KEY POINTS:
PARIS - Lethal attack, staunch defence, set-piece mastery, efficient support play, a metronomic goal kicker, strength in depth and adaptability, flair, playing the referee, capitalising on the opponents' mistakes, and a healthy slice of luck.
All are components that will decide which team wins the rugby union World Cup that kicks off in France on September 7.
A modern-day game of rugby union, played at a furious pace and with an ever-increasing physical intensity, is a complex sport to analyse, with enough variables on the day to cast doubts over even the surest bet.
New Zealand, winners of the inaugural World Cup in 1987, are favourites to win the 20-team tournament this time around.
They were also favourites in at least two World Cups since they won the Webb Ellis trophy, but were undone by a combination of factors.
The All Blacks will certainly arrive in France with a balanced mix between speed, creativity and innovation, and physical hardness and raw aggression, alongside a mastery of both the basics and technical skills.
In outside-half Dan Carter and openside flanker Richie McCaw, they possess two of the world's finest players, game-breakers in their own right.
But the beauty of rugby is that they are reliant on their team-mates if they are to reproduce the goods on rugby union's ultimate world stage.
Set-piece dominance, or at least enough prowess in the scrum and line-out to achieve parity or more against the opposition, is essential for any side looking to win Test matches.
It grants a team a steady stream of possession, and on a basic level allows the playmakers to dictate a percentage game: kicking for territory, pinning the opposition back in their half, and then unleashing the backline.
England coach Brian Ashton, who saw his front-five struggle in a 22-9 loss to France last weekend, was adamant that a steady forward base was the way forward.
"We've got to have a forward foundation to start with. I've never wavered from that all the way through my coaching career," he said.
"At international level without that you're playing on the back foot all the time. You might get away with it against some sides but against most teams you'll get beaten."
Ashton added, however, that while a big pack of forwards who will dominate possession and territory is needed, a team must also be able to up the "tempo and dynamism of the game" as well as offer "efficient execution when you get the opportunities and a strong defence".
The player who controls the tempo of a game is undoubtedly the outside-half.
"Think of them as the generals; running the game, bossing the forwards while keeping the depth of the backs," former Wales and British Lions stand-off Jonathan Davies wrote on the BBC website.
"There are all different types of outside-halves in world rugby, but it's no coincidence the best teams in the world have the best number 10s in the world.
"You've only got to look at New Zealand's Daniel Carter," he said.
One of Davies's predecessors in the Wales and Lions shirt, Barry John, has highlighted the performance of rising Welsh starlet James Hook as integral to that of the Wales team.
"I can't over-emphasise just how important James Hook is to this Wales team as his tactical positioning, kicking and passing game is that of a fly-half mature beyond his years," John said.
Another key position on the pitch is openside flanker whose role, according to All Black legend Zinzan Brooke, "is turning rucks and mauls into continuity play", a crucial element of a close-fought game.
"Their job is to then get the ball-carrier into a body wrap, pull him to the ground, get up in one movement and rip the ball," Brooke told the BBC.
"Often the tackler will deliberately wrap up his opponent, knowing that eight times out of 10 the ball-carrier will be penalised for holding onto the ball.
"Australia's George Smith and Phil Waugh are other stand-out guys but All Black captain Richie McCaw has taken the game to a new dimension... there's a real art to modern open-side play and McCaw has mastered it."
Another indispensable factor for a Test match-winning team is a kicker who can be trusted to nail 70 per cent or more of his kicks at goal. Keep kicking the penalties in a close match
And who could rule out the worth of a proficient drop-goal kicker, as demonstrated by England's Jonny Wilkinson when he stroked over the injury-time winner four years ago.
"If you don't get the basics in place it all gets lost inside," was Wilkinson's reaction to his team's record-breaking 43-13 defeat by Ireland in last season's Six Nations.
Twenty-three nations have taken part in the Rugby World Cup so far, and out of the five tournaments that have been held, all but one have been won by a southern hemisphere nation.
After the All Blacks in 1987, Australia won in 1991, South Africa in 1995 and then Australia again in 1999. The southern hemisphere dominance was broken at in 2003 when England beat Australia in the final.
While it is all very well to make predictions of rugby matches, and most will be true to form in the pool stages, the quarter-final match-ups on are sure to offer up a string of curveballs.
A slice of luck with one bounce of the spheroid-shaped ball, changeable weather, and the ability of professional sportsmen to cope with pressure and reproduce basic skills competently, will all to come into play as the tournament unfolds.
- AFP
