Scotty Stevenson: The great rugby coaching gamble

Some coaches call them "finishers" rather than reserves or bench players, but if the first All Black hit-out has taught us one thing about the "other eight blokes" it's that the timing of their entry to a game is still the great coaching gamble.

The All Blacks' non-starters deserve plenty of kudos for the way they were able to change the tempo of the test against Argentina on Monday morning. This team has long prided itself on its ability to play for 80 minutes, and it's the bench that is on the field in that final 60 seconds, closing out matches or, as we have seen recently, snatching wins.

There was something significant, however, in the All Blacks' substitution policy against the Pumas, and the last test between these two at Christchurch provides context.

Steve Hansen called his first non-injury substitution, Nepo Laulala for Owen Franks, in the 54th minute of that test during the Rugby Championship. There had been one other earlier change, in the 51st minute, but that had been forced by the injury to Waisake Naholo.

In contrast, Argentina made three changes by the same stage. Captain Agustin Creevy scored the first of his driving tries just a minute later. The All Blacks did not make a further substitution until the 59th minute, when Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock and Luke Romano were replaced, and made their last swap in the 73rd minute.

Compare that with Monday morning when Hansen called on his bench much earlier in the second half. Woodcock and Ma'a Nonu were replaced after just 46 minutes by Wyatt Crockett and Sonny Bill Williams. Four minutes later, Owen Franks was substituted for Charlie Faumuina, and Nehe Milner-Skudder was brought to the sideline for Beauden Barrett.

Three minutes after that, and with Argentina having made only one substitution, the All Blacks crossed for their first try. Timing, as they say, is everything. Put another way, the All Blacks made four substitutions against Argentina in quicker time than they had made one against them back in Christchurch.

Back in the Rugby Championship test against South Africa, New Zealand implemented a similar strategy in a test locked 10-all at halftime. James Broadhurst was the first to go, replaced by Sam Whitelock at halftime. Nonu was next at the 46-minute mark. Woodcock followed in minute 49. The All Blacks made eight changes in 14 minutes, TJ Perenara entering the game in the 64th minute. New Zealand won 27-20.

A fortnight later, the bench plan looked quite different. Under intense pressure from an Australian side that had jumped ahead early in the second half, the All Blacks staggered replacements across 33 minutes of the final 40.

In the South African game, New Zealand swapped out their front row by the 62nd minute. Against Australia, the second of their front-row substitutions was not made until the 68th, and their last was not complete until the 73rd.

A week later, at Eden Park, the All Blacks once again cleared the pine in record time. Though they started later (Woodcock and Milner-Skudder were the first pair to go in the 51st minute) Steve Hansen had worked through his full complement of players with 13 minutes remaining. The All Blacks cruised to victory. While the timings may have been different on Monday (substitutions were made across a 24-minute period of the second half) one thing that echoed the Eden Park strategy was the pairing off of replacements.

Maybe this is more science than gambling. Either way, one thing is true: you gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.