Scotty Stevenson: Don't let facts and stats spoil the occasion

Referee Nigel Owens. Photo / Greg Bowker

I could tell you about facts. Like the fact New Zealand are the overwhelming favourites to win a third rugby World Cup this weekend and so they should be. I could tell you about numbers and figures and the percentage of referee Nigel Owens' tournament penalties that have been awarded at scrums. It's 15 per cent, in case you were interested.

I could tell you that Australia have missed more than 18 tackles a match at this World Cup and New Zealand have averaged 10. I could tell you that the Wallabies missed 33 in their semifinal victory over Argentina and New Zealand missed 30 fewer than that in their semifinal win over South Africa.

I could tell you that New Zealand concede fewer penalties a game than Australia do, , and that they concede fewer of them inside their own half. I could tell you that New Zealand's back three have run for a combined 1285m in this tournament, and that they hold three of the top five spots in this particular category. I could tell you that their Australian counterparts have made 803m, and none of them make the top 10.

I could tell you that Australia have made the advantage line on 59 per cent of their carries, and New Zealand have done so 68 per cent of the time. I could tell you that New Zealand have made 14 lineout steals and Australia eight. I could tell you that New Zealand have scored more points, and scored more tries, and run more metres, and had one extra day to prepare for the final.

I could tell you that in the four years since the last World Cup New Zealand have won eight of the 11 matches played between these countries, and that Australia have won one. Yeah, I could tell you all of that.

I could tell you that in the past five weeks the Australian team have made 726 tackles, and 157 of those were made in last weekend's match against Argentina. The All Blacks have made 551 tackles in this tournament and had to make 83 in their semifinal. In other words, and for the non-mathematicians in our midst, the All Blacks defensive workload last week was a shade over half that of the Wallabies.

I could tell you that scheduling does matter, and that although New Zealand and Australia have played six games, the All Blacks played across 35 days, while the Wallabies played across 33.

I could tell you that the All Blacks lose fewer scrums, and are penalised less at scrum time than the Wallabies. I could tell you that the percentage chance of Israel Folau not playing more than 40 minutes of the match is around about 92 per cent.

And then I could tell you this: that one loss in Sydney this year is what every New Zealand fan thinks about when they think about this final. Because no matter how dominant, how tactically astute, and how far ahead the All Blacks have proved to be in the past four years, fans always dread the worst. And, as always, the worst is the Wallabies winning a World Cup.

They'll be dreading all week that David Pocock is a robot sent from the future to win turnover ball and get away with it. They'll be dreading all week that moment Nigel Owens sends Richie McCaw to the sin bin. They'll be dreading all week that turning point when the All Blacks are penalised 5m out from their own line at scrum time. They'll be dreading all that and thinking about Horan and Campese at Lansdowne Rd 24 years ago today. They'll be thinking about Stirling Mortlock's interception in the semifinal in 2003, and the most memorable on-field utterance in RWC history, "four more years".

So yeah, I could tell you all about the facts and stats and why the Wallabies have absolutely no chance of winning this game -- I really could.

The fact is, however, that would take away all the fun this week, wouldn't it?