Rugby's last chance

Rugby's future as a sport is at stake and an All Blacks-Wallabies final could be the best outcome. Photo / Getty Images

As much as the International Rugby Board is held prisoner by its northern-centric bent, there will be a few fingers crossed that last night's test was indeed a dry run for the World Cup final.

The game desperately needs to grow its audience, win more sponsors and capture more hearts and minds - something it failed spectacularly to do in 2007. The IRB has statistics to say what a rip-roaring success the last tournament was. But behind closed doors there was a defined sense of failure; the growth numbers in terms of new players, new sponsors and legacy merchandise sales were the bare minimum.

What memory of the last tournament could impressionable youngsters still hold dear four years on? The tournament was won by a team exclusively reliant on bludgeon. The four semifinalists couldn't do pass and catch; they could all do kick and chase. Barely a single game, other than Wales versus Fiji,was driven by spectacle rather than drama. The knockout rounds were tense and edgy, but they always are. While there was some quality set piece execution and heroic defence, those dark arts tend only to be loved by those with the game in their soul.

Physicality alone doesn't tend to inspire those only flirting with the code; those hoping they will have a wee look and see if it goes anywhere; see if they can make some lasting connection. The masses tuned in and quickly enough tuned out - unsure that rugby was much of a game. There was no more compelling evidence of that than the IRB upping the pressure on the southern hemisphere to be the first to trial the Experimental Law Variations which were designed to make the contest faster and slicker. It helped that New Zealand and Australia were both knocked out in the quarter-finals and that the Anzacs are always a sucker for any idea that promotes rugby as a ball-in-hand game.

In the final two weeks of the last World Cup, officials from the three Sanzar nations were locked in talks with their respective broadcast partners to see if they could agree to trial the ELVs in the 2008 Super 14. The IRB was delighted when agreement was reached - South Africa were just as willing to buy into this new vision - before the final.

The announcement gave the IRB some positive PR to at least allude to a brighter future; it was a case of them almost admitting the game was in a dire place at that time; asking everyone to stick with it as a brighter future loomed. As it turned out the ELVs were culled 12 months later - found guilty of rugby by misadventure - and the game fell into a worse place than it had been in 2007.

We had relentless kick and chase in 2009 - the interpretations making it too risky for any team to hold the ball for any length of time. Rugby was set up to be played without the ball and yet more loyal fans drifted away in search of something else to do with their time.

Some ground was won back in 2010 with stronger refereeing which handed basic rights back to the team in possession and rugby became a game of choice again. Five weeks out from the World Cup and everything is precariously balanced. Another kick-and-chase World Cup dominated by brutish teams and the momentum built in the last 18 months will quickly stop. New Zealand and Australia are clearly the two most skilled teams in world rugby. Their respective backlines have no peer - only the Irish are remotely capable of moving the ball with such crispness and complexity. They can both play wide and fast and New Zealand at least can play a less adventurous game, if needs be, where they keep the ball tight and use the boot more regularly. Most skilled and most versatile doesn't equate to being the best and no one should think that (by virtue of being more creative), New Zealand and Australia are better equipped than the other 18 countries to win.

They are better equipped to sell rugby as a multifaceted game.They are better equipped to sell rugby as a game for the masses, on account of the entertainment value they inevitably provide by calculated risk-taking and precise execution of the basics.

After five consecutive World Cups where substance has triumphed over style, it feels like rugby desperately needs a champion side that can offer both. Certainly the organisers will be hoping for a breakthrough. Ticket sales are everything for New Zealand and chief executive of RNZ 2011 Martin Snedden knows the value of high tempo, highly skilled football.

"If we can see some good, open rugby in those early games then I think it will sweep everyone along. We need someone to light up the tournament and then other teams to follow that lead. That can happen at World Cups - where a classic game can inspire other countries and you end up with everyone excited about what is happening and wanting to be a part of it.

"The opening game will be important and I think from a New Zealand perspective the pool game against France will have an effect on how people are thinking. But Samoa could really do much to excite and I suspect Wales will be sitting there feeling quite nervous about having to play them. I think also the USA versus Russia game will have a big impact."

The tournament needs more than just a good start, though. The spectacle and drama needs to be present through to the final. It's one thing to have memorable football in the pool rounds but another to deliver it in the knock-out stages. If it is not sustained then it's easy to dismiss the earlier rugby as frivolous - exhibition stuff before the proper event.

How much more compelling would it be if New Zealand and Australia play out a typical Bledisloe Cup-style encounter at Eden Park on October 23? What will it do for the standing of the game globally if the likes of Dan Carter, Quade Cooper and Sonny Bill Williams are able to run through their entire repertoire on the biggest stage of all? How many kids ran out to the backyard after the 2007 final squabbling over who would be Butch James and who would be Jonny Wilkinson?

Yet in comparison, after his appearance at Murrayfield in November last year, SBW set young hearts racing. Coaches in Scotland can confirm that kids across the country spend the time before training off-loading 'out the 'ack door' - all pretending they are Williams. It takes more than hoisting the ball into the sky to inspire and nor would it be such a bad thing if we saw a few tries in the final.

