By Liam Napier in Paris
Contenders or pretenders. Champions elect. Destined to depart. Such sweeping conclusions will inevitably be cast in the reverberations of the seismic World Cup opener. For all the hype and anticipation, though, neither the All Blacks nor France’s prospects will be defined by their first-round fate.
South Africa – as the first team in World Cup history to drop a match and claim the crown – proved as much four years ago.
Their opening defeat to the All Blacks benefited the Springboks, placing the eventual champions on the favourable side of the draw that led to a quarter-final with hosts Japan and a semifinal, one of the worst spectacles in history, against Wales.
While the All Blacks knocked out Ireland only to crumble the following week in their semifinal with England, veering in the other direction allowed the Springboks to build and, ultimately, peak in the final against England to clinch their third global triumph.
World Cups by nature are unpredictable. Nothing ever goes to plan. No one knows when the twist will arrive, which upset will alter permutations, only that they are certain to come at some stage.
World Cup opener incoming pic.twitter.com/8bpMBprRdf
— Liam Napier (@liamnapiernz) September 7, 2023
No matter the result at Stade de France this weekend the All Blacks and France are in one of the easiest World Cup pools for the top nations. They must defeat Italy – Namibia and Uruguay too – to reach the knockouts where they will then meet the Springboks, Ireland or, possibly, Scotland.
While the World Cup screenwriters will dramatise the spinoffs of this opening match, the truth is victory will alleviate pressure and should secure a favourable quarterfinal opponent. Defeat, though, will not be terminal for either team. All Blacks coach Ian Foster knows as much.
“I was often asked after 2019 what we’d do differently and I said I’d throw the first game. It doesn’t sound that good though does it,” Foster said as the All Blacks visited the match venue one day before opening night.
“We beat South Africa and the way things happened they ended up with a slightly different path to the final than what we ended up with. You never know in tournaments. You never know the path it’s going to take.
“We’ve got one clear goal which is to qualify and get into a quarterfinal situation because then it’s a one-off game.
Who will win the Rugby World Cup? Our experts’ predictions
“This game is special in its own right. This is my third World Cup and I’ve never seen a build-up to a World Cup quite like this one. I’ve never seen people put so much on it. The fact it’s the home nation who have strong expectations of winning it and it’s against a team the public has a lot of respect for ... it’s well scripted.
“It’s a game we want to commit everything to and, afterwards, it doesn’t really change. Whether we win or lose we’ve still got to qualify out of this group.”
This test is, however, no free hit for the All Blacks. It will reveal their ability to respond from their worst defeat in history at Twickenham two weeks ago; their ability to cope with a hostile foreign atmosphere like no other, and whether they can match one of the elite northern hemisphere nations.
It’s 18 months since the All Blacks suffered their first home series defeat to Ireland. While their forward pack has drastically improved, and they’ve played England, Scotland and Wales away from home since then, France and Ireland have consistently proven to be on another level to their Six Nations rivals.
Hence the gauge this match will provide.
For an All Blacks team that emerged from near-crippling adversity last year, confidence and momentum are valuable commodities, too.
The All Blacks last played France two years ago. On that occasion, they were blown away from the outset to trail by 18 points at halftime. If the selection of Dalton Papali’i at blindside backfires, if the All Blacks are caught as deer in headlights and they can’t stick with France, Le Bleus will turn the passionate wave of support into insurmountable momentum.
The All Blacks have frequently pushed the notion that France must cope with the consuming pressures of their home World Cup. That will only be true, though, if the All Blacks make France feel the burden of their bubble threatening to burst.
In their first three tests this year, when it seemed they had turned a definitive corner, the All Blacks started each of those matches with a compelling blend of forward-led fire and accuracy.
In their last outing against the Springboks, though, they were immediately forced on the backfoot. As the cards, mauls and points flowed, the All Blacks could not quell the onslaught as the pro-South African crowd became increasingly buoyant.
Rugby World Cup: Team-by-team guide
Those scenes promise to reach another stratosphere in Paris if the All Blacks do not meet France from the opening World Cup whistle.
“That’s always on the wish list when you play away from home but definitely for this one,” Foster said. “We were here in 2021 and it was a beautiful environment for rugby. The whole crowd was in a fantastic mood, and we know how well France started that day to put us behind the eight ball.
“We know what’s coming but it’s going to be amplified with the opening ceremony, it’s a special occasion. That’s what World Cups are about. We wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. It’s a privilege to play this first game. We know there’s going to be an onslaught early but we’ve got to make sure we’re the ones involved in doing that as well.”
France will attempt to attack the All Blacks set piece that has wobbled in recent tests and get a roll on through their big, direct ball carries, with inspirational figurehead Antoine Dupont pulling the strings from the base and sniping for weak points around the fringes.
Four starters outs, with Jordie Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Tyrel Lomax and Brodie Retallick missing, will seriously test the All Blacks’ depth.
On paper, France appear better placed to cover their injury absences in the forwards but losing classy playmaker Romain Ntamack and powerful midfielder Jonathan Danty are sizable blows.
Since arriving in the French capital, after suffering further setbacks during their training week in Lyon, the All Blacks have projected a relaxed mood. Foster is urging his troops to arrive shiny-eyed and light to play uninhibited.
Beauden Barrett heeded that message when he said: “These French boys have been waiting for this moment for a long time but so have we.”
The time has come, then, to seize that moment.
Get full coverage of the Rugby World Cup.
France v All Blacks: Kickoff 7.15am, Saturday
Follow the match at nzherald.co.nz
Elliott Smith’s live commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio
Alternative Commentary Collective: iHeartRadio and Radio Hauraki
The former England winger opened up about his struggles post retirement.