Unlucky 13 up for grabs again

Centre has been the Achilles heel of the All Blacks in the last two World Cups and if, as expected, Tana Umaga departs the scene after this morning's test against Scotland, centre will again be the centre of speculation by All Black fans and commentators.

Umaga will go down in All Black folklore as one of the great players.

He will finish at least fifth on the all-time All Black test try-scoring list, even if he doesn't score in this morning's international against Scotland, after overtaking John Kirwan on this tour.

Going into the Scotland match, Umaga had 36 tries, just behind Jonah Lomu (37). Ahead are only Doug Howlett (41), Jeff Wilson (44) and Christian Cullen (46).

But because centre has been such a problem area for All Black World Cup teams, the expected absence of Umaga will raise the ghosts of the 1999 and 2003 World Cups, whose horror semifinals coincided with controversies at centre for the All Blacks.

In 1999, coach John Hart fielded dashing fullback Christian Cullen at centre against the French because of a dearth of options after the retirement of Frank Bunce. Also in the squad were Darryl Gibson, Alama Ieremia and Pita Alatini - all talented players but better known as second five-eighths. Ironically, one of the wingers that day was a certain Tana Umaga.

Hart's selection of Cullen at centre for this campaign drew criticism from the outset - criticism which intensified when the French ran riot at Twickenham and defeated the All Blacks 43-31.

In fact, Cullen's performance at centre had little or nothing to do with the defeat, which came after the French responded in irrepressible fashion to an error-ridden All Black game. However, the defeat and the perceived deficiencies at centre became intertwined to New Zealand rugby fans who did themselves no credit with the ferocity of their criticism at the time.

Fast forward to 2003 and centre was again the centre of controversy. An injured Umaga - the debate still lasts to this day about whether he was fit enough to play - was replaced by fullback Leon MacDonald.

MacDonald did not play particularly well but, again, the fault cannot be laid at centre but rather at an All Black team who took their Australian opposition too lightly and were surprised by a vigorous Australian effort, particularly at ruck and maul, shutting down the All Black backline and producing errors.

Again, however, the selection controversy was inextricably linked with the defeat. Umaga was involved in both World Cups but, if he is not to be in the All Black midfield for 2007, then who will?

All Black coach Graham Henry has made a virtue out of building depth and experience across the team and that work is likely to stand the All Blacks in good stead.

The leading two combinations could be Luke McAlister and Conrad Smith or Aaron Mauger and Mils Muliaina. Ma'a Nonu has often been mentioned as Umaga's replacement and provides a power attacking game but may fall short in defence, ball retention and all-round game sense.

Mauger is probably the best distributor in the All Black camp, with Smith not far behind, but the similarity in their games and defence could count against them as a pairing.

McAlister, especially with Nick Evans playing well at first five-eighths on this tour and increasing the options at 10, may now get the opportunity to cement a place at second five-eighths. He has a growing physical presence and tactical awareness.

Muliaina, although little tried at centre in the All Black sphere, has pace, good defence and the ability to beat a man and offload. While he has played well at fullback, recent internationals have suggested that defences are working him out when he runs the ball from deep.

Centre may give him a new stage for his undoubted skills. With McDonald and possibly even Isaia Toe'ava coming on at fullback, this may be the post-Umaga solution.

But one thing is certain: Henry has a lot more options than those of 1999 and 2003.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY