Selectors consumed by World Cup obsession

New Zealand's escalating obsession with the 2007 World Cup can be linked to failures in the last four tournaments.

After the glorious start when the World Cup began in 1987, the disappointments have flowed for a nation weaned on the rich tradition of the All Blacks. With each downfall, the craving for success has grown.

That preoccupation is fuelled by a global itinerary in which all schedules seem to be interludes for the tournament hosted in France with games in Scotland and Wales.

International rugby appears to be an amalgam of matches mixed with a series of excuses about games being too early, player burnout, contract squabbles or building for the future until the Webb Ellis Trophy is up for grabs again.

It does not seem that long ago that New Zealand was still getting over the semifinal defeat in Sydney in 2003 while much of the talk from the All Blacks now is about the 2007 event.

The selectors have already been on a reconnaissance trip to France this year to check on probable headquarters for the All Blacks, training grounds and other arrangements for the sixth global tournament.

The All Blacks have at least another 20 tests (depending on schedule alterations) before the World Cup begins in September 2007 but much of the strategy is being geared towards that event.

At one stage the All Black selectors were going to treat their Grand Slam quest as the template for their World Cup approach to selection and tactics.

Their eyes were on how best to deal with the transition from the final pool game to the knockout stage and the start of what they hoped would be a three-match stretch to the final.

But they veered away from that concept with the decision to take 35 players for the four-test trip against Wales, Ireland, England and Scotland. The only way to deal with that large contingent was to give them all games.

So while the focus stayed on the World Cup, the approach altered.

The tour became one for sifting talent, judging those the panel thought were capable of making the leap to internationals, getting more players up to test standard.

Midweek matches were no longer part of All Black life so this trip had to be used to evaluate whether some of the peripheral players were up to international quality.

This was the best opportunity for the coaching staff to judge newer faces rather than from afar in the Super 14 or the Junior All Blacks programme.

The tour became an exercise in developing players for the next World Cup rather than testing the stamina and ability of an elite group of 22 players to get through four tough tests on the bounce.

Even after the superb 41-3 victory against Wales, that entire XV had to be dropped. It was all change for Ireland this Sunday at Lansdowne Rd.

Richie McCaw will captain the side, John Afoa and Jason Eaton will make their international debuts while there are reprieves, after some time away from test rugby, for Nick Evans, Mose Tuiali'i and Sitiveni Sivivatu.

The last time the All Blacks ventured to Ireland it was 2001 and John Mitchell was the coach after the sudden exit of the previous panel. Anton Oliver captained the team, which had experienced men such as Jonah Lomu, Tana Umaga, Andrew Mehrtens and Norm Maxwell.

McCaw was a rookie that day, preferred to Marty Holah and crowning his test debut with the man of the match award as the All Blacks eventually eased away to a 40-29 victory.

McCaw's selection for the tour came on the back of one impressive NPC campaign while his selection for the opening test against Ireland was one of those inspired gambles.

The All Black selectors will be looking for a similar gold offering this weekend.

However in operating their World Cup identification programme rather than their original World Cup simulation campaign, they may be risking the All Blacks' productivity.

Players such as Umaga, for example, are much better after a concerted run of games, but he will hit the England test with limited match preparation.

Assistant coach Steve Hansen argued this week that the rotation policy created greater competition within the squad. Others believe it sends a woolly message about guaranteed selection.

We will never know if the All Blacks would have made such widespread changes if the threat from the Home Nations was stronger. Their lack of top-line calibre and fragility at the start of their international programme has allowed the All Blacks to take their selection liberties.

What will they produce? Hopefully a test win against Ireland with signs they have the international quality to push on to 2007.

We are two years into that World Cup cycle, and with the same time left before the next tournament, a great deal can happen in players' development.

Joe Rokocoko, Mils Muliaina, Daniel Carter, Jerry Collins and Keven Mealamu were novices at the last event in Australia where they made such an impact.

Since the start of Henry's coaching tenure last season, Carlos Spencer, Andrew Mehrtens, Justin Marshall, Xavier Rush, Keith Robinson, Kees Meeuws, Marty Holah, Sam Tuitupou, Simon Maling, Craig Newby, Casey Laulala, Stephen Bates, Jerome Kaino, Norm Maxwell, Corey Flynn, Sosene Anesi, Campbell Johnstone and Kevin Senio have dropped off the selection radar.

Some were past their use-by date, while others such as Derren Witcombe, Jono Gibbes, Greg Somerville and Luke McAlister are injured, but you have to question what happened to the development of some of the rest.