Australia players gesture the crowd after the Rugby World Cup Pool A match between Australia and Wales at Twickenham. Photo / AP
Australia players gesture the crowd after the Rugby World Cup Pool A match between Australia and Wales at Twickenham. Photo / AP
And then there were eight. At this time is it worth going back to the original TPRs, released less than a month before the tournament started. The Top 8 then was: 1. New Zealand 2. Australia 3. Ireland 4. England 5. France 6. South Africa 7. Wales 8. Argentina.
Rankings knew there was never going to be a chance of three teams emerging from the grisly Pool of Death, but had the wherewithal to recognise that Australia, England and Wales were always going to be more of a threat than the team that finished second in pool B. That would be Scotland who, on form, should be spat out of the quarter-finals faster than a lump of wasabi mistaken for avocado.
Six was probably a bit low for the Springboks, but this is not a great South African side and a wafer-weak pool was always likely to see them progress.
England? Hmmm... got to be careful what you say here as there's a few Angles and Saxons among us who are sensitive wee souls (and who obviously will be just as sensitive when/ if the All Blacks are sent packing).
Anyway, enough reminiscing, here's the Quarter-final Power Ranking, brought to you exclusively by those great friends Guess and Prediction.
It is impossible to drop a team down the order after coming through Pool A unbeaten, but the Michael Hooper-less Wallabies showed some vulnerability against a dog-eared Wales team. They have rightly taken the plaudits for a magnificent goal-line stand when reduced to 13, but Sam Warburton played into their hands by going setpiece after setpiece - it might have been grinding the Wallabies down, but it also took too much dead time off the clock. Israel Folau is playing on one leg, and it's hurting the team. Of the quarter-finalists, only Scotland (319m per game) have made less than their 419m PG.
(4-0) Pool C winners, v France @ Cardiff
Some pundits found the last 30 minutes against Tonga soothing, seductive even. Rankings is not as easily impressed. In the desperate search for positives, there were a few well-constructed tries, but really, running over the top of Tonga in the final half hour is the least a good All Black team should be doing. We're back on the Dan Carter yo-yo too. A terrible game (Sydney, Cardiff), followed by an uplifting one (Auckland, Newcastle). It goes without saying there's no scope for your playmaker to have rotten days from now on in. Nehe Milner-Skudder and Sonny Bill Williams (most likely off the bench) appeal as the All Blacks most effective gamebreakers.
(3-1) Pool B winners, v Wales @ Twickenham
Remember back when this was the most embarrassing Springbok team to leave the Republic's shores? Since that shock 32-34 loss to Japan, the Boks have won their three games by a combined 144-22. When you consider that included a game against a Six nations team, that's fairly impressive. The Boks rediscovered their muscularity and have shelved any pretence of flamboyance. They kick the ball a lot (37 times per game compared to the All Blacks 27 and Wallabies 28.5) and chase well. Will be tough to beat at grinding, knockout rugby.
(4-0) Pool D winners, v Argentina @ Cardiff
At what cost did the pool victory against France come? To Rankings' eyes, they will miss first-five Johnny Sexton and Peter O'Mahony should they be ruled out of the quarter-final, more than they will Paul O'Connell. While O'Connell has been a talismanic leader for the green, Iain Henderson is a better player and Ireland's lift when he came on wasn't incidental. Pessimistic Irish fans could be forgiven for harking back to 2011, when they spent all their bullets in a heroic pool play victory against the Wallabies, then failed to show up for their quarter-final against Wales in Wellington.
(3-1) Pool C runners-up, v Ireland @ Cardiff
Argentina have shown the benefits of regular rugby against the world's heavy hitters by cruising into the quarter-finals despite an early loss to New Zealand. Known for years as a kick-first side, Argentina have made the most ground metres of the remaining eight teams with 664m PG. New Zealand is next best some way back with 586m PG. Of course, that doesn't matter much if you can't turn that ground into points, but Argentina are much improved creatively, with Nicolas Sanchez and Juan Martin Hernandez giving them twin points of attack. A real chance to beat a possibly depleted Ireland.
