Rugby World Cup 2023: Why an Ireland quarter-final would be bad news for the All Blacks

OPINION

By Liam Napier in Lyon

Ireland are the real deal - and a very real, daunting, looming obstacle for the All Blacks.

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At this premature stage in the World Cup there is an ever-present danger in putting the cart before the horse. Further upsets may lurk, of course.

The All Blacks must get through Italy and Uruguay to reach the quarter-finals. Ireland must deal with Scotland to ensure they top their pool.

All roads, though, seemingly lead to Ian Foster’s men confronting the world-leading nation in a quarter-final.

That’s not good news for the All Blacks.

In my mind, the Springboks were always the All Blacks’ preferred quarter-final opponent.

South Africa could’ve, possibly should’ve, beaten Ireland in their engrossing pool match in Paris. The Boks sprayed 11 points off the tee to underline Handrè Pollard’s absence. In an otherwise composed officiating performance from New Zealand referee Ben O’Keeffe, South Africa were unfortunate with the final decision of the game where, despite the ball being available, a collapsed maul was ruled on Ireland’s line.

While the Springboks were left to rue those moments, Ireland have seized theirs.

Ireland's Johnny Sexton. Photo / AP

Memories of the 35-7 mauling against the Boks at Twickenham one month ago leave lingering scars for New Zealand rugby fans and, possibly, the All Blacks.

Context is important in that result, though. The All Blacks battled with 14 men and an inexperienced forward pack for 42 minutes following Scott Barrett’s red card. Stuck between two worlds, the Rugby Championship and World Cup, the All Blacks weren’t remotely close to where they needed to be mentally, either.

Yet on the whole, the All Blacks boast a strong recent history of rising to the occasion against the Boks. This is not true of Ireland, who with four wins from their past six tests against the All Blacks, appear to have their number.

Earlier this year, the All Blacks steamrolled the Boks at Mt Smart Stadium. Sure, South Africa’s split squad strategy left them exposed at that stage. A year before that match, though, the All Blacks pulled off their upset triumph at Ellis Park, the home of South African rugby, to save Foster’s tenure.

The previous year, the All Blacks clinched their centenary test with the Boks in Townsville. And in their opening World Cup fixture in 2019, the All Blacks emerged victorious there too.

The deep-seated mutual respect between the All Blacks and Springboks manifests to largely produce a 50/50 landscape whenever these heavyweights collide, with home advantage often the tipping point.

Ireland, though, will start warm favourites for a potential quarter-final against the All Blacks. The obvious caveat everyone will point to is Ireland’s failure to progress past the World Cup quarter-final stage. That’s a weighty burden to bear, but this Irish team are increasingly compiling a compelling case that they are a different beast to previous shoulder-to-shoulder incarnations.

Remember, the pressure of home expectation was supposed to weigh heavily on France in their tournament-opening victory over the All Blacks.

Ireland do not fear the All Blacks anymore. This is a side under Andy Farrell, a calm, gravitas-inspiring leader, rarely if ever rattled, that knocked off history with their first test and series success in New Zealand when they picked the All Blacks apart last year.

Ireland celebrate their try during the 2022 series win over the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport

With Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt summoned to their revamped coaching team, the All Blacks are not the same side that suffered the crippling home series defeat.

Ireland are clearly a better team now, too, though.

After 15 tests undefeated - 28 wins from their past 30 - Ireland deserve the tournament favourites mantle.

Schmidt’s presence, following his seven-year (2013-19) Irish tenure, is a potential trump card for the All Blacks but under Farrell, Ireland have evolved to add more threats to their attack in particular.

Ireland have steadily built over the past four years. They now know their game inside and out. Defensively they are organised and disciplined. The scary part for the All Blacks is Ireland’s proficiency at the breakdown. They owned this area against the Springboks. It wasn’t solely a forward-led effort, either, with the in-form Bundee Aki, Connor Murray and James Lowe all winning turnover penalties.

During their bye week in Bordeaux, while preparing for Italy, the All Blacks attempted to replicate the ferocious contest at the breakdown they will confront in the coming weeks, which sparked tensions that flared up at training.

Ireland, though, continue to set the standards in this pivotal area.

All Blacks captain Sam Cane after the defeat to Ireland last year. Photo / Photosport

Much of the All Blacks’ game relies on generating lightning-quick ball. When they harness go-forward through their forward pack, as they did throughout the truncated Rugby Championship, the All Blacks dictate terms. When they don’t, they are vulnerable.

Ireland’s ability to smother, suffocate and frustrate the All Blacks at the source evokes major concerns for a potential sudden-death showdown.

After losing six lineouts against the Springboks, Ireland can and should improve too.

The All Blacks will be content to be widely written off, to fly well under the radar, as they gather their influential injured quartet - Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane, Tyrel Lomax, Jordie Barrett - and push to qualify for the knockouts.

Ireland have, however, left no ambiguity about the level the All Blacks must reach should they indeed meet at that juncture.

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