As an eternal optimist when the All Blacks are involved (in the stand in Yokohama in 2019, I confidently predicted a second-half comeback in the semifinal we werebadly beaten in by England), I can’t bring myself to abandon hope for the World Cup in France.
But the 27-13 loss to France was a sobering reminder that for the All Blacks to go beyond the quarter-finals, a number of pieces in a rugby jigsaw have to fall into place.
Health really is priceless
When the third Sunday in October rolls around and the quarter-finals begin, please let Sam Cane, Jordie Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Brodie Retallick and Tyrel Lomax all be in good health.
The harsh reality is that there isn’t the same level of experience and talent throughout the whole squad, and the nearer we get to the best XV on the field, the more chance of getting past either South Africa or Ireland in the quarters. Bizarrely, a quarter-final win would almost certainly be followed by an easier semifinal.
The ball should be gold
Israel Dagg perfectly expressed the angst many Kiwis were feeling when, immediately after the French loss, he said, “We kicked aimlessly, and gave away too many penalties.”
There’s a host of rugby intelligence in the All Black camp, but somehow nobody cottoned on to the fact that when a French team have a sniff of hope, the last thing needed are kicks so long there’s no pressure from chasers. France will make you pay.
In the blistering heat in Paris, beefy French forwards needed to be chasing All Blacks running the ball at them, not slowly jogging to lineouts, sometimes pausing play to retie mysteriously loose bootlaces.
The penalties? A 13 to five count against the All Blacks was a scary reminder of how, at World Cup level, playing to the referee, no matter how irritating or erratic he may be, is essential. If we can’t do that, we’ll be flying home after the quarter-final.
Telea showed what’s possible
There are some hugely potent forwards in other teams at this Cup, and some deadly goal-kickers.
But the brilliant elusiveness of All Black wing Mark Telea in Paris showed where the All Blacks have a point of difference, and how attacking through the backline is surely our best hope for success.
In our third pool game, against Italy, how great would it be to see a three-quarter line of Telea, Rieko Ioane, and Leicester Fainga’anuku, with Will Jordan at fullback? Giving our four best runners their heads would not only be fascinating to watch, but could also be the key to victory in the knockout stages.
Huge courage from the English, reduced to 14 men in the fourth minute when Tom Curry was red-carded after a head clash with Juan Cruz Mallia. As bad a display of clumsy, dumb rugby as I’ve ever seen from the Pumas. Brilliant accuracy from first-five George Ford, who kicked every English point. And capping it off was the almost comically one-sided display by French referee Mathieu Raynal.
My impression of his refereeing was surprisingly shared by Stephen Jones, of the London Sunday Times, who rarely sees an England goal kick he doesn’t like.
He wrote: “It must also be said that the referee, Mathieu Raynal, eventually went partly bonkers. He gave all the 50/50 calls to England, but by the end he was giving England the 10/90 calls as well. Some of his penalties against Argentina were bizarre.”
The also-rans aren’t a threat
Poor Namibia, who the All Blacks meet in Toulouse next Saturday, showed courage but not much else in their 52-8 loss to Italy, while Romania were mercilessly dispatched by Ireland, 82-8.
If there are to be upsets in France like the Japanese defeat of the Springboks in 2015, look to the Pasifika teams, and nowhere else.
There is one ace in Eddie’s pack
The Wallabies’ 37-15 win against Georgia was mostly notable for a terrific game from fullback Ben Donaldson. In just his third test, he scored two tries, was defensively impeccable and kicked six of his seven shots at goal.
With South Africa, Scotland and Fiji in their pool, I still wouldn’t be pawning the Akubra hat to get a dollar or two on the Wallabies, but in Donaldson coach Eddie Jones has found a diamond.