Rugby World Cup 2023: Q&A - Liam Napier answers your questions ahead of All Blacks v South Africa final

It would have been a brave punter who’d bet big on the All Blacks back in early September. As the World Cup kicked off, the bookies had New Zealand at longer odds to win than Ireland, France and the Springboks. Then they lost to France in their opening match.

And yet, just six weeks later, the All Blacks are days away from a chance at a sporting redemption story for the ages. As the Herald’s Liam Napier wrote yesterday, victory in Paris on Sunday would arguably trump all their previous global gongs. It’d also see coach Ian Foster deliver the ultimate parting shot to his many critics - in actions, not words.

It’ll be the All Blacks’ fifth Rugby World Cup final and the Springboks’ fourth. Both teams have won the Webb Ellis Cup a table-topping three times, adding an extra edge to Sunday’s showdown.

It’s also a battle for the “soul of rugby”, the Herald’s Gregor Paul argues. “The world ... needs to see that playing rugby, not the anti-rugby version that was on view in England’s semifinal with South Africa, can prevail.”

We had questions, which is why we asked Liam Napier to delay his dinner in France for a live chat with Herald Premium subscribers earlier this morning. Here’s a summary of the discussion (read it in full in the comments section below):

Tim F: Considering the poor ABs form over the past 3 years would you consider Ian Foster’s coaching stint a success after only 1 big tier one win over Ireland since they left for the world cup if they [1] lose the final; [2] win the final

Liam Napier: Take your point about a turbulent few years but there have been other big wins in there too - the Ellis Park victory the most notable prior to the quarterfinal. On the basis of their results in the last four years there’s a strong case that the All Blacks have overachieved by making the final. With so much weight put on the World Cup you would have to say Foster’s coaching tenure to this point is already a success. They’ve already gone better than the All Blacks of four years ago. If they win the final, it’s only the second time in history the All Blacks will claim the Cup on foreign soil.

Herald moderator: Hi Liam. Thanks for working late for us. I have a couple of questions. First, do you think tiredness will be an issue in the final? Some commentators said the Springboks looked tapped out in the semi with England.

Liam N: The All Blacks should definitely be fresher. They’ve had an extra day rest. They had the softer semifinal which allowed the All Blacks to empty their bench midway through the second half - and they even finished that game with 14 men by choice. The likes of Sam Cane, Jordie Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Tyrel Lomax are also relatively fresh after returning from injuries at this tournament. And the All Blacks also rotated heavily through pool play.

Herald moderator: What do you see as the All Blacks’ biggest vulnerabilities going in the final? What about South Africa’s?

Liam N: These teams are very evenly matched. They’ve won three tests each from their last six. They know each other well so there will be few surprises. The Springboks biggest strength is probably their depth and bomb squad bench. It turned their semifinal with that impact and the scrum penalty that ultimately sneaked them past England. This All Blacks team has endured a lot of adversity. In consuming pressure moments that the World Cup final will impose that should help them.

Sam H: My concern with this All Blacks side is that for the last 8 years they have lacked a kicking game to get us out of trouble in our own 22 or to pin the opposition in their own 22. It was a major reason we didn’t win the Lions series and lost the semi final to England in 2019. They were lucky Ireland didn’t capitalise on some poor early kicking in this year’s quarter final. Are we again going to see New Zealand struggle against a conservative team that dominates territory?

Liam N: Fair question Sam. The Boks will kick plenty. They had great success in this area against France in their quarterfinal with three tries coming directly from kicks. They are certain to test the All Blacks back three in this regard. The All Blacks have ample kicking options from Aaron Smith to Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett and Richie Mo’unga but I agree their short kicking game has been better than their long. It’s imperative they get that part right against the Boks. Field position and discipline will be crucial with rain expected.

Bruce G: Liam this weekend is setting up to be right where South Africa thrive. Backs against the wall with the potential loss of their hooker and having a string of tough matches. This suits their mentality down to the ground. My question to you - who do you see as the favourite?

Liam N: The All Blacks are marginal favourites with the bookies - largely based I would suggest on their comparative semifinal performances. I make it a genuinely even odds contest. Three wins each from their last six tests. Three world titles each. Both teams with vast experience. The Boks will be sweating on the racial allegations as they cannot afford to lose another hooker. If World Rugby take action that would tip the balance firmly in the All Blacks favour.

Kelly E: The incoming ABs coach has been back in NZ for 10 days, which is intriguing in itself, and was overheard at a bar in a small coastal Nth Is town last week (where he was visiting the former Black Ferns coach) espousing David Havili as the All Blacks first-five in waiting. That would seem to be a massive call. Thoughts?

