Rugby: Northerners at long odds for World Cup

Jamie Heaslip can be devastating for Ireland but like most of the northern countries, the consistency for a World Cup win isn't there. Picture / Getty Images

The Northern Hemisphere rugby season can finally be laid to rest. It was reminiscent of one of those visits to an expensive restaurant where your trip is wrapped in hype and anticipation, but you come away disappointed. So what state are the countries in as the World Cup looms?

Ireland

It depends which day and which mood you wish to discuss. Did we see the real Ireland in the demolition job on England which debunked the myth of a likely England Grand Slam at the end of the Six Nations in March?

Commanding up front and at halfback and with Jonny Sexton having nailed down the starting role at No 10, Ireland have a devastating back row where Jamie Heaslip and the rapidly emerging Sean O'Brien have made themselves indispensable.

It's uncertain whether Leinster's success in the Heineken Cup can be translated into the national team. It's true, the Heineken Cup is not international rugby, still less a World Cup. But the dynamism with which Leinster saw off European rugby's best offered significant clues as to the capabilities of these players.

Problem is, they rarely produce such dynamism or clinical performances on a regular basis at test level.

Undeniably, the pool match against Australia will define their World Cup. Win that and optimism and self-belief should soar. Lose it, and another quarter-final exit looms.

But they could go further this time. Clearly, they have the players.

France

Uncertain in their approach, inconsistent in strategy, too often mentally fragile - this, believe it or not, is the nation that has broken New Zealand hearts at most recent World Cups.

Many Kiwis are alarmed at the prospect of another mugging when they meet their old nemesis in a pool match this time. They needn't be. France will come up short at this World Cup.

At club level, they've largely deserted their rich heritage of fast, inventive, attacking rugby. That means scant chance the national team will play that way.

"Les Bleus" have settled for a sort of halfway house; not obsessed with forward power as in the days of Jacques Fouroux but not a patch on the sides coached by Pierre Villepreux and Jean-Claude Skrela in the late 1990s, when they won successive Grand Slams and terrified opponents with their dazzling attacking style.

The players often perform under Marc Lievremont as if they don't know what they should be doing, and still less believe in his plans.

England

England could win the World Cup. But in 2015 when they host it, not this year ...

They'll go into this tournament as Six Nations champions but Ireland revealed how hollow that tag will be. There are many reasons for English optimism in four years' time; mainly the fact that by then, so many of their young players should have matured.

Quality players abound in England but many of them lack experience. Four hard years of top-class rugby could transform them.

The internationals of last autumn revealed the potential and the failings of England. A fast, fluid attacking game plan was too much for Australia, yet the South Africans shut them down totally through a superior exhibition of forward might. England had no answer to that.

That they are a work in progress, far from the finished product, was proven by the narrow eight and six point victories over France and Scotland, respectively. Some old war horses, the likes of Lewis Moody and Mike Tindall, will need replacing after the Cup and better players are much needed at centre and No 8.

The supreme irony is, England may need to beat only France and Australia to reach a third successive World Cup final.

Wales

Any country that has to dig Gavin Henson out of a tanning salon to fill a key role surely forfeits the right to serious consideration at a World Cup.

Henson chooses his teams and moments to play like a diner, a la carte. He wouldn't figure on most countries' radar - witness England throwing out Danny Cipriani, Australia, Lote Tuqiri and New Zealand, Sione Lauaki.

But there are plenty of other worries within Welsh rugby. The best players are continuing to ignore national coach Warren Gatland's thinly veiled warning that playing outside Wales could imperil chances of representing the national team.

Trouble is, Lee Byrne (bound for Clermont Auvergne), James Hook (heading for Perpignan) and Mike Phillips (probably destined for Bayonne) know they can call Gatland's bluff. 2005 Lions halfback Dwayne Peel has long since done so.

Perhaps strangely, Gatland and Shaun Edwards were given new contracts before this World Cup.

They will have to go some way to justify keeping them.

Scotland

Andy Robinson has done wonders with such a limited player base. The Englishman who wears his heart on his sleeve has been just what Scotland needed - a coach to fire his men with pride. But will it be enough at the World Cup?

Ironically, Scotland's chances were probably enhanced by being paired in the same pool with England. The fiery Scots will be up for that one and on the evidence of their competitiveness in the 22-16 defeat at Twickenham earlier this year, they could threaten an upset.

The Scots have benefited from the experience some of their best players have gleaned in the English Premiership. Guys like Kelly Brown, a winner with Saracens in the championship final, have markedly improved their game. Nathan Hines will again add bulk and plenty of commitment.

Wing Max Evans, joining the exodus and heading for Castres, is a dangerous runner if properly set up. And others, like openside flank John Barclay, have key roles to play.

But you can't be fooled by Scot-land. They lost heavily to France in Paris and Wales in Edinburgh. They got close to Ireland, losing 18-21, but chiefly due to Irish errors and indiscipline, not their own efforts. A win over Italy saved them from outright ownership of the Wooden Spoon.

The All Blacks emphasised with brutal clarity where the Scots are, humiliating them at Murrayfield last November. That was the best yardstick in terms of their true strength and status in a world sense.

Italy

Nick Mallett's coaching tenure of the Azzurri ends after this World Cup. He's being replaced by Jacques Brunel, formerly of Perpignan, and it is not the choice of the Italian players who wanted Mallett to stay.

A first victory over France on the final day of the Six Nations season capped a much improved campaign, disregarding the 59-point collapse at Twickenham. They led Ireland in Rome up to the final moments and should have won. They also had moments against Wales, before losing by eight points.

Sergio Parisse remains a peerless competitor in most Northern Hemisphere company (Ireland's Jamie Heaslip excepted).

And the front row has some scrummagers as wily as a barrowload of monkeys. Their antics were too much for most of the referees in this part of the world.

But Italy are still trying to make cakes with a collection of crumbs.

They lack any depth; indeed, they don't have real first-choice quality in many positions.

* Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media in London.