Q&A: Who’ll get the All Blacks coaching gig - and did Ian Foster get a fair shake?

All Blacks head coach Ian Foster and NZ Rugby CEO Mark Robinson at a press conference to announce Foster's retention in October 2022. Photo / Photosport

Opinions have long been divided on whether Ian Foster is the best choice for All Blacks head coach. Opinions are less divided on how New Zealand Rugby has handled the saga, which took another twist last week when Foster announced he wouldn’t reapply for his job.

As Herald reporter Paul Lewis put it last Wednesday: “Good on [Foster] for doing what New Zealand Rugby didn’t - making a decision.”

Foster had spoken exclusively to the Herald a couple of weeks earlier to argue his case for delaying the recruitment process until after the World Cup. That came after a tortuous, months-long process in which NZR sent mixed signals, refused to provide a timeline, and apparently kept some of the key players (including Foster) in the dark.

Meanwhile, the last time the All Blacks played, they weren’t great.

So who’ll get the coaching gig when NZ Rugby finally makes up its mind? Chief sports writer Liam Napier says it’s a two-horse race (and Herald readers have already placed their bets). He talked about that - and a whole lot of related topics - during a live Q&A with Herald Premium subscribers this morning. Here are the highlights - you can read the full discussion in the comments section below.

Gary C: The success of the All Blacks Coach is the whole 20 support crew and I guess that is where the focus is at the moment for NZR Liam?

Liam N: NZR would definitely be aware that a change of head coach will, in this case, highly likely result in big change with the wider coaching and management.

Darren S: Results measure a coach’s ability to make good decisions, motivate players, and create a winning culture. This ABs team has consistently performed poorly under Foster’s leadership, which suggests that he has not provided the right guidance, support, or strategy to help the players perform at their best. On this point Foster has failed but it could be argued that results should not be the only factor. Factors such as the ability to develop players and their overall impact on the team’s performance should be considered. From my armchair view Foster has not excelled in this area either, therefore I come to the conclusion he has had more than a “fair shake”. By not making the call to dismiss Foster last year, NZR has made life very difficult for themselves. Rugby is a constantly evolving sport and new ideas can help the ABs stay ahead of the competition. Do you believe Razor can bring innovative tactics, game plans and training methods that will give the ABs a competitive advantage?

Liam N: You’re right that Foster’s results and tenure to this point have been underwhelming Darren. The second half of last year suggested improvements were made following two assistant coaching changes, only for the late capitulation at Twickenham to shape the overall season narrative. In terms of Razor, he has proven himself to be an astute motivator with the use of themes, such as Muhammad Ali’s rumble in the jungle, central to his coaching. There’s no doubt he brings a different, innovative style but he’s also not the only option to assume the reins. And from a test rugby perspective, he is unproven.

Peter N: Can there ever be smooth waters in the process of engaging a new head coach with the nature of the RWC cycle, the requirements of Super Rugby, the parochialism and intolerance by followers and the enthusiasm of the media to seek wispy clouds and turn them into storms?

Liam N: No, you’re right, there probably can’t Peter. Dame Patsy Reddy made the point, when confirming the appointment process, that no timing was perfect. While the timing is unsettling for the current coaching crew, many of whom will be out of jobs, leaving it to the World Cup would almost certainly have continued the speculation about the next coach right throughout the tournament. And as you point out, there are many factors - from Super Rugby to assembling the next All Blacks coaching team, not just the head coach - at play.

Ray P: Yes, I think Foster got a fair deal, the reasons are: 1.) He probably should never have been awarded a contract through to the World Cup before the Northern tour last year. 2.) He has had a long time to prove he is the man for the job, he has failed on this count big time. Very nice man, but being a nice man is not what the coach should be appointed on. Results are what counts.

Liam N: It hasn’t been a great tenure to date that’s for sure, Ray. There’s been too many losses, too many unwanted records. Once Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt came on board mid-year year the All Blacks made definite improvements but it should not have taken two-and-a-half years to reach that point. There’s reason to believe the All Blacks will continue those improvements this year but the decision to appoint the next coach pre-World Cup ultimately removes that tournament from the equation.

Bruce G: I think the right decision has eventually been made but the road to that decision has been awful. The board has not covered itself in glory in this and a lot of other issues as well, namely the relationship with Australia and the breaking away from South Africa. To me, they have shown naivety and arrogance in a lot of these areas. Mark Robinson obviously has a lot to learn and I do wonder if he really is the right person for the role. I would like a board and CEO that is proactive and has a real vision for the game. I think the game has underperformed in the professional era and a lot of that is because of NZ Rugby’s obsession with the All Blacks. There has been no energy or thought put into the development of a top-notch competition, though I do think they are heading in the right direction now. To me, the board have a lot to answer for. Hopefully, they have learnt their lessons and things improve.

Liam N: It has certainly been a tumultuous time for NZ Rugby over the last three years. Ultimately I believe they should have made this decision last year. Mark Robinson strongly indicated in December that NZR would appoint the next All Blacks coach pre-World Cup. Four months later, they finally confirmed that was the route they will go down.

