All Blacks coach Ian Foster plus players Richie Mo'unga and Rieko Ioane react to Ethan de Groot's two-match ban following his independent judicial committee hearing in Paris. Video / NZ Herald / Photosport
There is a stat which rather starkly shows the biggest issue facing the All Blacks and which underlines the problems they may face getting past the World Cup quarter-finals.
In their last 25 test matches, Ireland have accrued three yellow cards and zero reds. Inthe All Blacks’ last 25 tests, the count is 11 yellows and three reds.
Now, even if we were to apply the principle that there is an unconscious refereeing bias against the All Blacks, that is a significant disparity that lends weight to those quite correctly saying the All Blacks must mend their discipline to go beyond the quarter-finals. The stat also suggests that the All Blacks have been defending a lot more than the Irish in those 25 tests - as it is a lot harder to attract yellow and red cards when you are the attacking side.
Backing this up is the impressive 59-16 Irish display against Tonga that saw the match won before halftime. Tonga, with several ex-All Blacks and current players in Europe’s strong club competitions, were widely regarded as a potential upset ahead of the pool-defining Ireland clash against South Africa on Sunday. In the end, the only thing upset was Tonga’s hopes of causing an early surprise - and credentials as a team capable of doing that to a Tier 1 nation. Their only chance of advancing now is if they beat the Scots and the Springboks and the Scots topple South Africa (or both Scotland and the Boks beat Ireland - not impossible but unlikely).
Ireland’s calm, assured and efficient dispatch of the Tongans was impressive. They attack with waves of accurate handling, ball recycling and putting players into space, as New Zealand can attest from the lost series to Ireland last year. It was too much for Tonga, who only rarely managed to curb a galloping error rate caused by that same efficiency. The supposed banana skin was more of a bear skin rug, on which the Irish could figuratively relax in their video room and watch the fruits of their labour.
Ireland have several individuals who rank highly in “best in the world” considerations. Foremost must be Bundee Aki, the man from Manurewa, who left New Zealand in 2014 nowhere near an All Blacks cap and who can now be counted as pretty much the best second five in the world. His strongest competition is France’s massive Jonathan Danty, who has yet to start a match in this World Cup after injury, Fiji’s similarly tank-like Josua Tuisova and maybe the All Blacks’ Jordie Barrett (also yet to start). Aki has been in terrific form for two years now. He stands out in all aspects of midfield expertise - the ability to break the line, elusiveness, distribution and defence.
He is, unfortunately for New Zealand Rugby, a shining example for other second-tier players in New Zealand that fame and fortune can be found at club and international level in places like Ireland, who regularly field two other Kiwis who never made the top grade at home but are now respected, world-class internationals: winger James Lowe and halfback Jamison Gibson-Park.
Ireland also have several strong contenders for “world’s best”: props Tadgh Furlong and Andrew Porter, lock Tadgh Beirne, No 8 Caelan Doris and even the evergreen first five Jonny Sexton - and that’s not even mentioning current World Player Of The Year, Josh van der Flier.
There is a theory doing the rounds that the All Blacks would rather play Ireland in the quarter-finals than South Africa, after the Boks gave New Zealand a right spanking last time. But rather play this Irish team? Yeah, but nah.
Another big nah is likely to come from the All Blacks brain trust on the subject of 22-year-old Cameron Roigard, far from just playing his way on to the bench, starting in the coming pool matches and those at the sharp end of this tournament.
There is a good argument for Aaron Smith coming off the bench, when the game is a bit looser and maybe needs an older head. It won’t happen, of course; Ian Foster and co are welded at the hip to Smith - and for good reason; his passing is sublime and a big part of the All Blacks’ attack.
All the recent talk, however, has been focused on just how much top teams have worked out the All Blacks’ style - and how to defeat them by giving them the ball and then defending them into mistakes, penalty goals and scoreboard pressure. But a 90kg halfback who can run, tackle and deliver telling box kicks might just be the key if the All Blacks choose to change style and go more direct.
It won’t happen, but here’s what should: Roigard (amazingly not used off the bench against France) to start against Italy and Uruguay in preparation for the quarter-final.
