The return of inspirational first five-eighths Carlos Spencer for Ponsonby's Gallaher Shield semifinal clash with Marist at Western Springs Stadium today has shortened the odds on the champions progressing to the final at Eden Park next weekend.
Spencer suffered facial injuries while playing for New Zealand Maori against the Barbarians, but he has maintained fitness with club and Auckland NPC squad training.
He played the entire second round last season and had a profound influence on the outcome of the competition, notably in Ponsonby's semifinal win over Waitemata and then in the final against Otahuhu.
In their lead-up match last weekend, Ponsonby topped the table by scoring six tries to two in beating University 39-15, whereas Marist more or less arrived in the semis through the backdoor with a 37-15 win over Eden.
But while Ponsonby coach Jack Huch was satisfied with his side's build-up, Marists' lack of accuracy and fire against Eden alarmed coaches Bernie McCahill, Darryl Suasua and Mike Casey.
The strong possibility that Justin Collins will be back from injury for Marist will boost their confidence.
Waitemata's home ground advantage over Suburbs could be the defining factor in the other semifinal.
In the first round of qualifying matches, Waitemata, in front of their home crowd, beat Suburbs 19-8, but that result was reversed 25-13 at the latter's Avondale Racecourse ground in the second round.
At Sturges Park last weekend, Waitemata were downed 17-13 by Otahuhu after conceding a penalty try and enduring a particularly tough game, whereas Suburbs enjoyed a romp in beating College Rifles 60-19.
Waitemata have had all-round strength this season, but since prop Nick White rejoined the side, their scrum has been the main platform for success.
But Suburbs' strength is also up front and this should lead to an intriguing battle between the neighbouring clubs.
NORTH HARBOUR
During the formation of the Harbour union in the 1980s the cynics decreed a one-sided competition, with the metropolitan clubs growing stronger and the rural clubs growing weaker.
That theory is cast to the four winds today when two of the bunnies of the lower divisions of Auckland days, Massey and Silverdale, tackle the big guys, Takapuna and North Shore respectively, in the semifinals of the premiership.
And it will be no surprise if either one or both bunnies survive to make the grand final next Saturday.
In their earlier encounters this season, Silverdale beat Shore 26-18 in the round robin and drew 20-all in the top-six shoot-out.
Massey, who made Harbour history by winning the 1993 title, were narrowly beaten 9-6 and 16-11 by Takapuna.
That Massey and Silverdale made the semis is a fairy story as both were confined to the Bowl (bottom four) finals last season.
As a coach maketh the team, the revival in both clubs is a credit to Charlie McAlister (Silverdale), Graham Lowe (Massey) and their staffs.
Shore, at home today at Vauxhall Rd, and Takapuna, who travel to Moire Park, have the named players and resources to plug injury gaps and should carry on to a repeat of last year's final, which was won by Shore.
Massey and Silverdale, however, apart from the brilliance of their respective five-eighths Tusi Pisi and Luke McAlister, are sides without heroes. Their success is built around a 15-man effort.
And there lies the secret of both semifinals. The Massey and Silverdale packs will win some ball. Can the Shore and Takapuna defences close down the expertise of Pisi and McAlister in reading the game and dictating terms?
COUNTIES MANUKAU
In today's major semifinal, Ardmore Marist will play Pukekohe at home, which should be a close encounter. Pukekohe have the psychological edge over their opponents, having been the only team to beat Ardmore Marist this season.
But Ardmore Marist have a strong, settled line-up, the only major change being the first start of the season for Kristian Ormsby.
For Pukekohe, the welcome return of Gus Leger from international duty with Tonga should add more composure and direction for their young backline.
Up front, Pukekohe should have a slight advantage at scrum time, with Ardmore Marist superior in general play. Both teams look to be evenly matched in the backs.
In the other semifinal, Waiuku have home-ground advantage against Onewhero. In what should be another close game, both teams look fairly evenly matched. Both have had a win against each other this season.
Onewhero have played good consistent rugby all season, but they will need a little bit extra to match a strong Waiuku team who should have good local support.
Waiuku have possibly the strongest and most aggressive forward pack in the competition and should be a handful for the visitors. Their backline has also steadily improved this season, with Duncan Bell likely to be a major influence.
If Onewhero can match Waiuku up front and make good use of the ball, they will have a good chance of victory. But if they don't, they will struggle to win.
Spencer shortens odds for Ponsonby
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