KEY POINTS:
The nervous starts by Northern Hemisphere teams at the World Cup have confirmed the suspicion that the game has declined in this part of the world.
Excessive coaching, excessive wage packets and excessive hype of young men increasingly unfamiliar with the demands of normal everyday life are among the reasons.
Players accustomed to modest standards in the physically obsessed, kicking-riddled club rugby of Europe have been exposed on the world stage. There are doubts that donning the England jersey, or indeed the French one, now means as much as a Springbok jersey - or better still an All Black one.
The rigid organisation imposed on France by meticulous coach Bernard Laporte sits uneasily on Gallic shoulders. The French are a free-spirited people, maverick and complicated. You can accuse them of much - but never of predictability.
Laporte has defied national characteristics with his methods and the players look lost, bereft of the inspiration and individuality that has traditionally hallmarked French teams.
England's plight is of a different nature. In an unusually forthright view, veteran back-row forward Lawrence Dallaglio confessed that Brian Ashton's team are now at the stage where it ought to have been three years ago - a few senior generals guiding the young foot soldiers.
That's the fault of years of muddle and mismanagement by the Rugby Football Union. Their judgment in retaining the coaching staff from 1999 to 2003 and then, worse, jettisoning them late in the four-year cycle between World Cups, invited the chaos in which England find themselves.
The culprits are to be found hiding back at England headquarters, Twickenham, not on the training fields of France.
England cannot play at the pace demanded by the modern game and they are not as physically imposing as they like to believe, a point the South Africans should emphasise in Paris on Saturday.
Jake White's four-year obsession with England is not merited. For all his protestations that the holders will uncork a world-class performance at the expense of the Springboks, the reality is that England don't have it in them.
White has continually donned earmuffs and dark glasses whenever the subject has turned to England. But you should play what you see, not what the mind fantasises. If the Boks don't beat this shambles of a team by a clear 15-20 points they're not the side I believe them to be.
Ireland, to borrow Winston Churchill's World War II description of Russia, are a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Capable of supreme excellence and gross mediocrity almost at the same moment, they frustrate their many fans by their continued near misses.
It could be a similar story this time for either they or France, it now seems, will fail to qualify for the quarter-finals.
The zenith of Scotland's ambitions in this tournament, to beat Italy and finish runners-up in their pool, reveal their declined status. Wales, similarly, are not serious contenders, and Italy's limitations were brutally exposed by the All Blacks.
This grim malaise among the Northern Hemisphere teams has been masked by the huge funds pouring into the game in this part of the world, chiefly from two sources - TV and the corporate market. But neither has rugby in its roots. Each is an ephemeral visitor likely to move on when the party appears over. For the moment, the delusion continues: season ticket sales for the English Premiership clubs are again up, TV interest grows.
But no one is asking: "What are we seeing, where is the quality"? The answer is damning. The event has overtaken the product. So it's no wonder so flawed a system is producing players of inferior quality.
The Southern Hemisphere should dominate this lopsided World Cup. I believe a New Zealand v South Africa final will ensue. But maybe not even that grim state of affairs for the Northern Hemisphere nations will induce change. When finance dictates all, the dawn of realisation can be endlessly postponed.
We should admire the qualities of this New Zealand side. They, at least, are playing a game true to the traditions of this splendid sport.
* Peter Bills is chief rugby correspondent for Independent News & Media in London
