New Zealander Joe Schmidt has turned Ireland into a green machine and their 2015 form has been as impressive as any team in the world. The three things holding them back from a higher ranking are: they have never beaten NZ (though should have in 2013); they needed a late, late try to beat Scotland at the weekend; and they always flatter to deceive at World Cups. They should emerge first in a tough-ish Pool D.
England will go into this tournament with massive expectation and massive advantage. Twickenham has become a fortress for them and as much as we like to mock it, 80,000 people singing a negro spiritual rarely fails to lift the Red Rose. That said, they have twice been unimpressive against France this month and can appear to be caught between two worlds - the new, more expansive England and the old, highly effective blunt instrument England.
It might be a stretch having France, with a negative 2015 win-loss record, this high, but a side of reserves held England close at Twickenham before beating up the same team at home. But let's face it, there's little point trying to predict which France will turn up - coach Philippe Saint-Andre likely has no idea himself. We're picking them to advance from Pool D in second to face the All Blacks... in Cardiff.
Another team with a negative split in 2015, the scale of South Africa's problems appear deep. They beat an inverted-commas World XV, before laying an egg in the Rugby Championship, which included a horrific home loss to Argentina. Like England, they appear caught between styles, though you suspect their traditional forward-based game will play out well at a World Cup. Will win Pool B, then things get tricky.
You could make a strong argument that Warren Gatland's men are the fifth-best team going into the World Cup... which is kind of meaningless when they are shaping as the third-best team in Pool A. Wales find themselves in this unjustly lowly position because as present Australia and home side England look better equipped to escape from the pool of Death, particularly with those crunch matches both played at Twickers, not Cardiff.
Their 2015 record is padded by South American Championship victories again Paraguay and Uruguay, but of more significance was their groundbreaking Rugby Championship victory over South Africa. Despite admission to Sanzar, Argentina still feel like the ultimate outsiders. They should qualify second out of Pool C, but will not find Tonga or Georgia pushovers. It is hard to see them emulate 2007 when they made the semis.
They own a dreadful record, are an ordinary team, and cannot even really claim to be a country following last year's 'No' vote to secession. However, Scotland won the lottery when it came to the RWC 2015 draw, vying with Samoa, Japan and the fast-improving USA for a presumptive second place in Pool B behind South Africa. This truly is the Pool of Life and nobody is poised to take advantage more than Vern Cotter's team.
It is not just the romance of their gutsy 16-25 loss to the All Blacks that has them this high, but the paucity of quality opposition in Pool B (see above). Samoa won't necessarily have an easy game in their pool, but South Africa would be the only side where you'd say they start overwhelming second favourites - and even that is debatable. Getting touched up by Fiji in Vancouver this month was not a good omen.
The tiny Kingdom have proved tough to topple this year, racking up wins against USA, Canada and Samoa. Following their heroics at the last RWC, where they beat France, they'll fancy themselves a chance of tickling up Argentina and qualifying out of a moderate Pool C. Tonga haven't had much luck avoiding the All Blacks at the big dance, drawing them in pool play for the fourth time in the seven tourneys they have attended.
Like Scotland, the Six Nations strugglers approach the World Cup with little to recommend them except a weak pool. An upset against either France or Ireland and the Italians will advance to the quarter-finals, where they would in all likelihood face the All Blacks. Having had admission to the Six nations since the turn of the century, World Rugby would dearly have loved to have seen a more competitive Italy by now.
Unbeaten in tests this year, Fiji can claim the title of unluckiest team at the World Cup without the tyres of their planes even touching the Heathrow tarmac. The chances of the 2007 quarter-finalists progressing from a pool that contains Australia, England and Wales is minimal but their strength should ensure none of aforementioned teams can use them as an opportunity to rest key players. It would be nice to see them win a couple of games.
Yes, their record is excellent but we're unconvinced by how instructive a 20-15 victory over Portugal in Tbilisi is. Probably a more accurate summation of how former Counties man Milton Haig's team is shaping up was offered by twin home losses to Emerging Italy and Emerging Ireland in June. Georgia have proved muscularly effective, without the ability to turn forward parity into points. They remain an outside chance at best of emerging from Pool C.
Exposure to the All Blacks last year and Australia this weekend should see the USA Eagles become the fastest-improving test team in world rugby. Certainly, there is an almost evangelical desire to at World Rugby to see the USA emerge as a sustainable rugby market. Twin victories over Canada and a win against Japan see the Eagles ranked here as the second-best of the out-and-out minnows, just behind the Lelos of Georgia.
THE REST (ranking)
CANADA (18), ROMANIA (17), JAPAN (15), URUGUAY (19), NAMIBIA (20)
