OPINION
Gregor Paul in Paris
There will be plenty of people trying to get their heads around the All Blacks being in the Rugby World Cup final.
There will be yet more people trying to get their heads around the All Blacks making it to the
Rugby World Cup 2023: The ‘heroic’ All Blacks stat that defies logic - Gregor Paul
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It defies logic to some extent, and indeed all the statistical trends, that the All Blacks have prevailed, despite having only managed to complete two games - against Italy and Uruguay - keeping 15 players on the park for the full 80 minutes.
On one level it is heroic. That they managed to beat the best team in the world having had to play 20 minutes a man down, is the stuff of Rorke’s Drift.
Digging out that win against Ireland took a depth of bravery and resistance that few teams possess, but as admirable as it was that they found a way to succeed in the quarter-finals, no one should lose sight of the fact that they made things needlessly hard for themselves by being shown two yellow cards in the first place.
Coming into the tournament, discipline was a hot topic for the All Blacks as it was typically one of the first parts of their game to collapse when they were put under intense and consistent pressure.
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Head coach Ian Foster has said numerous times that they have learned the importance of keeping 15 men on the field - and yet here they are in a World Cup final, having only managed to do that in just one-third of their games, and not in either of their knockout encounters.
One of the most egregious examples of their discipline melting down came against South Africa at Twickenham, two weeks before the tournament began - a point the Springboks will most definitely not have forgotten.
There are so many reasons to like the way the All Blacks are currently playing, and yet there remains this nagging suspicion that they may have already used all the luck they are going to get by winning two knockout games and having been shown three yellow cards.
Those statistics don’t quite make sense and if they pick up another one in the final, it may just spoil their chance to make history next week.
What’s yet more incongruous in this yellow card to success ratio the All Blacks are enjoying at this tournament is that they have produced significantly better statistics on the general discipline front.
In their opening two games, they conceded 12 penalties in each - as they battled to stay onside, roll out of tackles, and get cleaners to rucks quickly enough.
But against Italy, Uruguay and Argentina, they conceded just seven penalties. Against Ireland, it was 10 - but critically, the Irish also conceded 10.
So the evidence is there to say that the All Blacks have addressed the most pressing problem they had coming into the tournament, which is their propensity to infringe under pressure, but that they can’t stop having these mad little moments of indiscretion.
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Aaron Smith was perhaps unlucky to have been shown a yellow card given the inconsistencies in refereeing interpretations of the deliberate knock-on law, but Codie Taylor was caught red-handed collapsing a driving maul against Ireland.
Will Jordan was given 10 minutes for taking Thomas Ramos out in the air, when he could have slowed down and waited for the French fullback to land.
Ethan de Groot committed an avoidable high tackle against Namibia and Scott Barrett had a good old-fashioned brain explosion when he was lying on the floor and decided to slap the ball out of the Pumas halfback’s hands.
Of all the yellow cards the All Blacks have picked up in France, Barrett’s was of the greatest concern because a player of his experience and standing couldn’t possibly have thought that it was a good idea to do what he did or that he would get away with it.
His lunacy didn’t hurt the team, and the fact the All Blacks were willing to play the last six minutes of their World Cup semifinal with just 14 men rather than return Barrett to the field after his 10 minutes were up says everything about the madness of the lopsided draw at this tournament.
The All Blacks were so far in front, so untroubled by the Pumas, that head Foster thought it was better to keep Barrett on the sidelines rather than risk him picking up a second yellow.
But it’s hard to imagine New Zealand will be in such a position of comfort in the last 10 minutes of the final against South Africa - and a moment of madness like that could cost them their chance to make history.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.