In 1991 there was one try in the final; none in 1995; two in 1999; two in 2003 and none in 2007. The few that have been scored are barely memorable. We can remember Serge Blanco in the semifinal of 1987; Jonah Lomu in the semi-finals of 1995 and 1999; the fest that came when New Zealand played Wales in 2003 and the Fijians and Welsh playing out their 38-34 classic in the pool rounds of 2007.

But the final of any tournament is yet to produce any inspiring try. The All Blacks playing Australia on a fast track with a dry ball on October 23 is the best chance rugby has to establish itself as a proper global code. The World Cup is more than a quest to find the globe's champion team. As Gregor Paul suggests, rugby's future as a sport - its appeal and growth - is at stake and an All Blacks-Wallabies final could be the best outcome.

World Cup Analysis
1987 - HoS Entertainment Rating: 7/10
No one was quite sure what to make of the inaugural tournament.The English and others felt it was an end-of-season 'piss up' while the All Blacks and Wallabies took it all seriously. New Zealand won with a blitzkrieg style of rugby that was built on brutal forward play and a backline as good as any ever seen. They showed that rugby could be a bit of everything.
Heroes:
Michael Jones, John Kirwan, John Gallagher, Serge Blanco.
Best Games:
Scotland v France - pool round
France v Australia - semifinal
The Final:
A predictable occasion where everyone knew the All Blacks would win and it was a matter of them getting on with it.

1991 - HoS Entertainment Rating: 4/10
Disjointed in terms of organisation as it was split across five countries, the 1991 tournament would have been dire had it not been for Australia and Western Samoa. The Samoans beat Wales in the pool round and won the hearts of everyone. The All Blacks were a dour, unlikeable team with aging stars. The French imploded and the Scots and English were organised but limited. The Wallabies saved the day with their innovative back play.
Heroes: David Campese, Apollo Perelini, TimHoran, Michael Lynagh
Best Games:
Australia v Ireland - quarter-final
Samoa v Scotland - quarter-final
The Final:
England tried to play with the ball which was strange as they were no good at it and actually made things worse and in an unwelcome role reversal, Australia's only try was scored by prop Tony Daly who flopped over from one metre.

1995 - HoS Entertainment Rating 9/10
The best World Cup to date. Played in one country at big venues, the rugby was both tense and skilled. The All Blacks took the game to a new level. They were fitter and faster than everyone else and wanted to keep the ball moving - understandable given that they had the most amazing player on the left wing. There were other teams there that wanted to keep possession and use the ball creatively and it was a World Cup that kept everyone gripped right into extra time of the final.
Heroes: Jonah Lomu, Gavin Hastings, Chester Williams, Josh
Kronfeld, Thierry Lacroix, Zinzan Brooke.
Best Games:
New Zealand v England - semifinal
Scotland v France - pool round
Samoa v South Africa - quarter-final
The Final:
Wasn't the fitting ending in terms of spectacle because the All Blacks, through a combination of illness and Springbok tenacity, were never able to open up. The game was tense beyond belief but, with the outcome known, it wasn't worth ever going back to watch on video for its aesthetic appeal.

1999 - HoS Entertainment Rating: 7.5/10
Another disjointed tournament played across five countries, it did at least improve as it went on. The Australians won on the strength of their defence and their ability to stay cool under pressure. The Boks were there to drop goals; England were all over the place;Wales played open rugby but had no forwards and the All Blacks never really convinced before France pulled their root out. There were a handful of good games, lots of good intentions but the tournament never quite held its form.
Heroes: Tim Horan, John Eales, Joost van der Wesihuizen, Jonah Lomu, Christophe Lamaison.
Best Games:
New Zealand v France - semifinal
NewZealand v England - pool round
Wales v Samoa - pool round
The Final:
Was never going to be a proper contest as the French were dead on their feet after the semifinal. Australia were functional and clinical and knew that was all they had to be.

2003 - HoS Entertainment Rating: 6.5/10
This was the tournament where scrums really started to become a problem and there was consternation about the different interpretations at the breakdown, depending on which hemisphere the referee came from. England were the best team and deservedly won but they kept things simple - apply the pressure through the forwards and then kick the goals. The tournament didn't have an epic encounter to set things alight and it meandered to a conclusion that was thrilling without actually offering much in the way of quality rugby.
Heroes: Martin Johnson, Jonny Wilkinson, Richard Hill, Elton Flatley.
Best Games:
New Zealand v Wales - pool round
England v Samoa - pool round
The Final:
Easily the best final so far. It was epic in its intensity and commitment but lacked adventure. The drama was unforgettable but the rugby was limited.

2007 - HoS Entertainment Rating: 3/10
This was a miserable World Cup where the referees had no control and precious few teams had any skill or vision. It was tedious rugby from start to finish which was hard to enjoy.
Heroes:
Bryan Habana, Victor Matfield, Butch James, Mike Catt, Thierry Dusautoir
Best Games:
Wales v Fiji - pool round
The Final:
Awful. Two teams that didn't want to lose kicked and chased for 80 minutes.