The World Cup won’t be won or lost this week. By the end of this year no one will care who won this test.
The All Blacks and Springboks, who have named a strong forward pack and experimental backline that includes rookie centre Canan Moodie, aren’t about to reveal their aces now. Not when they could well collide in a matter of weeks in a World Cup quarter-final.
Cast against that shadowboxing backdrop the risk of losing influential players appears unnecessary.
Injuries and suspensions that have dominated the proliferation of World Cup warm-up games offer further, cautionary tales.
From France losing world-class playmaker Romain Ntamack and leading loosehead prop Cyrill Baille to England captain Owen Farrell and No 8 Billy Vunipola facing nervous dates with the judiciary and former Blues midfielder George Moala copping a five-week suspension, casualties are commonplace.
The counterpoint to these fears is injuries can strike at any time – on the training field, at the gym, in World Cup pool matches against Namibia or Uruguay.
The All Blacks have built confidence and momentum to restore their World Cup contender status this season, with statement wins against the Pumas, Springboks and Wallabies, by largely sticking with their first-choice combinations before experimenting in the final home test comeback victory in Dunedin.
Returning to those established combinations at this point is important. Several starters – Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Beauden Barrett, Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Will Jordan and Mark Telea among them – didn’t feature in the last test against the Wallabies.
If they were then rested from the Springboks, they face the prospect of entering a headline World Cup opener against France in Paris after five weeks with no game time. That’s far too long without refining skills under test pressure.
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The All Blacks will, therefore, reinstate their preferred side for the Springboks, with a view to rekindling those combinations to give them time to recapture the momentum they constructed through the first three tests of this year.
It’s easy to forget the All Blacks favoured back three – Beauden Barrett, Jordan, Telea – have started two tests together.
With Shannon Frizell and Brodie Retallick absent through injury the All Blacks will be forced into two changes to their first-choice side, though.
As the only genuine, fit blindside option in the World Cup squad Luke Jacobson seems destined to replace Frizell. And Scott Barrett, having sat out the Dunedin test after dominating from lock prior to that, will surely join Sam Whitelock in the second-row.
Dane Coles, after expressing his dismay at former All Blacks coach Steve Hansen joining the Wallabies for their pre-World Cup test in France, strongly suggested to New Zealand media in London he will get the chance to play his final test at Twickenham this week, too.
Other than those tweaks the All Blacks are expected to return to their starters which should promote a similar team to the last time they defeated the Springboks at Mt Smart Stadium in mid-July.
All the messaging emanating from the All Blacks camp this week has indicated that approach will transpire. Ian Foster signalled as much before departing New Zealand, and forwards coach Jason Ryan reiterated the same intent after arriving in London.
“It’s no juggling act, we’ll just pick our best team available,” Ryan said. “We’re looking forward to a big physical contest against the Springboks. That’s exactly what we need heading into our first game.
“You’re always going to get injuries. Your squad is always going to be tested so you’ve got to make sure you’ve got guys who can cover multiple positions, which we feel we have. There’s been a lot of cards, clearly, but the rules are pretty obvious.
“You’ve got to get your tackle technique right; stay under the ball and stay away from the head. “You’ve got to have a dominant mindset. If you’re hesitant in anything you do, that’s when injuries happen. That’s how we’re going to prepare.”
Liam Napier has been a sports journalist since 2010, and his work has taken him to World Cups in rugby, netball and cricket, boxing world title fights and Commonwealth Games.