Rugby: The good oil with 14 months to go

South Africa
Ranking 2

Everything will become clear in the next two weeks but there is no reason to believe the South Africans have drifted from the heights reached last year.

They employ a simple game plan that begins with their set-piece excellence and physicality at the tackled ball.

They take few risks, preferring to pressure opponents into mistakes.

It would be a surprise if they deviated too far from their successful kick and chase formula, although it is expected they will be more willing to use their backs when they feel it is on.

They have no obvious weaknesses and returning John Smit to hooker will only strengthen their scrum.

Really, the hope to which everyone clings is that Smit,Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Schalk Burger and a few other senior players fall into a steep decline in the next 12 months - that physically they start packing
it in and mentally, they lose their desire.

But even if the edge does come off some of their senior performers, they have shown a remarkable ability to blood new players.

Depth is not a problem for the Boks. If Matfield starts to fade, Andries
Bekker awaits. If Pierre Spies can't find his form, there is Ryan Kankowski and a legion of agile, footballing backs who can do the lot and play across the field.

Whether they have more to offer is debatable - but they do have the potential to hold their form through to the World Cup and arrive as the overwhelming favourites.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Beat Italy 55-11
Beat Italy 29-13
Beat France 42-17
Beat Wales 34-31
Lost to Ireland 15-10

Australia
Ranking 3

There is a growing school of believers who see the Wallabies as the team to beat at the next World Cup.

If they are, then they are cleverly hiding their calibre and leaving their run late.

Coach Robbie Deans is the master at getting his teams to peak at the right time.

The Wallabies also have the best depth and mix of backline talent in world rugby and the brilliant Will Genia at halfback.

It's possible that Quade Cooper might actually be a bit of a flake but no matter, Berrick Barnes or Matt Giteau can step in if that proves the case.

But it's the old story - they don't have a scary tight five and even when Benn Robinson and Ben Alexander return, their scrum will still
have much to do just to hold its own.

In almost every other sport, Australians defy the odds, covering any shortfall in ability with an unbreakable belief they will win.

That mental strength has drifted out of Australian rugby - evidenced by the fact they haven't won the Tri Nations since 2002, a Super rugby title since 2004 and it is now seven tests since they beat the All Blacks.

They have to manage at least one win against the All Blacks this year or they will be stuffed psychologically.

They have to tighten their scrum, improve their collision work and end the season with results in which they can take more pride.

Since Deans took over, the Wallabies have won only 15 of their 28 tests - including losses by 39-10 and 33-6 to the All Blacks, 53-8 to the Boks, and defeats to Scotland, England and Wales and a draw with Ireland.

Maybe it's all part of their masterplan. Or maybe they just aren't that good.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Lost to England 21-20
Beat England 27-13
Beat Fiji 49-3
Beat Wales 33-12
Lost to Scotland 9-8

France
Ranking 4

It's best to ignore the June tests as a means of evaluating the French.

The players gave the overwhelming impression they would rather have been
anywhere other than on tour.

The French have always done things their way. There is no point trying to draw any theories about their lack of appetite in June alluding to a mental frailty that could be exposed next year.

Come next year, they will be a different proposition. Coach Marc Lievremont has brought flair and expression back to the team without compromising their forward grunt.

When they played South Africa last November, they were reminiscent of the best French sides of the 1980s and 1990s. The forwards battered the Boks into submission.

They even managed to clean out Victor Matfield a few times in the lineout and negate his influence.

The backs didn't cut loose but they did run straight and hard and offload to good effect around the ruck. They kick-chased as well as the South Africans.

That style was largely continued into the Six Nations, where they sliced up Scotland, Italy, Ireland and Wales before strangely struggling against England.

Former Wallaby coach Eddie Jones has already said he believes the French could win the World Cup next year, as they have the players and now the coach with the right game plan.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Lost to Argentina 41-13
Beat Argentina A 37-14
Lost to South Africa 42-17
Beat England 12-10
Beat Italy 46-20

Ireland
Ranking 5

Since winning the Grand Slam in 2009, the most optimistic assessment of Ireland is that they have stagnated. It's probably more realistic to say they have regressed.

They remain capable, possibly even dangerous at times, as Brian O'Driscoll, while not the player he once was, remains a force.

In Johnny Sexton, they have a more balanced first five who, unlike Ronan O'Gara, doesn't appear to melt in the face of decent opposition.

As they showed in New Plymouth, they have pace and ability in their back three, where Andrew Trimble, Luke Fitzgerald and Rob Kearney can all finish.

Jamie Heaslip, when he is not having brain explosions, is a decent No 8 who can bash them over the gain line and in Tony Buckley, they have
found a prop who can cause a bit of damage when he's got his hands on the ball.

But, collectively, the pack has lost sting since the tail end of 2008 when they pushed the All Blacks hard at Croke Park. They don't have a fearsome scrum and they lacked presence at the tackled ball both during the Six Nations and out here.

In 2008 and 2009, they held genuine hope they could beat Southern Hemisphere sides.

Now they are playing to keep it close.

The other factor they will have to battle is their historic inability to deliver at World Cups.

A bit like the All Blacks, the Irish are classic underachievers at the big event.

They went to the 2007 tournament on the back of a solid Six Nations, yet bombed out at the pool stages, having been torn apart by Argentina and France.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Lost to Australia 22-15
Lost to Maori 31-28
Lost to New Zealand 66-28
Lost to Scotland 23-20
Beat Wales 27-12

England
Ranking 6

England remain an enigma and an enormous dormant threat. They have shown the folly of underestimating them.

