For the next 15 weeks, the All Black coaching trio will travel the country and pore over videos as they try to determine the make-up of their first squad of the year. Gregor Paul suggests 10 things they will be looking for.
1. Kick and catch wings
There is great hope we are going to see more attacking rugby this season as a result of the tougher rulings around the tackled ball area and scrum engagement. The purpose of these stricter interpretations is to lift body positions at the cleanout and increase the space and time across the field to give sides in possession the confidence to attack.
It will take time for that confidence to be built and, even when it is, there is still going to be ample kicking.
Currently the All Blacks have Cory Jane, Zac Guildford and Ben Smith who are genuine footballers and comfortable under the high ball. Sitiveni Sivivatu, while he's a must-pick, is erratic in this department, as are Joe Rockocoko, Lelia Masaga and Hosea Gear.
New Zealand rugby was exposed last year as a consequence of its preponderance of high-impact, explosive wings who are all about power with the ball in hand.
The game has changed and, with it, the skill-sets of wings. Rudi Wulf, Jared Payne and Sean Maitland are the men to look out for while there could be some interest in using Israel Dagg more on the wing this year.
2. Locks
Ali Williams is hobbling about after surgery on his damaged Achilles. Brad Thorn, despite being the most admirable beast of burden, will soon be closer to 40 than 30 and can't guarantee that his enormous V8 engine will still be humming next year.
We don't know whether Chris Jack still has the required edge for test football and Jason Eaton, for all his potential, has never fully regained his dynamism since his awful knee injury in 2007.
There are plenty of contenders on the scene and the selectors will want to see a number of them make progress this year so they can enter 2011 with a pool of trustworthy test performers.
In this group are Isaac Ross, Tom Donnelly, Anthony Boric and Bryn Evans. At least one, preferably two, have to deliver big campaigns. There is a wildcard – Josh Bekhuis at the Highlanders. The 23-year-old Southlander is rugged and mobile, wins lineout ball and commands the air at kick-offs. He's a bit light perhaps to be taking on the Springboks but he's certainly going to be closely monitored.
3. Victor Vito
This is his year. It has to be. The powers of Rodney So'oialo are fading and both the Hurricanes and All Blacks need an abrasive ball-carrying, big-tackling No 8 up their sleeve.
From an All Black perspective, they have Kieran Read, a young man who is maturing into a classic No 8. He's the go-to guy. With his work-rate and excellent decision-making, he gives the All Blacks both brain and brawn.
There needs to be alternative to that portfolio, though. So'oialo is an option but it feels like his role should now be about guiding and nurturing the next generation – namely Vito.
What excites about Vito is his raw power and pace. By the tail end of last year's Super 14, he was showing how much damage he could inflict with his lethal acceleration. His accuracy improved and his defence became more certain. He needs to deliver that throughout the entire campaign in 2010 and provide the All Blacks with a bruising presence.
4. A back-up Dan and back-up Richie
It's the same-old, same-old on this one. There is still a lack of conviction about the potential understudies at both No 10 and No 7.
Chiefs openside Tanerau Latimer emerged last year but there are still areas of his game in need of improvement.
It's unlikely the All Black selectors are entirely sold on him and will need to see something more from Latimer to be reassured.
Those doubts will keep them looking elsewhere for a quality openside who can master the new law interpretations. Serge Lilo at the Blues is an intriguing prospect, with several good judges believing he's a quality operator who hasn't had a fair go so far in his career.
It's no different at first five, where Mike Delany made strides last year but there is no certainty he'll enjoy much game time with the Chiefs in his preferred berth. Aaron Cruden has huge support but maybe not enough from coach Colin Cooper to start each week.
It's 19 months to the World Cup, which means time is running out for this problem to be solved. The selectors will want to be certain on who their best option is by the end of the year and will want to see someone emerge strongly in the next 15 weeks.
