crusaders won a home playoff by 14 points or more.

In fact the closest a team has ever come to beating the Crusaders at home in a knockout game was the first time they hosted one – a 36-32 win over André Joubert's Coastal Sharks in 1998.

A glimmer of hope for the away team on Saturday? The last team to beat the Crusaders at home was the Hurricanes in their final regular season game in 2016. That would be 742 days ago by the time the game kicks off on Saturday. Another impressive win streak, this one going back 18 games.

The Crusaders showed earlier this season they can be vulnerable at home. The defending champions went down 29-0 in the opening 30 minutes to the Waratahs only to pull off a remarkable comeback to win 31-29.

The TAB lists the Crusaders as $1.37 favourites with the Hurricanes paying $2.90 to make the final.

The Crusaders are paying just $1.57 to win a ninth title and their first at home since 2008.

Despite being the underdog in Christchurch, the Hurricanes are still second favourites to win the Super Rugby title, listed at $3.50 odds to lift the trophy next weekend. To do so they would need to win on the road against the Lions or Waratahs.

Crusaders at home in 2018
Beat Chiefs 45-23
Beat Stormers 45-28
Beat Bulls 33-14
Beat Sunwolves 33-11
Beat Waratahs 31-29
Beat Hurricanes 24-13
Beat Highlanders 45-22
Beat Blues 54-17
Beat Sharks 40-10
points for 350. Against 167
Average score 39-19

Crusaders in home playoff games
1998 – won semifinal v Sharks 36-32
2000 – won semifinal v Highlanders 37-15
2002 – Won semifinal v Highlanders 34-23
2002 – Won final v Brumbies 31-13
2003 – Won semifinal v Hurricanes 39-16
2004 – Won semifinal v Stormers 27-16
2005 – Won semifinal v Hurricanes 47-7
2005 – Won final v Waratahs 35-25
2006 – Won semifinal v Bulls 35-15
2006 – Won final v Hurricanes 19-12
2008 – Won semifinal v Hurricanes 33-22
2008 – Won final v Waratahs 20-12
2011 – Won qualifier v Sharks 36-8
2012 – Won qualifier v Bulls 28-13
2013 – Won qualifier v Reds 38-9
2014 – Won semifinal v Sharks 38-6
2017 – Won qualifier v Highlanders 17-0
2017 – Won semifinal v Chiefs 27-13
2018 – Won qualifier v Sharks 40-10