Liam N: Can’t see it Kelly. He could be an option but he has limited experience there at Super Rugby let alone the test arena. Damian McKenzie and Stephen Perofeta would be the leading contenders but options are thin with Mo’unga leaving. There’s also a strong chance Beauden Barrett returns home after one year in Japan - though he hasn’t played 10 much recently for the All Blacks.

Tim U: Do you think Foster can get the message through to Scott Barrett to not do anything silly when we’re 2 points ahead, 1 minute to go and defending our line?

Liam N: I’m sure he will be bagging that drum this week Tim. Barrett, of course, had those two yellow cards in the record defeat to the Springboks at Twickenham just prior to the World Cup, forcing the All Blacks to play one man down for the entire second half. And his brain snap last week leaves you nervous doesn’t it? For a potential future All Blacks captain he has a worrying tendency to lose his head at times. Hopefully he got it out of his system last week.

Herald moderator: Do you think the All Blacks’ red and yellow cards show they have a discipline problem?

Liam N: Their general discipline has dramatically improved throughout the tournament but the consistent run of cards is concerning. Somehow they survived two yellow cards in the quarterfinal against Ireland. A similar showing in the final could kill off their World Cup hopes.

Herald moderator: Who’s your All Blacks MVP of the tournament so far?

Liam N: Probably Ardie Savea or Aaron Smith. Mark Telea, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan have been very good too. And don’t underrate how well Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax played against Ireland in particular.

Roger B: All this talk about ‘anti rugby’ is worrying. I hope we take the kicks at goal and don’t arrogantly kick for the corner and enter the lottery for points. We need to do whatever it takes to win - and if that means kicking all game, then so be it. Get in their half, drop kick. Boom! 3 points, just like that.

Liam N: Can see the All Blacks needing someone to step up and nail a drop goal in this one!

Andrew L: In your view, what are each team’s biggest key to victory?

Liam N: There’s no great secret in that the All Blacks will need to match the Springboks’ physicality head on. Get that right, at the set piece, the breakdown and by consistently getting off the line on defence, and the All Blacks can lift the tempo and impose their attacking style to test the Boks’ legs. If the All Blacks are stuck on the backfoot with slow, scrappy ball on a wet night, forced to kick and ill discipline creeps in, it will play into the Boks’ hands. Forget the backs. As with any test, it all starts up front. The All Blacks steamrolled South Africa in the opening 20 minutes at Mt Smart Stadium. The Boks flipped that script to dominate the All Blacks at Twickenham.

Michael R: You and many other journos have been critical to negative about the Ian Foster era. If he leads the ABs to a win in the WC final would you reevaluate your position, in other words does winning a WC define a coaching term?

Liam N: That’s fair Michael. The All Blacks hold themselves to extremely high standards, given their legacy and results. They’ve endured a number of historic lows over the past four years but since the change of assistant coaches mid-last year, their transformation has been largely impressive. There’s been fluctuations in the last 14 months, too, with successive losses to the Springboks and France, but at this tournament the All Blacks peaked when it mattered most to knockout the world No 1 Irish with the best performance of Foster’s era. Foster and the team deserve huge credit for victory on that stage. Ultimately the All Blacks expect to win every test they play but the World Cup carries a huge weight for every nation. A World Cup win would, therefore, undoubtedly redefine Foster’s tenure.

Adrian K: The England/South Africa game demonstrates the problem with rugby rules. The scrum is now a penalty machine and not a contest for the ball. It has destroyed the game as a spectacle.

Liam N: Rugby as we know it must maintain a place for the scrum in my view. It’s what sets the game apart from league. The All Blacks scrum has significantly improved since they last played the Springboks but with the depth South Africa boasts in their world-class propping stocks, this will be their biggest test since then.

Slay T: I would like to see the ABs try something different and put the haka away until they win. It would unnerve the Boks if they just kicked off and got on with it. It more often than not gets screamed or sung over anyway so why not try something different? Just a thought.

Liam N: Interesting view. The haka is intrinsic to the All Blacks - it’s something they do for themselves, to connect, to rise up, more so than anything else. Teams have reacted differently to the haka at times with England, Ireland and France forming different formations with varying degrees of success. Maybe the Boks will try something this weekend?

Herald moderator: Of course I’ve got to put you on the spot with this one - will the All Blacks win on Sunday?

Liam N: I’m going to tip the All Blacks to hold on in a knife-edge finish - similar to their quarterfinal epic.

Mig B: We can pull it off. We will pull it off.

All Blacks v South Africa, World Cup final

8am, Sunday

Follow live updates: nzherald.co.nz

Listen to commentary: Join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio, or catch the ACC on iHeartRadio or Hauraki

Get full coverage of the Rugby World Cup here.