John F: NZR knew full well that going early instantly ruled Fozzie out … let’s say he knocked it out of the park with an impressive interview (and Razor and Joseph didn’t) - how could the panel then re-appoint Fozzie now with the very real possibility of ABs exiting the RWC in a QF? His only chance was winning RWC. So if not for his contract ending in December, there would’ve been strong grounds for constructive dismissal. I hope the ABs win, Fozzie gets knighted and they cream it in Japan. But if managed better, NZR could’ve instead offered him a new high-performance/elite pathway/director of rugby gig (which he’d be brilliant at) - giving Razor air cover to concentrate on coaching the team (& not all the off-field demands that are going to crush Razor without a major structural overhaul). Retain Schmidt in a support role will be absolutely crucial for ABs & Razor. Meanwhile, let’s hope all involved put the values & ethos of the AB team first - starting with humility & respect. Like Fozzie always has!!

Liam N: You’re right about the decision to go early effectively ruling Foster out John. Not sure Razor, Jamie or Joe would want anyone over the top of them if they get the job but with a coaching and management cleanout on the cards post-World Cup, big changes and an end of an era looms.

Scott Robertson (L) and Jamie Joseph are the leading contenders for the vacant All Blacks coaching role. Photos / Photosport

John F (replying to Liam’s reply above): Sorry I don’t mean a token ‘Razzie’ style job (interfering with AB coaching). I mean having someone 100% focused on our overall development pathway (men & women) from college, U20, provincial to Super (then 100% up to AB coach/selectors who they select from there). Our struggling U20 pathway AND the increasing over professionalism at college 1stXV level (leaving so many potential late-developer stars behind) needs a massive re-think. Won’t be Fozzie now ... but needs someone like Smithy on the case!

Liam N: Agree John - Smithy would be superb in that style of role.

Mike H: In sport; many decisions or rulings are subjective. The ref pulls the yellow card from his pocket: one side screams red, the other howls not even worthy of a penalty. The selection of players and coaches, and their subsequent support of them; is often based from a territorial, parochial mindset. Completely devoid of rational analysis. But what is not subjective is the poor strategic judgment exhibited by NZR. What is not clear is where the fault lies. Is Mark Robinson as inept and out of his depth as he appears to me to be? Or is he merely a marionette controlled by puppet masters on the board?

Liam N: As with any organisation, the CEO runs the cutter, sets the agenda by providing direction and recommendations, but the board ultimately signs off on all final decisions.

Garry B: I originally supported Robertson, but after his comments a couple of weeks ago I ask the question “who is running NZRU - Robinson or Robertson?” My issue is he should never have made the statement, it shows arrogance. Do you think this will influence the decision? It appears to have muddied the waters.

Liam N: It’s an interesting point Garry. That press conference wasn’t a smart move from Robertson, particularly when you compare it with the way Joseph is handling his approach by making moves behind the scenes and keeping his head down. NZ Rugby weren’t impressed with Robertson’s comments that day so that won’t have helped his case but I don’t see it as a deciding factor in the appointment process.

Moderator: You’ve said the coaching contest is a two-horse race. Do you think Robertson has it sewn up? If so, do you think he already knows that?

Liam N: I’d suggest it remains very open at this point in time.

Moderator: The big crystal ball-gazing one: Can the All Blacks win the World Cup? Who do we least want to face in the quarter-final?

Liam N: It’s shaping as an extremely tough road for the All Blacks to win this World Cup, with the draw stacked against them, but that’s not to say it can’t be achieved. Personally, I believe the All Blacks would be better off facing South Africa than Ireland in a World Cup quarter-final. The All Blacks have a good recent record against the Boks in pivotal tests. And Ireland are the world’s form team.

Moderator: If this was a big corporate, Fozzie would walk away with a six-figure payout. Will he get one, or does his contract simply end?

Liam N: His contract expires after the World Cup so there will be no payout.

Moderator: Where do you think Foster will end up next year?

Liam N: In theory, he could end up anywhere. Japan would be an easy option from a salary and workload perspective, but there’s nothing stopping him joining another international team in some capacity either. His IP, having worked within the All Blacks for 12 years, will be highly valued.

Moderator: Much has been said about how distracting this is in RWC year, but will it actually have that much of an impact? If you’re privileged enough to wear the black jersey, don’t you just get on and play no matter who the coach is?

Liam N: I don’t see it being a major distraction for the players, given it will be sorted by mid-April.

Moderator: There has been a lot of talk about Razor’s temperament. He’s a colourful character who seems to wear his heart on his sleeve. Is that a good thing in an All Blacks coach, or will we see him tone the breakdancing down if he gets the job?

Liam N: If Razor is appointed he won’t alter his inherent characteristics. In any situation you want coaches to retain their authenticity. There’s no point trying to change who they are.

Callum R: Hearing a bit of sauce that someone in club footy in Taranaki is making some moves? Known as Smurfounga or something?

Liam N: You seem to have the scoop here but I have heard similar rumblings about a highly regarded transformative coach who struggles with grammar. Watch this space.