Michael Guerin: Best betting is one game at a time

The All Blacks perform the Haka during the Rugby World Cup 2011. Photo / Getty Images

Here is a word of advice for anyone thinking about backing the All Blacks to win the Rugby World Cup: don't.

Not because they won't win but because a weight of money accumulated over four years means the odds simply aren't in your favour any more.

But there is a way to cheat the system if you think playing a confused French team on Saturday night has the All Blacks set to go through the tournament unbeaten.

The All Blacks have been favourites to win this tournament since betting opened up to four years ago and are now rated $1.60 chances by the New Zealand TAB but as low as $1.45 with bookmakers in Australia.

The best price available worldwide is $1.65.

The $1.60 is still way too tight because if you are smart, brave and patient enough, you could get a return of $1.85 with far less risk.

If you think the All Blacks are going to lift the Cup you presumably think they are going to beat France on Saturday night and whip Canada next week.

After which we are into sudden death rugby so from this point onwards either we win everything or your $1.60 bet loses.

But if, for example, you were thinking of having $100 on the All Blacks at that price, you would be better off simply putting that same $100 on them game by game each week.

They are paying $1.10 to beat France, and probably $1.01 next week against Canada, although you could even ignore that game.

A likely quarter-final clash against Argentina or Scotland would see an All Black price around $1.08 against Argentina or $1.05 against Scotland.

Next up, all going well would be South Africa or Australia, remembering that team must have won the strongest quarter-final so will be carrying some hype, so the All Blacks would have to be paying at least $1.25 in such a semifinal.

Then it will be a Northern Hemisphere team or at a stretch Samoa in the final. If it is France or England that might push the All Black price out to $1.25 because teams don't start much shorter in World Cup finals.

Add those dividends up by reinvesting your $100 (or whatever unit you bet in) and you have a dividend of at least $1.85, giving you 25 more cents of profit per dollar invested than a straight win bet placed today.

And the beauty of that system is if Dan Carter or Richie McCaw gets injured along the way you can bale out of the bet at any stage after each game, whereas an outright bet on them now to win the tournament could still be scuttled by injury.

While they should trounce France on Saturday the $1.10 price isn't worth chasing on its own, so punters should look elsewhere for value this week.

The minnows have started to crack under the pressure, especially in the last 20 minutes of their games.

The best way to exploit this is to back the bigger teams with the points starts, or even live betting, where you can back the big guns to cover exaggerated points spreads at half time knowing they will usually score more points in the second half as depth off the bench kicks in.