The volatile World Rugby rankings are often scoffed at as a means by which to determine global supremacy. Yet with the All Blacks sitting fourth on that metric, such a standing appears an accurate depiction of their status.
Not so long ago – 2009 to 2019, aperiod of 509 straight weeks – the All Blacks held the record for the longest stretch as the world’s No 1 ranked team.
On reflection that doesn’t reveal the full story, as the All Blacks’ decline can be traced back to the drawn series with the British and Irish Lions in 2017 when they first struggled with a lack of forward dominance and swarming defensive line speed.
Their once-in-a-generation dominance of that decade which extends to claiming two World Cup crowns, though, is undeniable.
Last year, during the depths of their struggles in Ian Foster’s tenure, the All Blacks slumped to fifth in the world, their lowest ranking in history. Few would argue that wasn’t fair, either.
The steady rebuild then began after the change of two assistant coaches. As they locked away the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup earlier this year the All Blacks presented a strong case they were back. They duly climbed the rankings to rise as high as second.
Three compelling victories in the Rugby Championship offered a blueprint of forward-led dominance, crisp passing, playing at a ruthless pace and exploiting space through attacking kicks to the edges.
Foster’s men are now ranked behind Ireland, France and South Africa. After successive, wide-margin defeats to the Springboks and France since leaving home, at this juncture the All Blacks have no claims to be considered among the three elite nations.
That landscape leaves the All Blacks with everything to prove, everything to gain, at this World Cup where the top four ranked teams are on a quarterfinal collision course.
Such a brutal path will absurdly leave two of the best teams reaching the semifinals.
While they were competitive for 50 minutes the All Blacks’ opening World Cup defeat confirmed suspicions they are not, for now at least, on the same level as France, Ireland or South Africa.
France and Ireland have set the bar in this four-year cycle – largely through consistent efficiency and accuracy. Backed by strong set pieces and pressure-based games whether that be through ball retention or squeezing opposition through territory, they are both bolted on title contenders.
With Jonathan Sexton back in the saddle, back whinging, following his suspension for abusing match officials, Ireland are somehow flying under the radar despite holding the mantle as Six Nations champions and the world’s top ranked side.
France weren’t anywhere near their best against the All Blacks but with powerful midfielder Jonathan Danty and highly regarded prop Cyril Baille set to return, the hosts should only improve as they ride the wave of home support.
The Springboks banished memories of their opening World Cup losses in 2015 and 2019 to comfortably dismiss Scotland and start their title defence on the ideal note.
On their day, in a one-off knockout match, the All Blacks possess the ability to conjure a performance to topple anyone. Ellis Park last year proved that notion.
It’s increasingly clear, though, the All Blacks must be close to full strength to achieve those feats, to regain their blueprint from earlier this year and elevate their status.
Inject Jordie Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane, Tyrel Lomax, welcome a fully fit Brodie Retallick and the All Blacks should, indeed, be a different beast.
Their depth, though, isn’t what it used to be. Those worries reared their head when widespread changes were ushered in for the final home test of the year against the Wallabies in Dunedin.
Only when the All Blacks unleashed Aaron Smith and Richie Mo’unga from the bench in the second half, with Sam Whitelock and Ardie Savea also stepping up, did they launch their comeback victory.
When the All Blacks suffer influential absences, as was the case for the World Cup opener, and they are forced to dig two or three deep in specific positions, they don’t harness the same quality to fill those voids they once did.
This is partly why serious concerns have emerged about the All Blacks ability to stick with elite opposition in the final quarter. Where the All Blacks were once the comeback kings, the expert closers, they faded against France with the result there for the taking.
Selection and impact from the bench is another issue on this theme, with Hurricanes halfback Cam Roigard’s absence among the decisions that continues to baffle.
Anything can happen at World Cups. The All Blacks’ fate is far from cast.
Yet with three remaining pool matches before a likely defining quarterfinal, New Zealand lives in anxious hope as the All Blacks seek to prove they belong among the world’s upper echelon.