5. Strategic trends
The All Black coaches were slow to assess the impact of the ELVs when they were trialled in 2008. They admitted that after the hammering in Sydney that year. They were slow last year to see how the game had evolved into a kickfest and didn't pick the right players until the tail end of the Tri Nations and end-of-year tour.
There will be tactical evolution again this year as teams learn to deal with the tougher rulings. Patterns will evolve as to the best times to counter attack and if scrums become cleaner then they should be a better platform to launch back moves.
The coaches need to assess the fine detail and determine how best support runners can attack the tackled ball.
Rather than simply replicate what has worked in Super 14, they need to adapt and evolve it and also need to be forming their own ideas on how to break defences.
6. Rotation
Late last year, All Black coach Graham Henry spoke of his desire to see his leading players carefully managed through the Super 14. His ideal scenario would be for some players to be given a week off outside the bye, maybe even two (although not consecutive) when they are allowed to escape the rugby environment entirely. Super 14 coaches see things differently. They want their best players week after week, so there is a perennial source of tension there.
Ultimately Henry is not bothered on the mechanics as long as he gets the right outcome – which is players in good physical and mental nick by the end of the competition. He'll be around the franchises keeping tabs on how his best assets are travelling and urging coaches to take seriously the issue of welfare.
7. Neemia Tialata's fitness
The big Hurricanes prop is a critical part of the All Black picture right now. Carl Hayman is expected home later this year and Owen Franks is developing. But for now, Tialata is the first-choice tighthead and scrums are going to be restored to true contests. At least that's the theory. Referees will be controlling the engagement progress as all reviews last year concluded that scrums were "just awful". The IRB wants them fixed and the remedy is to make sure the sequence of crouch, touch, pause, engage is adhered to.
If the scrums are set properly, then it comes down to a technical battle. We have to have faith referees will do what they say they are going to do and that scrums will be contested in a way they weren't last year.
The All Blacks will need an abrasive, durable, technically proficient No 3. That could be Tialata, but he has to stay on top of his conditioning, keep his weight in check and maintain the determination and discipline he displayed in the latter half of last year.
8. Improved kicking
There is no doubt New Zealand rugby has more gifted runners than both South Africa and Australia. There are no shortage of backs who can cause damage with the ball in hand.
But there are not enough who are also in possession of quality kicking games. It's a vital skill yet it's typical for most New Zealand franchise backlines to stack up with just one recognised kicker.
The Blues started their campaign with Stephen Brett as their only option. The Hurricanes had Willie Ripia and Piri Weepu but the way Kiwi teams want to play – fast and open – they rarely encourage halfbacks to use their boot to dictate the flow of the game.
The All Blacks want to break out of this mindset that the first five is the only player on the field who needs to be able to kick tactically. The likes of Ryan Crotty, Jayden Hayward, Robbie Fruean and Benson Stanley all have potential to go further but all lack kicking skills.
9. A wild card
The time is now for aspiring All Blacks. Those not yet capped or close to it have, really, this campaign to stake a claim. It will be too late next year – the selectors will be reluctant to throw in players they don't know or who are untried in a World Cup year.
They have an extended squad in mind right now – those who went away on tour last year (and those such as Keven Mealamu, Ali Williams and Richard Kahui who would have gone but for injury), plus a handful of players such as Ross, Weepu, Evans, George Whitlelock, Gear, Rokocoko and Jamie Mackintosh who have been in and around the team in recent seasons and also the likes of Hayman and Aaron Mauger who are both looking seriously at coming home.
This wider group has the front running but that's not to say there's no room for someone to force their way in.
A stunning season will see to that and the selectors would relish the arrival of an unknown quantity.
10. Aerial accuracy
New Zealand teams have not been great at taking control of the ball in the air in recent seasons. Lineouts are mostly OK at Super 14 level but some of the work around kick receipts has been sloppy. A lot of the work under the high ball has also been poor and it seems the Australians and South Africans are more technically competent and confident when it comes to securing the ball when players are jumping. It's a critical skill and one that can cost a side dearly if their players are not up to it. Dropped balls from restarts and spilled high kicks are killers.
