Rugby: 2011 Cup beckons for young stars

Aaron Cruden was named the IRB junior of the year. Photo / Getty Images

Opportunity knocks for the stars of New Zealand's world champion under-20 rugby side, but who knows how loud.

Zac Guildford, whose tournament ended tragically when his father died while watching the final against England in Tokyo, is already a Super 14 player. Guildford has a fleet foot in the door, but others will have to wait.

Which under-20 players will make it to the top? Will any become A-grade All Black stars and perhaps feature at the 2011 World Cup? On the other side of the coin, will the junior world title forever be the highlight in other careers? For now, most will sink back into the rugby undergrowth.

The trailblazer is Guildford, who last year became the youngest Hurricane and was the only remaining member of last year's world champion under-20 side.

The super quick Guildford is, to the rugby public, the best known of the under-20 players after two seasons with the Hurricanes. He's already experienced the ups and downs of the professional game, fighting for a wing spot against Hosea Gear, David Smith, Tamati Ellison and co.

"It's where to from here and certain boys have big futures," said under-20s coach Dave Rennie, who also guided the New Zealand team to the inaugural world junior title last season. "It's about working hard and taking your opportunities.

"The backs tend to come through a bit quicker ... Winston Stanley and Zac Guildford have played Super 14, there's a lot of talk about Aaron Cruden and Robbie Robinson ..."

Rennie believes a few might even figure in the All Blacks' 2011 World Cup plans, which isn't so far fetched when you consider the state of the current test side.

"It's still a couple of years away so there is time," said Rennie.

"If they can get to play in the Super 14 next year, who knows what can happen. For some there is also the challenge of finding what position suits them best. There are good boys among them, as we had last year."

Junior success does not guarantee senior stardom, but the New Zealand rugby system is a fairly well worn track and it tends to look after its own.

A quick look at the 2003 under-21 side that won the world title in England shows a significant success rate.

Of the 26-man squad, nine have made the All Blacks. Many others have had solid professional or NPC success. A couple sunk without trace. But in contrast, the under-19 team from that year contains a cluster of players who are far less recognisable six years on.

A telling story from 2003 is that of Ben Atiga, the IRB junior of the year who was called up as an All Black replacement at the World Cup that season. Atiga hasn't got close to national selection since, and his career has crawled along.

Rennie was reluctant to pick out under-20 players for special attention, but did run a friendly rule over a few obvious standouts. From this year's batch, Guildford (Hawkes Bay), Stanley (Auckland), Cruden (Manawatu) and Robinson (Southland) have been tagged as among the most likely to make quick impacts.

Stanley had a handful of games for the Blues early this season but, like Guildford, was starved of opportunities later on. He starred at centre for the under-20s with his distribution, running and defence. His problem will be finding a spot at the Blues and, like Isaia Toeava, utility could become his middle name.

The Blues have Luke McAlister and Daniel Bowden returning, Toeava is apparently a regular test centre, plus brother Benson Stanley is also in the mix. There are All Blacks to burn for the wings. Winston Stanley should crack the Auckland lineup, but might have his Super 14 work cut out for now.

Robinson, a Southland NPC squad member and former nationals secondary schools captain, was switched from first five-eighths to fullback for the world tournament. He was one of the outstanding successes with his excellent defence, kicking off both feet, and broken field running. Three particular try-saving tackles by the fullback are stuck firmly in Rennie's memory.

Rennie said: "He's been moved around positions a bit but I think he probably now realises he has the skills to be an outstanding fullback."

Cruden, the under-20 captain, has shown glimpses of his great promise for NPC side Manawatu, where Rennie is also the coach. Cruden was named the IRB junior of the year.

Rennie said: "I think his leadership in Japan was his most outstanding attribute. He really led from the front, and was quite demanding of the team. I don't want to rush the kid but of all the young No10s I've worked with over the years, he is the most talented with the most potential. He is very clever, very strong, with a great rugby nous. He understands the game very well.

"He has a rare ability to look forward. A lot of our 10s look sideways and don't always see where the space is. If people hold off him, he's good enough to make a break, or he can offload to space around him."

Among the forwards, flankers Bernie Hall and Brendon O'Connor, lock Alex Ryan and hooker Brayden Mitchell are early tips to make the grade. Rennie used two specialist opensides in Hall and O'Connor, the latter taking the blindside role. The pair are in the Crusaders' system - Hall is from Taranaki and O'Connor from Poverty Bay. Ryan and Mitchell are Southlanders.

On the subject of opensides, Luke Braid was the star of last year's team and won the 2008 IRB junior award. Maybe there is a genuine heir to Richie McCaw among this openside trio. Braid's situation shows how tough it can be though - if he remains in Tauranga he is up against new All Black openside Tanerau Latimer at both Bay of Plenty and the Chiefs.

Rennie also has a battle on his hands with Manawatu's place in the NPC first division under threat.

He says the province's academy, which is run by one-test All Black back Jason O'Halloran, would collapse if they were booted out.

Rennie will coach the New Zealand under-20s again next year and a whole new raft of potential stars will fall under his wing. Of this year's world champions, only Manawatu prop Willie Ioane is eligible again.