Rugby: Crunch time looming

Hawke's Bay's Israel Dagg is wanted by the Highlanders and Crusaders. Photo / Getty Images

A number of young men have some big decisions to make about their rugby futures in the next few weeks.

Tamati Ellison, Aaron Cruden, Israel Dagg, Zac Guildford, Colin Slade and Stephen Brett have realistic ambitions to be regular All Blacks by 2011.

They are on the rise; players who have shown plenty already. What they need in 2010 is big Super 14 campaigns. The All Black coaches will soon identify a wider group whose progress they will follow and aid next year to deepen the talent pool ahead of the World Cup.

By the end of next year, the selectors will be starting to whittle down that group, with a view to having firm ideas about who is test quality and who is not for what is a potential Grand Slam tour in November.

The door won't be closed but it will be a hard slog for anyone who misses that tour to force their way into the World Cup squad of 30.

Next year is the time for those on the periphery to stake their claim; to play their best football and put the pressure on the selectors. But that's not such a simple business.

Ellison can't be sure how much game time he'll win at the Hurricanes, despite having forced his way into the All Black squad this year. He's covering for the injured Richard Kahui and would maybe have made his debut last night had it not been for injury.

But is he a centre? If he is, he'll have to force his way past Conrad Smith to play there for the Hurricanes during Super 14.

Arguably, Ellison's best position is fullback but that puts him in direct competition with Cory Jane. To win the No 12 jersey, he'd have to outplay Ma'a Nonu.

Ellison's predicament is that his attraction is his utility value, which means he's never sure where he fits in. He started 12 games this season for the Hurricanes, operating at fullback, wing and second five.

One argument says he should stay where he is. He won an All Black call-up jumping from jersey to jersey.

Another says he should take the offer from Otago - join the Highlanders and be guaranteed game-time; a full season at centre. The problem is the Highlanders are likely to struggle for results.

Is it better to be a regular member of an average side like the Highlanders or a utility option at the higher achieving Hurricanes, never sure if he'll be picked each week?

Complicating the picture further is the likelihood of Hurricanes team-mate Zac Guildford moving to the Crusaders.

If Guildford moves, the Hurricanes will have less congestion in their back three, leaving Ellison, David Smith, Hosea Gear and Jane as the frontline options.

There is also a question mark over Smith, as his recent conviction for drink driving puts his New Zealand work permit in doubt.

This is the time when the best players really need advice and guidance from the franchise coaches and their agents. And what about the All Black coaches? Should they be offering advice on where the likes of Ellison should play next season?

"I think market forces should, and will, sort this out," says backs coach Wayne Smith.

"As coaches, we let them know where they stand; areas they need to develop; areas where we see their strengths. We are very involved during the competition.

"But if agents ring up and ask where I think someone should play, I say the same thing - the players have to make a good decision for themselves.

"When players are being targeted, we get a feel for how much they back themselves, of how they see themselves. Are they prepared to stay to be No 1 in their position?

"The thing is they have to be good enough for their franchise if they are going to be good enough for us.

"We don't need to be undermining the process and it's important to let the players make a good decision."

Dagg, like Ellison, has an equally tough choice to make. The 21-year-old fullback has been to Christchurch to see the Crusaders set-up and is wanted by the franchise.

It would be on a loan-back deal, where he could continue playing for Hawke's Bay. The Crusaders have lost Leon MacDonald and want a replacement. Dagg is one of the country's most promising talents and would fit nicely - except he has to wonder how much gametime he'll see.

With Dan Carter back, Colin Slade is going to have to put on hold his aspiration to play first five. As he's shown during this year's provincial championship, he's a quality fullback, good enough to win an All Black wider squad call-up. He's also able to play on the wing, so how does that affect Dagg?

Will he play much at the Crusaders? Or would he be there to sit on the bench and suck up all he can from the tournament's most successful franchise?

Against that, he knows where he fits in with the Highlanders - he's their No 1 fullback.

The clock is ticking and Dagg is feeling like a man under seige.

"Our coach is with the Highlanders and he's pushing me to go back down there, too," Dagg said after the Magpies lost to Waikato last week.

"I've got a big choice between going down there and playing with a lot of stars [at the Crusaders] and learning from them, or I go to the Highlanders and have some good game time.

"It's a pretty tough decision," said Dagg, "but I have to make it soon because it's getting a bit annoying."

He's not the only one feeling the pressure.

This is a complex jigsaw. If Dagg and Guildford shift to the Crusaders, what does that mean for Slade and Brett?

Presumably, not too much for Slade. Worst case for him is that he spends more time on the wing - not such a bad thing if he accepts that his best position longer term is fullback.

He would probably start ahead of Dagg as fullback, though, meaning the threat to him is minimal. But it's a different story for Brett.

Carter blocks him at 10. Ryan Crotty blocks him at 12. Slade and/or Dagg at fullback.

So what does he do? The Blues would love him but they are chasing Cruden.

The Hurricanes are also keen to keep Cruden in their protected 24 but need him to either re-sign with Manawatu or another province aligned with the franchise.

For Brett, there is no argument to be made that he would be better off staying with the Crusaders. If he's going to advance his cause, he has to play.

The importance of game time can't be overlooked.

Hawke's Bay coach Peter Russell, who doubles as the Highlanders backs coach, said as much last week when he talked about the predicament facing Dagg and Guildford.

"I keep telling them to put their names in the 22 for each of the franchises and see where they fit, what's the depth in the franchise and are they going to play week in week out as you did for the Highlanders.

"If they're on stage week in week out, they'll get better and better and learn their trade well. It's not's about the coin. The money will come."

Wayne Smith makes a valid point - what these young men decide to do will be a major clue as to their mindset, their self-confidence and their ambition.

There is also a need for them to act quickly and decisively, as Dagg made the most valid point of all last week.

Clearly vexed by his lacklustre performance, he said: "The most important thing is to do it on the pitch.

"The best way to take care of everything is to keep performing."