Bath have only three guaranteed games left to them this season - a maximum of five if things go well - so if Stuart Lancaster and the England hierarchy are remotely serious about drafting the cross-code convert Sam Burgess into their World Cup training squad, they will make the call on the basis of guesswork rather than evidence.
Indeed, it will be the rugby equivalent of a pinsticker's choice on Grand National day.
Burgess, who has yet to set the River Avon ablaze with his footballing brilliance, starts tonight's important Premiership game with London Irish at the Recreation Ground on the blind-side flank - the position most union aficionados felt would suit him best when he arrived from rugby league last autumn. Yet it is not the role Lancaster would prefer to see him perform, given that the principal red-rose selection issue is to be found at inside centre. If Bath appear to have bowed to the inevitable, England remain in denial.
It will be fascinating to see how the Yorkshireman stacks up against Luke Narraway, a gifted back-row forward who showed signs of being the real deal at Test level during the early years of Martin Johnson's spell as England manager.
With Kyle Eastmond fit to resume in midfield, Bath are fully armed outside the scrum: Anthony Watson at full-back, Semesa Rokoduguni and Matt Banahan on the wings, Jonathan Joseph at No 13, George Ford at No 10 - it was precisely this combination that made the West Countrymen such a compelling spectacle before Christmas. Despite the resourcefulness of their performances in recent weeks, London Irish will do well to hold their hosts, who need a bonus-point victory to maximise their chances of a home semi-final next month.
