KEY POINTS:
SYDNEY - Two-time winners Australia head into next month's Rugby World Cup amid their lowest national expectations and their hopes of progression likely dependent on victory over group rivals Wales in Cardiff.
Coach John Connolly has stabilised the Wallabies after their freefall in 2005 where they lost eight internationals under predecessor Eddie Jones and they vied for this year's Tri-Nations trophy right up to the final Test against New Zealand in July.
Rugby cognoscenti anticipate a World Cup quarter-final showdown against either defending champions England or South Africa in Marseille, but whether that is as group winners hinges on whether they can quench the Red Dragons at Millennium Stadium on September 15.
The Wallabies are confident they have the measure of Japan, Fiji and Canada in their pool, but in their last two games against the Welsh in Cardiff they have drawn (29-29) last year and lost 22-24 in 2005.
So Australia's aspirations of positioning themselves into a favourable sudden-death contest depends on a problematic Test against what will no doubt be a pumped-up Wales in just their second game of the tournament.
Yet dampening expectations is the damning statistic that the Wallabies have won just three (with one drawn) of their last 16 internationals played outside of Australia. Those three victories have come against Ireland, Italy and Scotland.
Much as the last 2003 World Cup when the Wallabies went down to England in the final 20-17 in extra-time, local hopes in France rest on experienced half-backs, George Gregan and Stephen Larkham.
Record-capped Gregan (134 Tests) has fought off challenges for the No.9 shirt with a well-performed international season and his innate understanding with fellow ACT Brumbies' teammate Larkham (101 Tests) carries the Wallabies' chances at the World Cup.
So integral is playmaking Larkham to the Wallabies' chances in France that he is likely to be rested from one of the group matches - probably Fiji in Montpellier on September 23 - to be saved for the sudden-death phase.
The Wallabies have the attacking weapons in the backs with outside centre Stirling Mortlock, inside-centre Matt Giteau, fullback Chris Latham and winger Lote Tuqiri.
But the burning question again is whether the Australians have the forwards' grunt to match it with New Zealand, South Africa, France and England at the World Cup.
Forwards-orientated coach Connolly has worked hard on turning the Wallabies' pack from a liability into an asset and give enough quality ball to the backs to do the job.
Connolly has eschewed the selection policy of previous coach Jones by bulking up the forward pack, choosing big, mobile back-rowers to compete at the breakdown, while banking on respected locks Dan Vickerman and Nathan Sharpe to win their share of lineout ball.
But it has been far from a smooth buildup to the World Cup.
The Wallabies' coach even had to go to the length of denying reports of internal rifts, ego conflicts and dwindling Australian Rugby Union revenues.
"It's time to set the record straight - there's no crisis in Camp Wallaby," Connolly wrote in a newspaper column.
"While we count down the days to France, unfortunately the focus in the media is again on off-field issues," he said.
"For the record, I want to make it clear I get on well with (ARU chief executive) John O'Neill, while (backs coach) Scott Johnson and I are very good friends."
"I can't emphasise enough that the players, the staff and the coach of the Wallabies are united."
The Wallabies have an impressive record at the World Cup. They have won two of their three finals in 1991 and 1999, and are overall winners of 24 of their 29 games.
Before their 2003 final loss to England in Sydney they had strung together 12 consecutive wins over two campaigns.
If reputations count for anything, the Wallabies will be tough to beat again in France.
COACH
John Connolly
Connolly took over in the rubble of predecessor Eddie Jones' eight defeats in nine Tests in 2005. He has a 60 per cent success rate with the Australians - 12 wins and one draw in 20 internationals since June last year.
The widely-travelled Connolly, who has had coaching stints with Queensland Reds, Stade Francais, Bath and Swansea, will step down after the World Cup.
Known as 'Knuckles,' Connolly employs a conservative forwards-orientated game plan, with little flair, but the Wallabies enjoyed a stronger 2007 international season with five wins and losses in South Africa and New Zealand.
He likes to delegate the coaching duties and relies on the support of forwards' coach Michael Foley, backs coach Scott Johnson and defensive technician John Muggleton.
KEY PLAYER
Stephen Larkham, fly-half
Larkham is so crucial to Australia's chances at the World Cup that he is likely to be placed in cotton-wool and miss some of the Wallabies' pool games to ensure he is leading the attack in the sudden-death phase.
The 33-year-old fly-half with 101 Tests is in his final international season and looking to bow out with long-time scrum-half partner George Gregan as a winner.
Larkham's ability to carry the ball to the line and put the defence in two minds makes him a deceptive playmaker to counter, but it also puts him at threat with injuries, which have blighted much of his glorious career.
Not a natural kicker, Larkham is more a classic ball-running, passing No.10, although it was his drop goal that got the Wallabies into the 1999 final at the expense of South Africa.
- AFP
