Rugby World Cup quarter-final predictions, how to watch, squads

The Herald runs through the four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals and picks the four semifinalists.

Wales v Argentina

Sunday 4am, Marseille

Warren Gatland’s side can book a semifinal spot for the second straight tournament with the winner of this quarter-final facing either Ireland or the All Blacks in the final four. Wales began their campaign by holding off a late comeback attempt by Fiji, winning 32-26 after leading 32-14 with seven minutes to play. They then beat Portugal 28-8 before their performance of the World Cup with an impressive 40-6 thrashing of Australia - their biggest win over the Wallabies. A 43-19 victory over Georgia secured top spot in Pool C.

Argentina didn’t book their spot in the quarter-finals until their final Pool D win over Japan. Michael Cheika’s side opened with a disappointing 27-10 defeat to England before edging Samoa 19-10 in Saint-Etienne. The Pumas eased by Chile 59-5 before their breathtaking clash with Japan which decided second spot.

World rankings: Wales 7th, Argentina 9th

Why Wales will win: Gatland’s style of play is made for knockout rugby.

Why Argentina will win: Win the forward battle and make their kicks at goal. Taulupe Faletau and Gareth Anscombe missed by Wales.

Head to head

Overall - Played 21 - Wales won 14, Argentina won 6, drawn 1

Last meeting - Wales 20-13, Cardiff, November 12, 2022

At the World Cup: 1991 pool Wales 16-7, 1999 pool Wales 23-18

TAB odds

Wales $1.47, Argentina $2.70

How to watch

Sky Sport 1 from 3.45am Sunday

Herald prediction

Wales by three

Lineups

Wales: Liam Williams, Louis Rees Zammit, George North, Nick Tompkins, Josh Adams, Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Aaron Wainwright, Tommy Reffell, Jac Morgan (captain), Adam Beard, Will Rowlands, Tomas Francis, Ryan Elias, Gareth Thomas. Reserves: Dewi Lake, Corey Domachowski, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Christ Tshiunza, Tomos Williams, Sam Costelow, Rio Dyer.

Argentina: Juan Cruz Mallia, Emiliano Boffelli, Lucio Cinti, Santiago Chocobares, Mateo Carreras, Santiago Carreras, Tomas Cubelli; Facundo Isa, Marcos Kremer, Juan Martin Gonzalez, Tomas Lavanini, Guido Petti, Francisco Gómez Kodela, Julian Montoya (captain), Thomas Gallo. Reserves: Agustín Creevy, Joel Sclavi, Eduardo Bello, Matias Alemanno, Rodrigo Bruni, Lautaro Bazan Velez, Nicolas Sanchez, Matías Moroni.

Ireland v New Zealand

Sunday 8am, Saint-Denis

So they meet again. Four years ago the All Blacks steamrolled the Irish at the same stage. Since then, the two teams have met four times, with Ireland winning three of them, including a first series win on New Zealand soil last year. Ireland finished top of Group B after opening with an 82-8 thrashing of Romania and another big win over Tonga before an enthralling 13-8 win over the Springboks. They ended pool play in style with a brilliant 36-14 win over Scotland to show they are certainly in form.

The All Blacks have been picking up the pace following their opening-night 27-13 defeat to France. Since then it’s been smooth sailing for Ian Foster’s side, who haven’t been tested. They crushed Namibia 71-3 before a 96-17 pasting of Italy and wrapping up pool play with a 73-0 win over Uruguay. The All Blacks scored 38 tries in pool play, the most of any team, 11 more than Ireland, but they’ll face a much sterner task in Paris than they have the last three matches.

World rankings: Ireland 1st, New Zealand 4th

Why Ireland will win: They’re such a well-oiled machine with 17 straight wins, even a quarter-final hoodoo won’t stop them.

Why All Blacks will in: They find that form which saw them crush the Springboks and Wallabies earlier in the year.

Head to head

Overall - Played 36 - All Blacks won 30, Ireland won 5, drawn 1

Last meeting - Ireland 32-22, Wellington, July 16, 2022

At the World Cup: 1995 pool All Blacks 43-19, 2019 quarter-final All Blacks 46-19

TAB odds

New Zealand $2.00 Draw $18.00 Ireland $1.80

How to watch

Sky Sport 1 from 7am Sunday

Listen to commentary: Join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio

You can also find live updates at nzherald.co.nz.

Herald prediction

All Blacks by three

Lineups

All Blacks: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor 1 Ethan de Groot. Reserves: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jonathan Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter. Reserves: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Jimmy O’Brien.

England v Fiji

Monday 4am, Marseille

It was only in August that Fiji went to Twickenham and stunned the English for their maiden win over the 2003 World Cup winners. England opened their campaign with a 27-10 win over Argentina followed by a 34-12 victory over Japan which all but confirmed top spot in Pool D. They rolled on to thrash Chile 71-0 before needing a late comeback to beat Samoa 18-17.

Fiji opened with that defeat to Wales but backed that up with a superb 22-15 win over Australia. The Flying Fijians appeared to have been grounded since. They then snuck out a 17-12 victory over Georgia before a late defeat to Portugal.

The winner will face either France or South Africa in the semifinals.

Why England will win: Big match experience gets them across the line.

Why Fiji will win: The occasion doesn’t get to them and they play more like they did against the Wallabies than the Portugal defeat.

World rankings: England 6th, Fiji 8th

Head to head

Overall - Played 8 - England won 7, Fiji won 1

Last meeting - Fiji 30-22, Twickenham, August 27, 2023

At the World Cup - 1999 quarter-final playoff England 45-24, 2015 pool England 35-11

TAB odds

England $1.33, Fiji $3.10

How to watch

Sky Sport 1 from 3.45am Monday

Herald prediction

England by 10

Lineups

To be named

Fiji's Josua Tuisova runs to score a try against Australia. Photo / AP

France v South Africa

Monday 8am, Saint-Denis

The hosts opened their campaign with a 27-13 victory over the All Blacks before a less than unconvincing performance against Uruguay, winning 27-12. Big wins over Namibia and Italy saw them top Group A as they head into the quarter-finals in hot form. They have looked the best in the tournament so far but face the three-time champions who certainly know what it takes to win knockout games.

South Africa beat Scotland 18-3 and Romania 70-0 before missed kicks at goal proved costly in a 13-8 defeat to Ireland. The defending champions finished pool play with a 49-18 win over Tonga. The Springboks haven’t played since October 2. France won their last outing last year in Marseille but the Boks claimed the seven previous matches going back to 2010.

Why France will win: Spurred on by home support and the return of Dupont.

Why South Africa will win: The experience off the bench and the know-how to win knockout games.

World rankings: France 2nd, South Africa 3rd

Head to head

Overall - Played 45 - South Africa won 27, France won 12, drawn 6

Last meeting - France 30-26, Marseille, November 12, 2022

At the World Cup: 1995 semifinal South Africa 19-15.

How to watch

Sky Sport 1 from 7.45am Monday

Herald prediction

South Africa by four

Lineups

To be named

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