Remember in 2007 how bad they were in the preceding two seasons? They chaotically bumbled through the pool round, taking a ferocious hiding from South Africa, only to stun everyone and reach the final.

They have been fairly awful again for the last three years, yet there were signs against Australia last month that they might only be a few players away from being a genuine contender.

They can scrummage. No question.

They have a pack that is physical both at set-piece and in the loose, where they clear out bodies and win the critical metres over the ball.

They need to commit to Johnny Wilkinson and build their game around his
tactical kicking while encouraging him to be more aware and responsive to ball-in hand opportunities.

What was evident in the second test against Australia is that England have more to them than is realised. Ben Foden was a revelation at fullback - brave under the high ball and capable of launching effective
counter-attacks.

Chris Ashton and Mark Cueto are quality wings.

England must find a ball-playing centre to work in tandem with a smash-it up second five.

If they can sharpen their handling, play with more pace and pose more of a threat in wider areas, England will be a side to avoid.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Lost to Maori 35-28
Beat Australia 21-20
Beat Australian Barbarians 15-9
Lost to Australia 27-17
Drew with Australian Barbarians 28-28

Scotland
Ranking 7

While they won't have the top five nations quaking, Scotland are most definitely a side on the rise.

The arrival of Andy Robinson as coach has sharpened their vision, simplified their thinking and brought them results.

They famously beat Australia in November, have beaten Ireland away and just last month won their series in Argentina 2-0, the first
international side to win a test in Tucuman.

Given how easily the same Pumas side destroyed the French a week later, some respect has to be given to the Scots.

Their key strength is the back two rows of their scrum- particularly the loose trio of Kelly Brown, John Barclay and Johnnie Beattie, collectively known as the Killer Bs.

They are as good as any combination in the world game, with the current rule interpretations suiting their pace, explosive power and ball carrying.

There is depth at lock where Nathan Hines, Al Kellock and Jim Hamilton are big, aggressive ball winners.

Robinson has built a pack that can stand up to anyone and has a range of halfbacks - Mike Blair, Chris Cusiter and Rory Lawson - all of whom can direct the game plan.

The weakness remains the inability to score tries, largely due to the over-reliance on the boot of Dan Parks.

While he's improved, he is essentially a Jannie de Beer type who simply plugs the corners and drops goals.

The front row is also lacking grunt and is ripe to be exposed by the best scrummaging sides.

But the Scots are an improving team and are slowly building more parts to their game. In another year, they could be a team to cause a few surprises.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Beat Argentina 13-9
Beat Argentina 24-16
Beat Ireland 23-20
Drew with England 15-15
Lost to Italy 16-12

Argentina
Ranking 8

It remains difficult getting a handle on Argentina.

They have perennial problems accessing their best players and only sporadically manage to field what they would consider their strongest XV.

Despite their difficulties, it would be a push to suggest they have advanced since 2007 where they finished third at the World Cup.

They desperately miss the organisational skills and leadership of Agustin Pichot.

Without Juan Martin Hernandez - who seems permanently injured - they lack spark and imagination.

Still, they are difficult enough to beat, as France discovered. There is any number of big, brutal forwards who can do hard yards.

They can scrummage all day and the lineout doesn't give much away.

But putting a total performance together is often beyond them. They struggle for preparation time and their style makes them vulnerable to any opponent who can contain them up front and put some pace into the game.

That's what Scotland did.

They pushed the ball two passes past the breakdown and Argentina couldn't get enough numbers to be a nuisance and their defence leaked when asked to tackle runners that bit wider out.

It's total guesswork trying to determine whether they can advance in the next 12 months but historically the World Cup brings the best out of them.

It is the only time they have all their players together for any period and the only time they enjoy a sustained run of quality opponents.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Beat France 42-13
Lost to Scotland 13-9
Lost to Scotland 24-16
Beat Scotland 9-6
Lost to Wales 33-16

Wales
Ranking 9

The Welsh have enjoyed a period of consistency all too rare in their recent history.

Since 2005, they have fixed on a style similar to the All Blacks where they try to offload out of the tackle, play with tempo and back their loose trio to recycle enough possession to score tries.

Since the arrival of Warren Gatland at the end of 2007, they have added his trademark rush defence to their mix.

They are a side with significant potential and one that has to be taken seriously.

Even in going down 42-9 in Dunedin, the Welsh still had to be clubbed into submission.

There are ball players across the team and if they can keep Mike Phillips, Ryan Jones, Lee Byrne, Stephen Jones and Jamie Roberts fit, they will come to the World Cup with the goal of making the semifinals.

But like the Irish, they need to find belief from somewhere; they have to go beyond going close.

In 2009, they reached the last 10 minutes of their clash with the All Blacks 19-12 down.

They had a chance to push for the draw, even win it. But when the pressure came on, they couldn't execute; couldn't find a way through the defence.

That remains their biggest problem. Against the big boys, they can't maintain their composure, belief and execution through to the final whistle.

There is now growing doubt as to whether they will ever find the requisite belief.

They have never taken the learnings from one close loss to the All Blacks and practically applied them the next time the two teams have met.

LAST FIVE RESULTS
Lost to New Zealand 29-10
Lost to New Zealand 42-9
Lost to South Africa 34-31
Beat Italy 33-10
Lost to Ireland 27-12