(3-1) Pool A runners-up, v South Africa @ Twickenham
Six points was a pretty miserable return for all their possession (60%) and territorial (63%) advantages over Australia. Yes, they were just a Taulape Faletau tryline fumble from taking a lead that may have proved decisive, but when they needed to conjure some magic, they suddenly discovered Dan Biggar's limitations as a playmaker. With their backs playing so deep, Jamie Roberts has yet to be a factor at this RWC; he is due a big game South Africa. Riding the back of a crowd that you assume will be mostly cheering those in red, Wales has a decent but not compelling chance of beating the Boks.
(3-1) Pool D runners-up, v NZ @ Cardiff
This is all going to sound a bit same-old, same-old, but France showed next to nothing in Pool D aside from a dominant setpiece against Italy. When they couldn't beat up Ireland in a similar fashion, they lacked any wit to change their game. Given that they endured similar pool play lethargy in 2007 and particularly 2011, then they'd be feeling pretty good about their quarter-final chances then. Conventional wisdom suggests it is no way to build a campaign, but it has become the French way. They might not be good enough to beat the All Blacks, but you can guarantee there will be no fear and they will find a way to be as difficult an opponent as possible.
(3-1) Pool B runners-up, v Australia @ Twickenham
They were in all sorts of bother against Samoa, which would have opened the door for Japan to escape from Pool B, so they resorted to roundhead rugby and it was utterly predictable, painful to watch, and gallingly effective. Samoa conceded 20 penalties, a whopping 14 of them in their own half (twice as many as the Scots), and the vast majority in the second half. Scotland played Jaco Peyper to perfection, kicked for the lines and used their lineout drive ad nauseam to grind Samoa to dust. That approach, unfortunately, could be their only hope against the Wallabies, too.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, Rankings still doesn't hate Chris Robshaw's decision to go for the lineout drive against Wales (although he still can't believe he called to himself at the front of the lineout). However, if time could be reversed and Owen Farrell slotted the kick, you'd have to say England would be a greater chance of tipping over South Africa this weekend than Wales.
JAPAN
With the RWC going to the Land of the Rising Sun and a new Super Rugby team - hello, Sunwolves! - this was an important tournament for Japan. Not only did they exceed expectations in terms of results, but they played a more engaging brand of footy than many of the 'big' teams. You can only imagine what would have happened if they didn't get Scotland four days after their breathtaking win against the Boks.
FIJI
Royally shafted by the tournament organisers, if they had more means they could easily have taken World Rugby to The Hague for crimes against humanity. As it was, they played some good rugby (though, strangely muted in their opener against England) and their set-piece was particularly good. If they can get the balance between their new mastery of the static phases and their natural ball-running, they'd be brilliant.
ITALY
Okay, they beat Canada (just) and Romania, and pushed Ireland, but that was an awful campaign, completely devoid of verve or imagination. After 15 years privileged status in the Six Nations, they just don't get any better.
GEORGIA
Running on fumes by the end of the tournament, as you'd expect for a country that is developing a rugby infrastructure, Georgia showed that the Six Nations should not be a closed to the established nations. With a bit of TLC, Georgia could be every bit as good, if not better, than Italy.
SAMOA
Finally showed some signs of life against pretty ordinary Scotland team. This was a hugely deflating campaign for the tiny nation that had such an uplifting start to this international year when they hosted the All Blacks.
Ditto from Georgia, except that Romania got a little stronger as the tournament went on.
THE STRAGGLERS
Eric Fry, left, and Zach Test of the USA at the end of the Rugby World Cup Pool B match between USA and Japan. Photo / AP
TONGA
Had some good performers - Nili Latu and Telusa Veainu - in an otherwise poor campaign. Loss to Georgia set the tone, saved their best for first half against the All Blacks.
CANADA
They do a few nice things, but what they never do is win. Butchered loss to Romania symptomatic of their fortunes. Quality wing in DTH van der Merwe.
NAMIBIA
Played about as well as could be expected and tackled bravely, though took the negative option too many times.
USA
They will use their commercial might to seduce more big teams to visit but honestly, the US is going to have to get better, fast, to make anything other than a money-making jaunt. Disappointing.
URUGUAY
Didn't disgrace themselves, but at the same time never looked like they belonged on this stage. It will be interesting to see in the next few years if they can get any of their best players into the Argentine Super Rugby side.
