Wynne Gray: With 100 days to go, where are we at?

If the selectors are looking for a new face, they could consider Crusader Robbie Fruean. Photo / Getty Images

Where are we at, how are we travelling for the World Cup?

A flippant answer would be that the All Blacks are 100 days out from the start of the seventh global rugby tournament. No more, no less.

There is still some way to go before the All Blacks start their quest to repeat the deeds of their predecessors at the first global tournament 24 years ago.

The Super 15 has three weeks of pool play left followed by three weeks of finals footy. In coaching parlance, that is the time when the national selectors really sharpen their pencils.

As the series moves into late qualifying, local derbies and sudden-death rugby, players' skills and calibre are being marked more harshly.

Injury charts have been collated and amended, form lists have been compiled and altered, and there is still time for players to demand selection or exclusion by the All Blacks panel.

Some players may be giving those Wise Men the heebee-jeebees. It depends how much patience they have and what weighting is put on those who have done it before for them in the black jersey. A sign of that came recently when a select experienced group gathered in Christchurch to discuss the 2007 tournament and lessons they should take from it for this year's campaign.

This core group is a sounding board for the coaches, the leadership group which will deliver a concerted influence through the All Blacks. Among those attending was Andrew Hore, an experienced hooker who has been capped 50 times for the All Blacks but who has been in modest Super 15 form. For a variety of playing, operational and team reasons, Hore will make the World Cup. A few back-up players will also make the grade because of factors they bring to the side outside their
sporting skills.

As an exercise, it was curious to see how many All Blacks the same selectors used in their first season back in 2004 are still running round in New Zealand.

Mils Muliaina, Tana Umaga, Joe Rokocoko, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Luke McAlister, Daniel Carter, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Rodney So'oialo, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Chris Jack, Ali Williams, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Tony Woodcock and Corey Flynn were all picked that season by Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith.

They have since added a further 43 players to their test collection giving them more than twice the magic number needed when the World Cup cull is completed.

Some - like the ageing Umaga and the broken So'oialo - will be obvious casualties, but the bulk are pushing hard for inclusion.

Others like Israel Dagg and Isaia Toeava face uncertain waits for injuries to heal.

What chances of a new face in the World Cup squad?

Well, who exactly? Perhaps Matt Todd, Robbie Fruean, Jared Payne, Jarrad Hoeata or Dane Coles. I can't see the selectors delivering any other magic potions unless they go for a real punt like Tawera Kerr-Barlow or Lima Sopoaga. But really that's just looking for wildcards to say I told you so afterwards.

The All Black selectors are not men of radical disposition. They are conservative by nature, men who weigh their ideas carefully, then sift them again before dusting them off in public. In their eight years of All Black tutelage, left-field choices have been rare. That category would include Steven Bates, Saimone Taumoepeau, Sosene Anesi, Campbell Johnstone, Kevin Senio, Toeava, David Hill, John Schwalger, Kevin O'Neill, Bryn Evans, Tamati Ellison and Ben Smith.

Their elevation caused eyebrows to raise more than a shade at the time.

Toeava has, eventually, risen to the top, Smith looks as though he will make it and the rest have fallen away.

So who of the current All Blacks might be making life a little awkward for Henry, Hansen and Smith - whose form has dipped or stayed flat while other contenders have soared to another level?

Perhaps Cory Jane, Joe Rokocoko and Tom Donnelly are in the first category, while there will be robust debate about the quality of replacement options like Zac Guildford or Williams.

It is those sorts of checks and balances the panel will wrestle with before they announce their 14 backs and 16 forwards for Cup duty.

There will be some players with an asterisk besides their names, who might be classed as "trouble" if left without any great work in the World Cup. There will be others with reputations as team players, those of high calibre who can cope with regular selection rejection.

In a 30-strong squad where some may get a half a game and no more, that will come into the equation.

Then there will be goalkicking issues and settling on the back-up to Daniel Carter.

The choices are dwindling. Colin Slade is still recuperating from his repeat broken jaw while Stephen Donald, Aaron Cruden and Mike Delany have brought mixed performances to the table when given an opportunity.

Luke McAlister has had limited first five-eighths chances but is goalkicking strongly and has All Black history with the selectors during the 2005 Lions tour.

It may be a tick more than three months before the World Cup men are announced, but we will get a decent preview next month when the Tri Nations group is revealed.

Then the All Blacks have to negotiate four tests against the Springboks and Wallabies, stay injury-free and hold their form to make the tournament.

Then they have to... no, let's not think about that yet.

* Wynne Gray is the Herald's senior rugby writer and has covered more than 200 All Black tests live. He will be following the All Blacks at this year's global event, in what will be his sixth World Cup.