OPINION
Two big clues have been dropped in the past week about what it will take for the All Blacks to win this World Cup.
The first came from incumbent coach Ian Foster, who made a point of saying how important it will be for the
Rugby World Cup 2023: Why the All Blacks are not fixated on opening game with France - Gregor Paul
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“I know we all want to present ourselves at the peak of our powers at the start and we’re all trying to do that, but it’s how we grow through it. You want to be there at the end and to do that you’ve got to get better each day.”
The best way to interpret this is to understand that the All Blacks are not fixating on their opening game against France.
That first game in Paris will almost certainly determine who finishes top and who finishes second in Pool A - as it is unlikely that either France or New Zealand will have much trouble despatching Namibia, Uruguay and Italy - but it’s unlikely to be tournament-defining.
As South Africa showed in 2019, it’s possible to lose a game and finish second in the pool, and still go on to win the tournament.
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In fact, losing to the All Blacks in their opening encounter in 2019 turned out to be a blessing for the Boks, as it left them with an easier run through to the final as they met Japan in the quarter-finals, then Wales in the semis.
The All Blacks won’t want to be beaten by France, partly because it will dent their confidence and be the first time they have lost a pool game in World Cup history, and also because there remains a possibility of Scotland playing the role of disruptor by beating one of South Africa or Ireland and sneaking into the playoffs.
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Topping Pool A opens the slim prospect of the All Blacks meeting Scotland in the quarter-finals.
But the point Foster made about continual improvement is his way of letting the nation know that all the planning is aimed at having the All Blacks at their best by mid-October and not necessarily in early September.
It’s a veiled message to say not to panic or write the All Blacks off if they don’t win in Paris this Friday night (Saturday morning NZT) - which takes us to the second clue that was dropped about what it takes to win a World Cup.
This one was left by former coach Sir Steve Hansen, who simplified what went wrong at the last tournament by blaming himself for not being demanding enough of the team in the build-up to the semifinal against England.
Having seen captain Kieran Read pick up an injury in the quarter-final destruction of Ireland - one that left him doubtful for the semi - Hansen says he didn’t put enough pressure on the team during the week to lift their standards again and go through the right intensity of preparation, because he was worried that they would lose their confidence without their skipper.
It was a mistake, he says, because World Cups effectively boil down to being able to produce three successive, strong performances.
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“You have to survive three weeks in a row against really good opponents,” Hansen said.
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“You have a mental slip and are a few per cent down and the other team are five per cent above themselves, then you are gone.”
And time and time again Hansen’s theory has proven to be correct. The only way to win the tournament is to produce quality performances in the final three weeks.
The performances don’t need to be pretty. The rugby doesn’t need to be expansive or creative, but there has to be a combination of determination, accuracy, resilience and strategic sense to get through three knockout games.
Which ties in with Foster’s thoughts about continual improvement. The All Blacks can win this World Cup even if they lose to France this week, as long as they find a way to bounce back in the quarter-finals.
That’s how to win World Cups - play the right style of football, with the right intensity and accuracy in the last three games.
Be it against Ireland, South Africa or Scotland, the All Blacks have to produce something dynamic and destructive in the quarter-finals - one that would universally be considered their best performance of 2023.
Seven days later they have to offer something additional in the semifinals - find a way to be yet more ruthless and effective and almost look like a different team.
And of course, the same thing needs to happen in the final - for the All Blacks to produce their best and least predictable performance of the entire World Cup cycle that night.
That’s the only formula that works - peak late, peak hard and peak three times.
