Michael Guerin: Bookies react to Rugby World Cup minnows' efforts

Samoa's Alesana Tuilagi, left, evades the tackle of Namibia's Jacques Burger during their Rugby World Cup game in Rotorua. Photo / AP

The odds are closing on tournament's small fry after first round

The minnows may have been the darlings of the Rugby World Cup's opening weekend, but they could become a nightmare for punters who follow them into the second week.

Not one team was able to beat the points spread offered by bookmakers last weekend, Australia getting the closest to their expected 30-point winning margin when they trumped the Italians by 26 points.

Punters worldwide quickly realised the trend and heavily backed the underdogs to make the most of their points start and bookmakers took a pounding.

"I think everybody realised after about three games these matches were going to be closer than we thought and we had to tighten up heaps of our markets," said TAB bookie Mark Stafford. "But we still got punished by people backing the minnows. Badly."

After the action, comes the reaction, bookmakers now providing far smaller points starts for teams heading into this weekend's action. And that provides punters with a chance to jump back on the elite teams because the longer the tournament goes, the harder it becomes for the minnows.

Case in point, Samoa's thrashing of a tired Namibia yesterday.

While weather could restrict the scoring in Hamilton tomorrow night, the All Blacks getting only a 53.5-point start from what is effectively Japan's second XV could be termed an overreaction.

As brave as the Japanese are, they will struggle to stay within 60 points of the All Blacks, especially as scoring points against them to keep the gap tight will be difficult.

Daniel Carter's absence will obviously help the Japanese but with Colin Slade shovelling the ball wider, players such as Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui and Cory Jane could cause chaos.

The smaller Northern Hemisphere teams in particular - Japan, Romania, Georgia and even the United States - will struggle to keep in contact with the glamour teams in the next fortnight as their player depth and conditioning become an issue, so punters could be wise to start taking margin betting more seriously.

Overall, the opening weekend did little to change favouritism for who will lift Bill on October 23, New Zealand still the $1.70 favourites and Australia hovering between $3.80 and $4.50 around the world.

The best money on offer for the All Blacks is $1.74 with betting exchange Betfair, already holding A$5 million ($6.25 million) on the final result.

"Punters are still cautious after the slow All Black start, so the overall winner market is one we expected to start really changing come quarter-finals time," said Stafford.

The biggest market mover has been Richard Kahui, to be the tournament's leading try scorer.

He is favourite with many agencies after scoring two last Friday and being selected to start tomorrow night, whereas Israel Dagg won't get a chance to add to his tally until next week at the earliest.

Kahui's $5.50 price last night is a far cry from the $50 punters could get for him as top try scorer just last Wednesday morning.

MONEYMAKERS

* Take the All Blacks giving away 53.5 points against a weakened Japan, even without Carter.

* Ireland get a 12.5-point start from Australia and have a decent RWC record against them.